Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.

We're Not All Experts

I've been working in the retirement / investment planning world for a long time now.  I don't recall anyone I've ever talked to about retirement, meaning hundreds of people, expressing much confidence in their retirement planning.  There are just too many variables, and too many programs like social security and Medicare they don't understand.

However, when it comes to talking to many of those same people about investing, there is not only confidence, but more recently overconfidence about how to do things.  Why is that?  Consider a few macro-reasons:

1) Thanks to American innovation and capitalism, the stock market goes up over long periods of time.  It also goes down, sometimes sharply, for short periods of time, but people eventually forget about that short-term pain.  So, over long periods of time, they see their money grow, and they assume this means they're great investors.  In fact, all they've really done is to stumble into one of the greatest passive investment strategies there is -- put money in stocks, and do nothing.  This works fine, until retirement, when you no longer want too much invested in stocks.

2) The proliferation of financial media outlets in the past two decades has given people many opportunities to be 'enlightened' by so-called investing experts.  Watch enough TV or read enough on the internet, and soon people are convinced that they too, are experts by simply following the unsolicited advice of these other so-called experts.  If anyone actually tracked their results, they'd be disappointed, but rarely does anyone track the performance of a media-expert.  Also, no one wants to be inconvenienced by the truth.

3) A perfect pandemic storm that includes the introduction of no-fee securities trading, a massive surge in technology stocks, and social media platforms and influencers.  Many in the new 'work-from anywhere'  crowd have only been able to do this investing thing for a short time, during a prolonged market upswing.  At this point, they think the stock market and their investments only go up.  Their confirmation bias will ultimately lead them into one of the inevitable sharp short-term market corrections.  Unlike others, this millennial-heavy group isn't likely to have the patience or discipline to keep from exiting their positions.

Investing doesn't have to be complicated, but it decidedly isn't a simple thing.  The only sure thing is, being overconfident in one's ability to do it will lead to a bad outcome.

Ratings > Perspective

Today there was a funeral for a Des Moines police officer, one of two killed last week in a late night interstate highway collision.  The officers were transporting an inmate from another jurisdiction when they were hit by a presumed drunk driver, who was driving on the wrong side of the road.

As with the other officer buried earlier in the week, there were scores of other law enforcement personnel in attendance from other parts of Iowa and the country.  That’s not a surprise.  What is a surprise, at least to me, is the production scope of the visitation and funeral ceremonies, and the media attention being given to these events.

For the past four days, main roads have been shut down for extended periods so the bodies could be transported from funeral homes to churches to burial sites.  These transports have included processions of dozens, perhaps hundreds, of police and fire department vehicles, with hundreds, if not thousands, of people paying their respects at the churches, or by standing along these procession routes.  And in something I believe to be unprecedented, there has been live TV coverage of the funerals on multiple stations.

Don’t get me wrong, the death of these police officers (plus two others, including the driver of the other car and the prisoner being transported) is tragic.  But can we at least agree that relative to other tragic deaths, the amount of attention being given to their funerals is somewhat disproportional to what happened.

Yes, they were on duty, and the law enforcement code rightfully gives them and their families an outpouring of support and respect.  However, they were not doing anything heroic.  Being killed by a (allegedly) drunk driver isn’t the same as being killed by taking a bullet, or running into a burning house, or trying to quell a riot.  The manner in which they died could have, and has, happened to countless others before them, both on the job and off.  And while those incidents often garner much support and attention, it isn’t anything like this.  Not even close.

To put it into more perspective, consider a military member killed on the other side of the world in Iraq or Afghanistan or some other god forsaken place.  Yes, the military gives that person tremendous respect, and the funeral is given much attention.  However, it receives nowhere near the attention that the public and media are giving to these officers.  And let’s be real, that military member deserves at least as much, probably more attention, given their sacrifice.  They are doing something extraordinary, just being on the other side of the world for months or years, regardless of the cause of death.

I blame the local media for whipping up public sentiment beyond the pale.  They’ve made it a race to see which TV or radio or newspaper or even social media outlet can show that they have more empathy about the local police officer deaths.  Consequently, people are paying more than the usual amount of attention.  That isn’t the fault of the officers, or their families, or I suppose even the police department.  But the whole thing is out of proportion nonetheless.

It reminds me of many years ago when Princess Diana died, and then Mother Teresa of Calcutta died days later.  Diana’s funeral became worldwide spectacle, covered live by international media.  Mother Teresa’s funeral deserved every bit as much coverage, probably more given the circumstances, but only grudgingly got some.  Ratings, you know.  It might have gotten none at all without the guilt of the networks for their over-the-top coverage of Diana.

