Show Me Your Homework

The COVID-19 pandemic drove many white-collar industries to allow employees to work from their homes.  Two years later, most of those employees continue to work from out of the office on at least a part-time basis.

This ‘work from anywhere’ economy has made employers and employees consider whether productivity is as high now as it was back when most commuted to and worked from an office.  More often than not, the answer is different depending on your point of view.

Almost without exception, I hear employees say they are as productive.  They say that’s because they work more hours due to no commuting, or they aren’t distracted by water cooler conversations, or they are simply able to work outside of the normal 8am-5pm workday.

But the employer answer, and I think the correct one, is that there’s no way workers are as productive working from anywhere as they are working from the office.  Just the lack of peer supervision and accountability is enough for one to realize there isn’t as much getting done, nor getting done as quickly.

I’ve worked in large offices, small offices, and from home.  While I like to think I’m wired in a way that it made no difference, I generally got more done in less time by working in an office environment.  Sure I worked more hours, but that’s because I wasn’t as efficient in what I needed to get done.  And while the office has its distractions, everywhere else has as many, or more.

Employees want employers to think they’re as productive, because they want to keep their newfound flexibility to basically work when they want.  They’ve convinced themselves they somehow work harder and smarter outside of the office, by saying they do.  They're basically lying to themselves.

It's great that we've evolved into a hybrid work environment society; I'm all for it.  It's better for families, and better for overall life balance in general.  Just don't tell me as much is getting accomplished.

A Tale Of Two Ceremonies

On a fairly regular basis these days, we hear about some new attempt at breaking a Guinness World Record.  It's typically something very odd and not at all useful, like the world's largest popcorn ball or the world's largest group hug.

With that in mind, I would now like to submit setting a new useless record earlier this month:  The first ever invited, attending guest at a gay wedding, a catholic priest ordination, and an interracial wedding, all within the span of seven days in the state of Iowa.  I have no proof, but I defy anyone to tell me it's been done before.

But this blog entry isn't going to be about setting records.  It's going to be about the gay wedding and the religious ordination, and the wild juxtaposition of those two events.

I don't want to spend the time or words to describe everything I saw and/or experienced at these occasions.  Instead, I'm going to break it down like this.....

Within a week's time, I attended two ceremonies.  I'd describe one of those ceremonies as joyful, colorful, and spontaneous.  The other I'd describe as subdued, dark, and ritualistic.

One of the ceremonies promoted working together as equals to create a better life.  The other ceremony literally called for the obedience of one party to another.

One of the ceremonies was a manifestation of newer civil rights in America.  The other ceremony went out of its way to applaud the recent elimination of long-standing civil rights.

One of the ceremonies seemed like it was the start of a relationship with unlimited growth potential.  The other ceremony seemed like it was the start of a relationship destined to shrink in size and value.

And ultimately, one of the ceremonies was completely non-judgmental, while the other ceremony judged the first to be depraved and worthy of being banned.

Notice that I haven't identified which event I believed them to be.  Which do you think was which?

Don't get me wrong, I care for the people involved in all of these ceremonies, including the aforementioned interracial marriage.  The (young) participants chose to make an open public expression of their love for someone or something else, and I was among hundreds or family members and friends there to unconditionally support them.

That said, I've never experienced a greater feeling of dissonance than I did during those seven days.

Dear Graduating Class of 2022

After two years of restrictions, it seems we re-emerged to a more normal time of high school and college graduation ceremonies.  So without further adieu, time for my annual address:

To the graduating class of 2022,

So, did it seem normal?  Your senior year, I mean.

The last two graduating classes had their senior years ruined, or at least interrupted, by a pandemic.  Yours was more like the pre-pandemic days, with the possible exception of having to wear a piece of cloth over your face from time-to-time. (But curiously, not when you were jammed together at extra-curricular school activities.)

If it did seem normal, I hope you enjoyed it, because if you're doing it right, that should be the end of your 'normal' for a very long time.  You'll either be going to a different school or starting a job.  Either way, the salad days of letting your family take care of you are over.

