Dear Graduating Class of 2024

Congratulations, Class of 2024!  You got to start your journey during the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, and now many of you are, or should be, ending it during the year democracy may die.  What is it with you?

Never mind that.  Think about this.....I've often said that all possible graduation commencement addresses may have already been given.

Think about the tens of thousands of speeches given every year by valedictorians and featured guests, over decades, and it's hard to believe every theme hasn't been covered.  I've been doing this annual post since 2012, and I'm not even going to pretend I haven't repeated a theme, or at least infiltrated one.

With that in mind, my advice to you this year will be an addendum of advice I gave from last year.  In 2023, I talked about how being 'woke' was generally a good thing, not a bad thing.

Which brings me to now, when we've seen small but noteworthy protests on college campuses over the Israel-Hamas war.  More specifically, the protests allege Palestinian genocide by Israel for its bombardment of Gaza, and ask for the war to end.  Some of the protests have not been peaceful, and have disrupted graduation ceremonies.

Look, it's good that you twenty-year-olds are so concerned about genocide that you'd want to actively protest about it, and bring awareness to an issue for which you care.  That's good woke.

However, it's dumb that some of you would protest in a way that threatens or physically harms people or property.  That's bad woke.

And to what end do you protest?  Once you've brought awareness to the issue, and maybe got the college trustees to meet about defunding some part of their endowment, you should declare victory and leave.  How does ruining graduation ceremonies for yourself or others advance your cause?

Also, let's face what should have been an obvious truth -- after graduation, when campuses empty out and there are no cameras to record you, the protests were going to end.  They would have ended soon anyway, as our very short American attention spans lost interest.

So to the Class of 2024 I say, choose your wokeness wisely.  There will be plenty of reasons to be offended in life.  If you're ignoring or amplifying all of them, you're doing it wrong.  

Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.

A Failed History Lesson

“Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”  So goes the famous quote attributed to Sir Winston Churchill.

This quote came to life for me again in the past week, after watching parts of two different, public television documentaries on the Vietnam War.   The main one was a new, 10-part series called The Vietnam War from Ken Burns.  The other was from a couple of years ago called Dick Cavett’s Vietnam.

I was only in the single-digits old during the Vietnam War, so I didn’t understand then what was happening, either in Southeast Asia or in America.  I only have a few real recollections of it.  One was a day around 1970, when my family was watching a television scroll of calendar days next to numbers.  (I didn’t realized this until many years later, but they were looking at the draft lottery, and probably wondering if a randomly drawn number would send a loved one to the war.)  Another memory was the day the war informally ended, in April 1975, watching TV reports of the last people being lifted by helicopter from the U.S. embassy roof in Saigon.

So, watching parts of these documentaries was new information for me.  It’s hard to understand even now how much of a dumb, tactical, human failure it was for the U.S.  Tremendous, unnecessary sacrifice and loss of life, just to keep a small, remote territory from becoming Communist.  But that’s the way it was then, Communism was our enemy, and we were blind to our limits to contain it.

What really struck me, however, is how similar things were to the (current) U.S. 'wars' in Iraq and Afghanistan.  They also started out as something that would be quickly managed, and with a fair amount of support after the 9/11 terrorist attacks.  But again, we were blind to our limits to defeat an idea (terrorism), and the length of the wars and their eventual human cost, which turned American attitudes against it.

Not only are there general similarities, but as the Cavett documentary showed, there are fascinating similarities with the personalities involved then and now.   I thought of a number of them within a few minutes as I was watching:

Lyndon Johnson = George W. Bush

Robert McNamara = Donald Rumsfeld

Dick Cavett = Jon Stewart or Stephen Colbert

Warren Beatty and Jane Fonda = George Clooney (and Jane Fonda?)

Muhammad Ali = ?  Unfortunately, no contemporary famous athlete compares to him, and no contemporary athlete suffered like him.

It’s was 40 years between the Vietnam War and the Iraq / Afghanistan conflicts.  Did we learn anything from history?  Now it’s been 50 years since the Vietnam War.  Have we learned anything yet?

It Doesn't Mean Anything

In the past decade or so, we have become an nation of symbols for causes.  These symbols might come in the form of ribbons or wristbands (think LiveStrong, for cancer awareness), or even something as simple as a color (think pink, for breast cancer awareness).

People often show off many different symbols for many different causes, but they all have one thing in common:  They don't often help the cause.

I've always thought the best example of this is people who put magnetic 'I Support Our Troops' ribbons on their vehicles.  This got to be a big deal while Americans were fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and it was all very nice, but it didn't do a single thing for the soldier or his/her family.  Not one thing.  But hey, that vehicle is supporting the troops, right?