I’ve privately mentioned my surprise to a few folks, and no one disagrees, but no one dares say it out loud.  Let’s just say the next time a local soldier is killed, I’d better see wall-to-wall media coverage about it.  It’s just a matter of time before another law enforcement or military funeral doesn’t have the same coverage, when there will be some public backlash.

My Police State

Last week, our little neck of the woods got a bit of national attention for the way law enforcement handled a home raid.  To very briefly summarize, a suburban police force sent in multiple officers in SWAT gear to execute a search warrant at a house in a credit card theft and fraud case.

The homeowner and his do-gooder national blogger sympathizers questioned the heavy-handedness of the raid, including using a battering ram to open the door.  The police chief countered that the homeowner was a registered gun owner, and that they used the information they had to make a decision.

You'd think the libertarian side of me would agree this was too much police force.  You'd think wrong.  Let's recap the what happened and the outcome:

* The homeowner admitted he had a 9mm gun that he drew but then re-holstered when he heard it was the police.  And he was in the bathroom when he did this.  Carries his gun everywhere, I guess.

* This suburban home had surveillance cameras outside and inside the house - what suburban Iowa home does that?  Isn't that a bit of a tell that the homeowner has something to hide?  The police chief noted that they disabled or covered up the cameras as standard procedure, so others could not monitor approaching officers.

* There were three other unrelated people in the house, along with the homeowner's mother, who's probably really the actual homeowner.  Two of them were arrested on unrelated warrants, and time will tell if they were involved with or know who was involved in the credit card theft and fraud.

So to recap, not only was there potential criminal activity in the house, and at least one loaded weapon, there were also actual criminals.  But somehow, the story is all about the manner in which the police chose to protect themselves.

We don't have a police state in Iowa (or the U.S.), and bloggers or media-types who use examples like this to say otherwise should give it a rest.

Watching Basketball In Black And White

No sport does more to perpetuate white racial stereotypes than basketball.  They even made a successful movie about it years ago - White Men Can't Jump.

The conventional wisdom is, white players aren't as 'athletic' as black players, meaning they aren't as quick, don't jump as high, etc., and ergo, they aren't as good.

Oh, white players are still very good, just not as good, generally speaking. Considering the best of the best of today's players, it's hard to argue.

I can't help but think of this while watching this year's University of Iowa men's basketball team.  Let's just say it has a high proportion of pasty white, almost sickly looking players.  I'm talking tall-but-gaunt-looking players.

But very good, dare I say athletic, pasty white, almost sickly looking players.  All right, one of them is a bigger guy, which is important, because sometimes four of these whiteys are on the court at once.  And a couple of them are Iowa natives, so that's good, too.

So the question is, how long before someone in the mainstream sports media, or even the non-mainstream media, dare to assume verbally or in writing that this Iowa team isn't 'athletic' (Read: black) enough to compete against the best teams?

That mistake is made almost every year with Wisconsin.  I guess they'll be able to compete with them, huh?

More East Coast Media Bias

I've written before about how weather events affecting the major east coast cities get so much more media coverage than if they occur in other major cities.  Today I'm writing about a similar phenomenon that impacts sports.

Why does it seem that whenever a pro sports team from New York or Boston wins a title, it's treated by the media as bigger than when it happens anywhere else?  It's happening again now, after Boston won the World Series yesterday.

That's fine, congrats to them, but just like the two other times they won in the last decade, it's getting so much more media coverage than it deserves.  Let's just admit, it's a lot less than when San Francisco or St. Louis each won it twice recently.

Today, national sportswriters and broadcasters are saying Boston's win 'transcended' sports and "defined' the city, while also fawning over the fact that while they've won it before, it had been almost 90 years since they won it at home.  The thing is, no one outside the northeastern seaboard thinks nor cares about those things, especially for a baseball team that finished last in their division last year.

This media self-infatuation carries over to football, too.  In the past decade or so, when Boston (New England) or New York (Giants) won a combined 5 Super Bowls, the media coverage is both breathless and endless.  But when a place like Indianapolis or New Orleans or Green Bay wins it, the coverage is much more muted.

We can only hope no Boston or New York teams win any pro sports titles again in our lifetime.  Meanwhile, this once again proves my theory that for all of the so-called toughness of the major east coast cities, they really are drama queens when it comes to wanting more national attention for events that happen everywhere.

A List

Ever since the USA Today newspaper made bits of information popular, and David Letterman made top ten lists popular, everybody tries to present news in the form of a list.  "Everybody" includes not only media outlets, but other organizations who are paid to create the list (either directly or indirectly through advertising) by the very entities they are listing.

