Dear Graduating Class of 2015

If it's the latter part of May, it's again time for my annual advice to graduating seniors.  I have both a college undergraduate and graduate student this year, so I'm going to say it with more meaning.

This year, I only want you to remember three things:

Challenge authority -- sometimes.  You've probably been taught to respect authority, and that's what you should do.  However, the racial tensions we're seeing now related to police actions against black citizens ought be enough to keep you from respecting authority without question.  The best way for anyone to avoid confrontations with authority is to follow the rules/laws.  Having said that, remember that absolute power corrupts absolutely.  To borrow half of a phrase from the late Ronald Reagan, respect, but verify.

Challenge religion -- mostly.  You've probably also been taught to be a God-fearing Christian, or Muslim, or Jew, or some other religion (but probably Christian).  There is more good about that than there is bad.  However, you should be wary of organized religion -- the kind that people use to justify all sorts of crazy, damaging ideas and actions.  Do you really want to live your entire secular life based on the rigid, non-secular, white-male interpretations of scripture supposedly written over 2000 years ago?  Instead, remember the words of Galileo Galilei: "I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use."

Challenge group-think -- always.  If too many people think the same thing, and those people only talk to each other, they think everybody agrees with them.  What other excuse is there for all of the far right candidates running for the 2016 republican presidential nomination, most of whom have no more chance than I do of becoming president?  On a related note, this is an overarching problem with all of today's politicians, who lack the courage and/or conviction to take a stance contrary to that of the dogma of their own political party.  You would do well to always remember the old saying, "Sometimes the majority only means that all the fools are on the same side."

Now, go out there and try to never move back in with your parents!

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2015

After a one-year absence due to a family wedding, I attended the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha last week.  So this year, I'm back to my own very limited summary of what Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger had to say.  And even though the former is now age 84 and the latter is age 91, it was another great time:

On current stock market valuation:
Buffett noted that any valuation measure of the stock market is skewed now by very low interest rates.  Corporate profits are worth a lot more if the government bond yield is 1% as opposed to 5%.  Is short, the market is undervalued if you assume interest rates will remain low, and slightly overvalued if you assume interest rates will return to something more historically normal.

On economists and forecasts:
Responding to a question about the direction of interest rates and the economy, Buffett used the opportunity to swipe at economists, suggesting that “any company that employs an economist has one employee too many.”  Munger noted that neither he nor Buffett predicted the current, prolonged low interest rate environment, and since they got that wrong, why anyone would want their opinion now?  Later, Munger added that the problem with [economist] pronouncements is that eventually they think they know something and “it would be better if they just said they were ignorant.”

On raising the minimum wage:
Buffett noted the problem of income inequality in the United States, but said that he didn’t see how raising the minimum wage cold make a big impact on it, because it would come at the cost of too many lost jobs.  He said increasing the earned income tax credit was a much better way.  Munger noted that he was a republican, but he agreed full with his democratic counterpart.  He considered raising the minimum wage to be counterproductive and “massively stupid.”   On the other hand, the earned income tax credit rewards and helps people who work.

On the behavior of activist investors:
Buffett said he didn’t see Berky ever being an activist investor target, even after he gave all of his shares to charity, because the whole would always be greater than the sum of its parts.  He went on to say some activism is stupid, particularly when activism results in stock repurchases.  That’s when things get silly, because often the buybacks occur when stocks are overpriced.  Munger was his typical blunt self, simply stating he couldn't think of any activist he’d want to marry into the family.

On making friends:
When asked about how to meet people and make a lot of friends, Munger unusually jumped in first and said that the only way he was able to get people to like him was to be very rich and very generous!  Buffett said to look at other people and determine why you admire them, and then reflect those qualities that you like.  He also noted that Munger often said the most important thing in finding a spouse is to “look for someone with low expectations!”

Post #300

This is my 300th blog post since I started it around six years ago.  As with post #200, let's take a look at some of what I wrote about over the past 100 posts spanning about two years:

I wrote with more practical, real life advice for high school and college graduates.

I wrote about a variety of investment issues, client-approved of course.

I wrote about how a political lackey masquerading as a university president ended VEISHEA.

I wrote more about the best songwriters and lyrics from yesteryear.

I wrote about how pop culture should start ignoring Lolo Jones, well before pop culture came to the same conclusion.

I wrote about major cities I visited.

I wrote more about taxpayers getting fleeced, and the primary non-profit fleecers.

I wrote about how medical doctors are self-centered, not patient-centered.

I wrote about what turning 50 years old meant to me, in a mostly non-philosophical way.