Another more recent example are the various symbols to show support for the families (or is it the victims?) of the Newtown, CT shooting.  Yes, it was a terrible tragedy, but prayers and ribbons aren't going to do anything for either the families or the victims.  If people really want to do something that matters, they need to speak out publicly against a crazy gun culture that allows the sale of semi-automatic weapons.  That will not completely stop these types of killings, but it would at least save some lives, and maybe at least one good thing can come from those deaths.

Full disclosure - I've been a long-time wearer of the yellow LiveStrong wristband, a symbol for cancer awareness, the one that started the entire wristband craze.  While I wear it to remind me of those I know who had/have cancer, I also actually do something about it by donating every year to the American Cancer Society.  I get a kick out of all the people who simply stopped wearing it once it lost it's cache', and again this year once Lance Armstrong fell from grace.  Do they suddenly not care about cancer?  Or maybe they only care when the cause or its leader is popular?

So if you wear red or pink or purple, or a ribbon or a wristband or a magnet, stop for a moment and ask yourself:  Are you truly making things better for those you say you support, or are you really just pretending, as a way to make yourself look better?

Piss On The Taliban

This one is for all the bleeding hearts out there who are outraged (outraged, I tell you!) over the just-released video showing a U.S. Marine sniper team urinating on dead bodies in Afghanistan.

Are you kidding me!?  The only outrage in this whole thing should be directed at the namby-pamby civilian and military personnel who are making the dead people the victims, and the U.S. troops the enemy.

This is not torture.  This is not Abu Ghraib.  This is a group of Marines who are probably damn tired of being away from their families in godforsaken country full of people trying to kill them (possibly including the pissees), and who want to exact a little bit of mental revenge.

Is this really so hard for us to accept?  I can imagine it now, one of these Marines says, "Screw this place.  These people are trying to kill us, and nobody at home gives a damn because they're too busy trying to decide whether to buy the 'grande' or the 'venti' today.  We got them before they got us, and since there won't be any parades, let's celebrate our victory by pissing on them!"  And the other Marines say, "Hell yes!  Great idea!"  And finally one of the dumber Marines says, "Yeah, and let's put it on video so we can show everybody back home some day!"

I get that the U.S. / Obama administration has to officially condemn this conduct.  We don't want to come off looking like barbarians.  The thing of it is, the Taliban and other radical Islamic terrorist group are going to think that about Americans regardless of what we do.  They would kill us in a second if given the chance, no questions asked.

What I don't need to hear are any religious scholars out there suggesting that somehow the U.S. is desecrating Islam.  Does anyone really believe these Marines were urinating on these people as a symbol of their hatred for Muslims?  Of course not, they couldn't care less about their religious beliefs.  The Marines are simply showing their disrespect for some people who probably just tried to kill them.

This is war.  There are no rules in war, at least not in combat.  Did we follow any rules when we captured/killed Bin Laden?  If there were rules, the U.S. would surely lose the so-called war on terror, because the enemy sure as hell isn't following them.

I hope the way this plays out is, soon there will be a groundswell of support for these Marines.  Most Americans are going to see through the pious rhetoric and realize that no one was actually harmed in the shooting of this video - although someone was clearly harmed beforehand.  And piss on them!

The Diminishing Returns of Religion

Anyone who has taken a basic economics class has been introduced to the concept of diminishing returns. In short, this is defined as the point at which an increased unit of production generates lower (not greater) unit returns.

This is also how I would currently define the state of religion, both personally and in the world. Putting more effort into it isn't going to improve things, and at least from a global perspective, it probably makes things worse.

Let's start with the personal. I've been a practicing Roman Catholic since childhood. This included 12 years of Catholic schooling, which in turn included 8 years of nearly daily mass atttendence. After 40+ years, I've attended church services many thousands of times. I long ago learned the routine, the readings, and the symbolism by heart.

So I have faith, and I consider myself well indoctrinated in that faith. The question is, what more is there to know? As long as I lead a life dedicated to respect and the betterman of man and society, it's difficult to see the marginal benefit of continued adherence to the recommended daily/weekly/annual religious rituals.

Plus, over the past several years I've come to realize that the church I follow isn't exactly a role model. Pedophile priests, as well as other politicized Vatican scandals, have conspired to turm me away. And the Catholic church's unrelenting dogma related to gender roles, celibacy, etc. haven't helped. The rest of the world is evolving, my church is not. (How did it ever progress out of the Crusades era?)

My personal religious beliefs take a back seat to the larger world view, however. The fact is, religion is Earth's #1 creator of wars. Name any past or present international military conflict, and you will find that differing religious beliefs are at its core. Hell, even our Civil War was essentially a morality-based disagreement over how humans should be treated.

This is not a good thing. It's maybe the irony of ironies that religion is supposed to give people a reason to live, and we mostly use it to explain why, how, and when people should die.

In spite of this, I do believe that religion is a net good thing for society. If nobody believed in an afterlife, our civilization would be pretty barbaric. We might still be clubbing each other in caves.

But from my perspective, we've reached the point of diminishing returns.