As an example, last week something called the American Institute for Economic Research came out with a list of the best college towns in America.  Who knows what this institute actually does or why it exists - I looked at their web site and still couldn't figure it out.  But I know it creates lists.  It made news here because both Ames (Iowa State University) and Iowa City (University of Iowa) were on the list at number 2 and number 4, respectively.

So I've decided I don't want to be left out.  From time to time I'm going to blog some of my own lists.  Nobody asked me nor paid me for them, but since they are lists, they must have some meaning.

Here's my first one.....

Top Ten U.S. Places I've Never Been To But I Think Would Be Interesting To Visit:
10.  Tucson
9.  Hilton Head
8.  Lake Tahoe
7.  Yellowstone National Park
6.  Anchorage
5.  Augusta (Maine or Georgia)
4.  Portland (Maine or Oregon)
3.  Any city in Hawaii not named Honolulu
2.  New Orleans
1.  Key West

Dancing Like A Dad

What follows is the text of a September 27th article written for The Des Moines Register (specifically for its young professional supplement, Juice) by Mike Draper, the fairly well-known owner of the Des Moines t-shirt store, Raygun.  (I would link to it, but their web site only allows so many non-subscription visits.)  This should be required reading for every Iowan, and maybe everybody else:

Governor Terry Branstad would be a lot more likeable if he just never opened his mouth. Whenever he starts to give his opinion, I feel like a high schooler whose dad has decided to show off his dance moves in front of you and all your friends.

Most of his infractions have been pretty minor. There was his declaration this past May that companies “want to get out of California as quick as they can. We welcome them to Iowa.” Unfortunately, the shirts we’ve been saving for Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page have been gathering dust in our store since spring.

That was just after he called for a congressional investigation into the “pink slime smear campaign” as well as state laws against filming inside food factories. The last thing we want people to know is what they’re eating.

All TB has done, though, pales in comparison to his wall-to-wall B.S. editorial in The Des Moines Register earlier this month: “Obama has worn out his welcome.” It reads like something the Republican National Committee jotted down on a couple cocktail napkins, then attached our governor’s name. But if Branstad actually did write it (and more frightening, believes it), this isn’t your uncoordinated dad just dancing for all your friends, this is your dad stepping onto the “American Idol” stage.

“In Iowa,” Terry writes, “we know a thing or two about building success with our own two hands. ... We don’t look at our farms or our factories or our businesses and say, ‘Look what the government built.’ ”

Good god. He writes this from the center of a state that is up to its hog-nuts in federally subsidized agriculture, federally subsidized ethanol, and federally subsidized wind energy. He writes this within days of giving the largest economic subsidy in Iowa history to a foreign fertilizer production company. He writes this from a state whose governor declared he’d create 200,000 jobs (how a governor would do this without “picking winners or losers” needs to be explained to me). He writes this from a state whose commemorative quarter depicts a public school building painted by our most famous artist, Grant Wood, whose livelihood during the Depression was sustained by the Federal Art Project.

As a business owner who has never used a federally backed loan, who has never had a government contract, who has never really had any direct aid to speak of, I’d be in a good spot to claim that “I built it” if I wanted to sound like more of an a-hole than I already am. But I still can’t. After all, I was born into a stable home, in a stable state, educated K-12 in a public community school, graduated from college debt-free because of my parents, and opened a business in a building that was constructed with the help of Tax Increment Financing.

From direct help like the mortgage interest deduction to peripheral help like roads, everyone in America has taken some form of government assistance. Everyone wants government assistance cut, but not their government assistance. I can forgive 24-hour news commentators for making brash, incorrect declarations, because their news model is built on B.S. But I worry when our elected officials start to sound like our 24-hour news commentators.

At least Barack Obama is in luck: Branstad declares that he’s “not resting until Mitt Romney gets the votes to send him to the White House.” If his promise for Mitt gets as far as his promise to not pick winners and losers, Obama is in great shape.

Headline News

For the twelve-month period ending June 30, 2011, while the global economic news was mostly cloudy, equity investors enjoyed the equivalent of blue skies. Most developed and emerging-country stock markets had positive double-digit returns, some in excess of 30%.

If someone knew a year ago that global markets would stage such a broad-based rally, one would have assumed that trends in employment, housing, and financial distress were about to take a pronounced turn for the better. In fact, they have done nothing of the sort.

Somehow, despite gloomy financial page news that kept repeating itself, equity prices marched substantially higher.