I had to say should be over, because these days, a great many of you will still be living with your family.  I'm well aware of the reasons why -- too many expenses, not enough income, blah blah blah.  These are things you could have mitigated with a little planning and grit.  And perhaps one more thing.....a better job by your family.

Yep, if you aren't ready to graduate, I want to say that's all on you, but I can't do that anymore.  There are too many complicit parents / families who are more than willing to let you stay at home for as long as you want, with virtually no accountability from you.  It's beyond weird that this happens, but it's almost become routine, and the pandemic made it even worse.

So you're probably asking, why should I make life hard on myself when I can live at home with free room and board and car and laundry service and probably much more?

I have one good answer -- because you're missing out on the prime fun years of your life!  That bulletproof age that exists around your early twenties, when you're young and can be both responsible and irresponsible at the same time.  You aren't going to get the most out of that by living at home.

Go to college.  Get a job.  Find roommates, or for that matter, just a mate.  But for the love of god, don't let your family allow you to stay in the same house where you grew up.

Don't let that be your normal.

The Real Killers

The United States of America just suffered another mass shooting of elementary school children, this time in Texas.   I wrote about the last one(!) in 2012, and I basically predicted this one a week later.

If it isn’t already obvious, nothing has changed in the last 10 years.  I take that back, something has changed – it’s even easier now to buy guns, especially assault-style weapons. 

The gutless politicians governing our gun-crazy culture love their power too much to do anything about mass shootings.  These Republicans – and let's call a spade a spade, that’s who they are – accept millions of dollars from the gun lobby to retain their legislative ‘jobs’ in return for making it easy in this country to buy plentiful guns and ammunition.

These pathetic grifters love money and power more than the safety of the citizenry.  As cover, they try to blame mass shootings on everything else but guns.  Then after some time goes by, they try to water down our gun laws even more, as directed by their gun-lobby (Read: NRA) overlords.

It's hard to think how much less safer our gun laws can be when an 18 year-old in Texas can buy assault weapons without a comprehensive background check or waiting period.  How hard is it to correlate that with the fact the United States is the only nation in the world where mass shootings regularly happen?

In a way, the gun lobby has had it right all along.  Guns don't kill people, people kill people -- especially if they're a politician with an R behind their name.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2022

After a three-year, Covid-19-related hiatus from in-person shareholder meetings, we die-hard Berkshire Hathaway meeting attendees met in Omaha for Woodstock For Capitalists.

There were few changes from the last gathering in 2019.  Most importantly, the great Warren Buffett (age 91) and Charlie Munger (age 98) were again sitting on a stage answering questions for about five hours.  Vice-Chairs Greg Abel (future CEO) and Ajit Jain were also on stage to answer questions in the morning session.

Buffett seemed particularly in a mood to talk, as there were far fewer questions than in past years -- he even joked about it after the lunch break, noting they'd only answered seven questions in the morning session, apparently because someone (him) talked a lot.

My summary of the environment and some of what was said:

• A smaller crowd than in the past, probably due to the pandemic and people getting used to watching the live stream of the meeting.  Also, there was more room to roam in the convention area, things were more spread out.

• These guys hate the way so many approach stock market investing.  They treat it like a 'gambling parlor' now that securities prices frequently are unattached to fundamentals. Munger in particular brought up Robinhood (investment platform) and how people are now paying dearly for leveraging their money and on their misplaced faith in it.

• As much as these guys hate the stock market casino action, they REALLY hate cryptocurrency, which they believe is bad for stable currency economies and will be worthless one day.  Buffett made the same comment about it that he used for gold investors years ago, which is why invest in a non-producing asset that's only value is what another is willing to pay for it.

• On cryptocurrency, here's Munger's exact quote: "Well, in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else. And bitcoin does all three. In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s very likely to go to zero.  In the second place, it’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve system and the national currency system, which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and company on.  And third, it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China, and with all of our presumed advantages of civilization -- we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China."