I wrote about a variety of ways that people / politicians / governments refuse to accept the evolution of social issues, such as how dumb it is to oppose both medical marijuana and decriminalization of marijuana, and how dumb it is to allow 2,000+ year-old religious doctrine control all of their secular decisions.

I wrote a little bit about a lot of other things, all in the name of getting things off my mind.

LieSpotting

I recently watched a most popular TED talk with the same title as this post.  Roughly the first half was about how often people lie, while the last half was about how to spot those lies.

I was more interested in the first half, because it verified my somewhat cynical belief that most people lie, and lie often, when they talk to you about something.  Many of these are of the 'little white lie' variety, the kind you tell to make someone else feel better, or to maintain a social grace.

However, a lot of these lies are exaggerations, to make the liar look better than he or she really is.  Some of these are couples/relationship type of lies, but the ones I'm referring to come from the stories that others tell about something they did.  You know the ones -- so-and-so did something crazy, or saw something crazy, and the story gets crazier (and a little bit different) every time you hear it.

Of course, this type of lying is common among pre-teens and teens, where it's almost a rite of passage.  In the past I've suggested you should only believe 75% of half of what they say!

But I feel like it happens more often these days with adults.  It's as if baby-boomers are in a contest among themselves to better whatever another person says.  Like the Dilbert character Topper, except not always in an office environment.

In this context, I suppose it's harmless.  It's isn't like I'm going going to make a bad decision based on this inaccurate information.  It just isn't good form.

Terrorists Still > VEISHEA

The past  week / weekend should have been a fun time on the campus of Iowa State University.  It should have been the 90-something-th edition of VEISHEA.  But that was postponed last year, indirectly due to a riot, but directly due to an out-of touch university president.

Last summer that president, Steven Leath, put a permanent end to VEISHEA   Of course, he did this after getting that recommendation from his hand-picked task force.  An absolute joke.

What was this task force going to do, make a recommendation contrary to what the president and his cronies wanted?  Leath had already played judge and jury to cancel last year's VEISHEA shortly after the riot, but well before enough time had passed to collect the facts about what happened.

He acted impulsively and dictatorially, claiming student safety was at risk, and ruining work and plans that were many months in the making.  He isn't going to admit now that he was wrong about his actions.

But in truth, those actions haven't made Iowa State students, or Ames, Iowa, a safer place.  Suppressing the organized fun and freedom of people doesn't engender trust and safety -- it makes those people bitter and angry, and makes them dislike you.  Worst case scenario, it manifests into something chaotic and violent.

Fortunately for ISU / Ames, that manifestation didn't happen this year, and maybe it won't ever.  Unfortunately for Leath, the same can't be said for how much he's disliked on campus.

It's Not A Choice

Last week, the latest social culture conflict hit the Catholic high school my kids attended.  Specifically, a gay teacher/coach was fired when the school poo-bahs suddenly(?) discovered that he lived an "openly" gay lifestyle.

This firing is legal for private institutions in Iowa.  Which is beside the point.  The point is, somehow our society still tolerates discrimination based on sexual orientation.

It took a very long time, but America finally figured out that it was wrong to discriminate based on gender and race.  Of course, it still occurs, but it isn't socially acceptable.  And as we go through future generations, that discrimination will occur less and less.

While great strides have been made to stop discrimination against gays, there is a very long way to go.  This is evidenced not only by this high school's action, but by some of the support they got for it.  I consider some of these supporters to be level-headed people.  What do I see that they don't?

Here it is:  They, like so many others, do not understand or accept that being gay is not a choice.  That's really all there is to it.  If you accept that people's sexual orientation is who they are, in the same way that gender or race are a given, then the discrimination becomes obvious -- and embarrassing, and infuriating, etc.

One day soon, society will not tolerate what went on at this high school and elsewhere.  We won't consider protections for sexual orientation to be 'special rights' or otherwise.  We'll look back and ask how any of this could have happened as late as 2015.

In the meantime, let's hope people figure out that it's wrong to be unfair to others who are born a certain way.

More April Fools

It's April Fools' Day again today, another chance to expand on last year's list of facts that should be followed by the phrase, "April Fools!" if only they weren't true:

* The state of Indiana thought it could allow businesses to discriminate against gays without anyone noticing.

* Stories about suffering pets commonly air before stories about suffering people on broadcast news.

* Ted Cruz thinks he is a viable presidential candidate.

* You can stockpile and use guns and alcohol, but will be thrown in jail for owning an ounce of cannabis.

* The NCAA makes billions of dollars annually on the backs of its institutions' revenue-producing athletes, but opposes sharing any of that revenue with those athletes.

* Farm Bureau believes farmers will sufficiently police themselves to keep ground water clean.

* Most people base their current moral beliefs on undocumented, male-only writings from thousands of years ago.