The Real Killers

The United States of America just suffered another mass shooting of elementary school children, this time in Texas.   I wrote about the last one(!) in 2012, and I basically predicted this one a week later.

If it isn’t already obvious, nothing has changed in the last 10 years.  I take that back, something has changed – it’s even easier now to buy guns, especially assault-style weapons. 

The gutless politicians governing our gun-crazy culture love their power too much to do anything about mass shootings.  These Republicans – and let's call a spade a spade, that’s who they are – accept millions of dollars from the gun lobby to retain their legislative ‘jobs’ in return for making it easy in this country to buy plentiful guns and ammunition.

These pathetic grifters love money and power more than the safety of the citizenry.  As cover, they try to blame mass shootings on everything else but guns.  Then after some time goes by, they try to water down our gun laws even more, as directed by their gun-lobby (Read: NRA) overlords.

It's hard to think how much less safer our gun laws can be when an 18 year-old in Texas can buy assault weapons without a comprehensive background check or waiting period.  How hard is it to correlate that with the fact the United States is the only nation in the world where mass shootings regularly happen?

In a way, the gun lobby has had it right all along.  Guns don't kill people, people kill people -- especially if they're a politician with an R behind their name.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2022

After a three-year, Covid-19-related hiatus from in-person shareholder meetings, we die-hard Berkshire Hathaway meeting attendees met in Omaha for Woodstock For Capitalists.

There were few changes from the last gathering in 2019.  Most importantly, the great Warren Buffett (age 91) and Charlie Munger (age 98) were again sitting on a stage answering questions for about five hours.  Vice-Chairs Greg Abel (future CEO) and Ajit Jain were also on stage to answer questions in the morning session.

Buffett seemed particularly in a mood to talk, as there were far fewer questions than in past years -- he even joked about it after the lunch break, noting they'd only answered seven questions in the morning session, apparently because someone (him) talked a lot.

My summary of the environment and some of what was said:

• A smaller crowd than in the past, probably due to the pandemic and people getting used to watching the live stream of the meeting.  Also, there was more room to roam in the convention area, things were more spread out.

• These guys hate the way so many approach stock market investing.  They treat it like a 'gambling parlor' now that securities prices frequently are unattached to fundamentals. Munger in particular brought up Robinhood (investment platform) and how people are now paying dearly for leveraging their money and on their misplaced faith in it.

• As much as these guys hate the stock market casino action, they REALLY hate cryptocurrency, which they believe is bad for stable currency economies and will be worthless one day.  Buffett made the same comment about it that he used for gold investors years ago, which is why invest in a non-producing asset that's only value is what another is willing to pay for it.

• On cryptocurrency, here's Munger's exact quote: "Well, in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else. And bitcoin does all three. In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s very likely to go to zero.  In the second place, it’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve system and the national currency system, which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and company on.  And third, it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China, and with all of our presumed advantages of civilization -- we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China."

• Upon answering a question about investing during inflation like we have now, Buffett said the best investment anyone can make is to invest in themselves.  Make yourself an expert at what you like to do -- if you're one of the best, people will pay you regardless, and you will do well.

• Also on inflation.....Buffett mentioned there was about $800 billion of Federal Reserve cash in circulation 10 or 15 years ago, and now there’s something like $2.2 trillion of currency in circulation.  That’s about $7,000 per person, every man, woman, and child in the U.S., a lot of which has come from the stimulus programs due to the pandemic.  He said it's no wonder we have inflation now -- but we probably had to do what we did.

Of  course, there was so much more.  Below is a link to this meeting and others.

https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/

Dear Lord Baby Jesus

 A new NASCAR (stock car racing) season began about a month ago.  This is something I generally don't care about, along with IndyCar or Formula 1 or any other auto racing.  Just not my thing.

However, it did remind me of one of my all-time favorite movies, Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby.  It includes one of my all-time favorite movie scenes, with Ricky Bobby's family and best friend Cal gathered around a table to eat.  It goes on for a long time, ranging from saying grace to children verbally ridiculing adults.

That doesn't sound funny, but it is. Here's just the script for the saying grace part.....

Carley: Supper's ready! Come on, y'all!  I've been slaving over this for hours!

Ricky Bobby (RB): Dear Lord baby Jesus...or as our brothers to the south call you, Jesus...we thank you so much for this bountiful harvest of Domino's, KFC...and the always delicious Taco Bell.  I just want to take time to say thank you for my family...my two beautiful, beautiful, handsome, striking sons...Walker and Texas Ranger...or T.R., as we call him...and of course, my red-hot smoking wife, Carley...who is a stone-cold fox.  Also wanna thank you for my best friend, Cal Naughton Jr...who's got my back no matter what.

RB and Cal: Shake and Bake.

RB: Dear Lord baby Jesus, we also thank you for my wife's father, Chip. We hope that you can use your baby Jesus powers...to heal him and his horrible leg. And it smells terrible and the dogs are always bothering with it. Dear tiny infant Jesus, we...

Carley: Hey, you know, sweetie...Jesus did grow up. You don't always have to call him "baby." It's odd and off-putting to pray to a baby.

RB: Well, I like the Christmas Jesus best and I'm saying grace. When you say grace, say it to grownup Jesus, teenage Jesus...bearded Jesus, whoever you want.

Carley: You know what I want? I want you to do this grace good, so that God will let us win tomorrow.

RB: Dear tiny Jesus...in your golden-fleece diapers, with your tiny, little, fat, balled-up fists...pawing at the air...

Chip: He was a man. He had a beard.

RB: Look, I like the baby version the best, do you hear me? I win the races and I get the money.

Carley: Ricky, finish the damn grace.