Now, as equity prices have turned lower in the past month, and have become especially volitile in the past several days, the financial pages are again full of dire forecasts. Really, if you compare the headlines, it's just like last year.

No one knows if the stock market will react differently this year to similar news. Based on last year, however, we know one thing for certain – markets do not base their movements on proclamations from the financial media!

Remember the bottom line: Due to unforeseen events, no one can accurately predict the direction of markets. Rather than react to stormy news, you should act on what's already known, and consistently keep your financial plan and asset allocation both cost-effective and aligned with your risk tolerance.

More Things For Which I'm Not Thankful

A year ago today, on the cusp of Thanksgiving Day 2009, I made a brief list of things for which I was not thankful:
http://streffblog.blogspot.com/2009/11/im-thankful-for-this-but-not-for-that.html

Today, on the eve of Thanksgiving Day 2010, I bring you more of those things:

Far right AND left wing media personalities. I'm now convinced the lefties exist, just not in as great of numbers. I also hereby expand this to include anyone outside the political mainstream, media or not. (I'm looking at you, Bob Vander Plaats.)

Iraq / Afghanistan / North Korea.

Subsidies.

Homophobes. (Again, I'm looking at you, Bob Vander Plaats.)

People who oppose medical marijuana at the least, and who oppose criminalization of marijuana at the most.

Anyone working on commission.

Malingerers.

People who live unhealthy lifestyles, especially if they're smokers.

Not Everyone Cares About What You Do

So there's this lawyer from Des Moines who really spends his time being Mr. Adventurer Guy. He's tried to climb Mount Everest. He's tried to swim the English Channel. Not sure when he practices law, but he must have a high hourly rate or have a trust fund to take all this time off.

Anyway, although he's never been successful at climbing Everest or swimming the Channel, this year he's trying to do both again, the old "Peak and Pond' they call it. And to top it off, after swimming the Channel he's biking over to Tibet to get ready for Everest. He's calling it his World Triathlon.

Sounds cool, doesn't it? And I give him credit, he swam the Channel, and he's making his way over to Everest on the bike. But here's the thing - how do I know so much about this guy and what he's doing?

I know about it because this guy is a media whore! He has to make sure everybody knows about what a great adventurer he is, like he's Sir Richard Branson or something. Every time the guy goes on one of his treks, the stories appear in the paper and on TV, and I'm pretty sure they don't get the stories by word of mouth. Between trips he speaks to groups about his adventures, something I've snoozed through myself.

This year's quest, while admirable, has been the worst. This time he actually went out of his way speaking to raise money for his trip, convincing schools they could follow his quest on-line as some sort of geography lesson. Then the dude ran out of money to do that, even before getting on the bike. Sorry kids, but thanks for the free publicity!

Look, I hope the guy accomplishes his goal, but I don't need to know about it until after it's done, and everyone can live a good life without knowing about it at all. It seems the tree is falling in the forest, and he's terribly insecure that it won't make a sound if we all aren't around.

Maybe this guy should start living his life with a quite confidence instead of banging a gong every time he attempts to reach a personal goal. Some folks just don't understand - strangers don't care about you as much as you do.

East Coast Media Bias

A lot has been made over the years about media bias, especially as it relates to politics. Somebody is always breaking down a news report, looking for key words or angles that are questionably liberal or conservative. This is really stupid, because even if it is true (and Fox News, I'm looking at you again), the last I checked everyone has the free will to made up their own mind. (Exception: Those who watch Fox News seem inclined to just swallow anything that Glenn Beck or Bill O'Reilly or Sean Hannity will say.)

But when it comes to one topic - weather - there is no doubt that we have media bias. To wit, this week the top story on the national morning news shows was always Hurricane Earl. Even when Earl was just a baby storm thousands of miles from the U.S. east coast, we were so very concerned about the threat. Now that it's scraping along the east-northeastern seaboard as an average-sized hurricane, it's like the end of the world.

So we have a storm, with literally days to prepare for, that may or may not affect the U.S., but that doesn't matter. The east coast has the largest population concentration - also TV viewers - in the country, and the east coast based networks need to make sure the nation knows about a potential weather event that might ruin their Labor Day weekend plans.

Note to news media: THE OTHER 99% OF THE COUNTRY DOESN'T CARE ABOUT HURRICANE EARL. It's had to imagine how anyone taking precautions would be harmed by this storm, yet in places like the Midwest we lose lives and property to sudden weather events all of the time. Ever see that get this much media coverage? Of course not.

It doesn't matter if it's weather, or news, or sports, the east coasters are the drama queens of the U.S. We've got real issues to talk about that impact the entire country, maybe we could focus on that?