• Upon answering a question about investing during inflation like we have now, Buffett said the best investment anyone can make is to invest in themselves.  Make yourself an expert at what you like to do -- if you're one of the best, people will pay you regardless, and you will do well.

• Also on inflation.....Buffett mentioned there was about $800 billion of Federal Reserve cash in circulation 10 or 15 years ago, and now there’s something like $2.2 trillion of currency in circulation.  That’s about $7,000 per person, every man, woman, and child in the U.S., a lot of which has come from the stimulus programs due to the pandemic.  He said it's no wonder we have inflation now -- but we probably had to do what we did.

Of  course, there was so much more.  Below is a link to this meeting and others.

https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/

Dear Lord Baby Jesus

 A new NASCAR (stock car racing) season began about a month ago.  This is something I generally don't care about, along with IndyCar or Formula 1 or any other auto racing.  Just not my thing.

However, it did remind me of one of my all-time favorite movies, Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby.  It includes one of my all-time favorite movie scenes, with Ricky Bobby's family and best friend Cal gathered around a table to eat.  It goes on for a long time, ranging from saying grace to children verbally ridiculing adults.

That doesn't sound funny, but it is. Here's just the script for the saying grace part.....

Carley: Supper's ready! Come on, y'all!  I've been slaving over this for hours!

Ricky Bobby (RB): Dear Lord baby Jesus...or as our brothers to the south call you, Jesus...we thank you so much for this bountiful harvest of Domino's, KFC...and the always delicious Taco Bell.  I just want to take time to say thank you for my family...my two beautiful, beautiful, handsome, striking sons...Walker and Texas Ranger...or T.R., as we call him...and of course, my red-hot smoking wife, Carley...who is a stone-cold fox.  Also wanna thank you for my best friend, Cal Naughton Jr...who's got my back no matter what.

RB and Cal: Shake and Bake.

RB: Dear Lord baby Jesus, we also thank you for my wife's father, Chip. We hope that you can use your baby Jesus powers...to heal him and his horrible leg. And it smells terrible and the dogs are always bothering with it. Dear tiny infant Jesus, we...

Carley: Hey, you know, sweetie...Jesus did grow up. You don't always have to call him "baby." It's odd and off-putting to pray to a baby.

RB: Well, I like the Christmas Jesus best and I'm saying grace. When you say grace, say it to grownup Jesus, teenage Jesus...bearded Jesus, whoever you want.

Carley: You know what I want? I want you to do this grace good, so that God will let us win tomorrow.

RB: Dear tiny Jesus...in your golden-fleece diapers, with your tiny, little, fat, balled-up fists...pawing at the air...

Chip: He was a man. He had a beard.

RB: Look, I like the baby version the best, do you hear me? I win the races and I get the money.

Carley: Ricky, finish the damn grace.

Cal: I like to picture Jesus in a tuxedo T-shirt...because it says, like, "I wanna be formal...but I'm here to party too." Because I like to party, so I like my Jesus to party. I like to picture Jesus as a ninja fighting off evil samurai. I like to think of Jesus, like, with giant eagle's wings. And singing lead vocals for Lynyrd Skynyrd...with, like, a angel band. And I'm in the front row, and I'm hammered drunk.

Carley: Hey, Cal? Why don't you just shut up?

Cal: Yes, ma'am.

RB: Dear 8-pound, 6-ounce, newborn infant Jesus...don't even know a word yet...just a little infant and so cuddly, but still omnipotent...we just thank you for all the races I've won and the 21.2 million dollars...

Carley: Love that money!

RB: …that I have accrued over this past season. Also, due to a binding endorsement contract...that stipulates I mention Powerade at each grace...I just wanna say that Powerade is delicious...and it cools you off on a hot summer day. And we look forward to Powerade's release of Mystic Mountain Blueberry.  Thank you for all your power and your grace, dear baby God. Amen.

All: Amen.

Cal: That was a hell of a grace, man.

Walker: You nailed that like a split hog!

RB: I'm not gonna lie to you, it felt good.

Texas Ranger: Dad, you made that grace your bitch.

Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.