Cal: I like to picture Jesus in a tuxedo T-shirt...because it says, like, "I wanna be formal...but I'm here to party too." Because I like to party, so I like my Jesus to party. I like to picture Jesus as a ninja fighting off evil samurai. I like to think of Jesus, like, with giant eagle's wings. And singing lead vocals for Lynyrd Skynyrd...with, like, a angel band. And I'm in the front row, and I'm hammered drunk.

Carley: Hey, Cal? Why don't you just shut up?

Cal: Yes, ma'am.

RB: Dear 8-pound, 6-ounce, newborn infant Jesus...don't even know a word yet...just a little infant and so cuddly, but still omnipotent...we just thank you for all the races I've won and the 21.2 million dollars...

Carley: Love that money!

RB: …that I have accrued over this past season. Also, due to a binding endorsement contract...that stipulates I mention Powerade at each grace...I just wanna say that Powerade is delicious...and it cools you off on a hot summer day. And we look forward to Powerade's release of Mystic Mountain Blueberry.  Thank you for all your power and your grace, dear baby God. Amen.

All: Amen.

Cal: That was a hell of a grace, man.

Walker: You nailed that like a split hog!

RB: I'm not gonna lie to you, it felt good.

Texas Ranger: Dad, you made that grace your bitch.

Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.

You Make Me Sick

After two years of pandemic living, following generally accepted guidelines for social distancing, and getting vaccinated, COVID-19 finally broke through my defenses earlier this month.  I tested positive, my diagnostic confirmation arriving without fanfare via text from a lab.

I haven't had the flu for over 20 years (yes, I've been counting), and I'm vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19, so I expected mild symptoms, and a return to feeling normal within a few days.  Regrettably, it wasn't that simple.

While I did have mild symptoms, I had every single one of them, including congestion, cough, low-grade fever, and fatigue.  Let's just say the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

I'm left to wonder what it would have been like without being vaccinated.  No doubt worse, maybe not hospital-worthy, but who knows?  I'm in reasonably good shape for my age, not overweight, no hypertension or other comorbidities, and COVID-19 sucked.  More than a week later I still have a very minor cough with congestion, and my energy isn't entirely back.

Now, however, I mainly feel resentment, specifically towards the unvaccinated.

I realize everyone reacts differently to COVID-19.  I also realize that unvaccinated people over 50 with other health concerns have a much higher probability of being hospitalized with it and dying from it.  Yet most of them aren’t taking even the simplest precautions.

They are taking unnecessary and uncompensated risks.  Unfortunately, some of that risk is transferred to vaccinated folks like me.  Without them as science-denying hosts, COVID-19 would have nowhere to go, and there would be no variants to keep attacking everyone else.

If they’d get a couple of free shots and show some concern for others, I probably wouldn’t have gotten sick.  What’s not to resent about that?

My wish for them is that one day, COVID-19 holds them accountable in a way that doesn't affect those in the vaccinated world.

In Support Of The Half-Birthday

I'm writing this entry on my half-birthday.  It's six months from my last birthday, and six months to my next birthday.  The question is, do half-birthdays mean anything?

I never used to think so.  Growing up with an August birth month, I never had a school day where others might have recognized even my regular birthday.  It was kind of a bummer when you were youngster, watching everybody else get attention on their birthday that you never got.

Things are a bit different now.  Back then no one celebrated half-birthdays in schools like some elementary classes do now, which is a very nice thing for us summer birthday people.

Also, as I've aged I've paid more attention to half-birthdays, at least my own.  We only have a certain number of trips around the sun, and nowadays I kind of like to mark the halfway point for some perspective on how things are going.

Also, there's at least one half-birthday that's somewhat consequential in America.  That's when a person reach age 59.5, which makes them eligible for penalty-free withdrawals from most retirement accounts.  It's not much, but for people thinking about retiring, it's something.

So let's give it up for the half-birthday.  Why celebrate only once in 365 days when it can be done twice?

Key To The Keys

I recently returned from a trip to Key West, Florida.  It's long been a domestic 'final frontier' of mine, one of the few places I've always wanted to visit, but never have.

Here are my observations:

• While not that far in distance, the drive from Miami to Key West takes 3-4 hours since you're going through several other island keys and resort areas.  It was interesting to see everything, and even stop for food and beverages -- but I wouldn't care to do it again as opposed to flying.

• Viewing the sunset is a big deal at Key West, and hundreds gather each evening for just that activity.  At Mallory Square, the sunset is accompanied by several street performers to pass the time.  For those willing and able, there are lots of sunset cruises on the water available.

• The main tourist hub is Duval Street.  It's a two-mile long stretch of nothing but big bars (some famous, like Ernest Hemingway's old hangout, Sloppy Joes) and restaurants and touristy shops on both sides.  It's amenable to not only walkers but also those on bicycles and scooters.  It was a longer, slightly more family-friendly version of Bourbon Street in New Orleans.

• The Key West Historic Seaport is another tourist hotspot.  There were at least three large restaurants with outdoor seating from where you can watch fishing boats and yachts moving in and out (or cruise on one yourself).  Jimmy Buffett's Key West recording studio is there as well.

• I was expecting more of an island vibe to Key West, kind of laid back with Jimmy Buffett music emanating from every corner.  Turns out it had much more of a classic rock, crossover-county vibe, with a big blue-collar crowd to go along with the affluent tourists, at least after the sun went down.

• Speaking of music.....there was a lot of live music.  It started in the morning at the resorts and a few bars, and it was almost everywhere at night.  It was practically a necessity for a bar to have live music to draw patrons in from the street.

In summary, I'd say if New Orleans mated with Cape Cod, the offspring would end up to be something like Key West.