We're Not All Experts

I've been working in the retirement / investment planning world for a long time now.  I don't recall anyone I've ever talked to about retirement, meaning hundreds of people, expressing much confidence in their retirement planning.  There are just too many variables, and too many programs like social security and Medicare they don't understand.

However, when it comes to talking to many of those same people about investing, there is not only confidence, but more recently overconfidence about how to do things.  Why is that?  Consider a few macro-reasons:

1) Thanks to American innovation and capitalism, the stock market goes up over long periods of time.  It also goes down, sometimes sharply, for short periods of time, but people eventually forget about that short-term pain.  So, over long periods of time, they see their money grow, and they assume this means they're great investors.  In fact, all they've really done is to stumble into one of the greatest passive investment strategies there is -- put money in stocks, and do nothing.  This works fine, until retirement, when you no longer want too much invested in stocks.

2) The proliferation of financial media outlets in the past two decades has given people many opportunities to be 'enlightened' by so-called investing experts.  Watch enough TV or read enough on the internet, and soon people are convinced that they too, are experts by simply following the unsolicited advice of these other so-called experts.  If anyone actually tracked their results, they'd be disappointed, but rarely does anyone track the performance of a media-expert.  Also, no one wants to be inconvenienced by the truth.

3) A perfect pandemic storm that includes the introduction of no-fee securities trading, a massive surge in technology stocks, and social media platforms and influencers.  Many in the new 'work-from anywhere'  crowd have only been able to do this investing thing for a short time, during a prolonged market upswing.  At this point, they think the stock market and their investments only go up.  Their confirmation bias will ultimately lead them into one of the inevitable sharp short-term market corrections.  Unlike others, this millennial-heavy group isn't likely to have the patience or discipline to keep from exiting their positions.

Investing doesn't have to be complicated, but it decidedly isn't a simple thing.  The only sure thing is, being overconfident in one's ability to do it will lead to a bad outcome.

Apple Watch Watch

I bought myself an Apple Watch for Christmas.  At least that's what I told myself and others, I really didn't need a reason other than I've wanted one for a while.

When wear-able technology first became available to consumers, I wasn't a fan.  I couldn't get past what people were doing with their Fitbits, something I thought was a fad (mostly correctly) and an intrusion on others' lives, namely mine.

Over the past couple of years, I've noticed how my kids have used their Apple Watches.  There did seem to be a definite convenience to getting a digital notification by a simple vibration on the arm, and being able to disseminate its importance with a quick turn of the wrist.  Plus, it was so much more than a Fitbit, since it integrates with Apple Store apps.

Of course, for those who feel they must use it for health reasons, it includes a fitness monitor that lets the wearer know if they're being active enough.  While I don't use that feature, it's fine for others who need the motivation.  More importantly, it lets the the owner share that information with other Apple Watch users upon request and acceptance, which lessens the chance anyone will share that unneeded info with me!

One of the more recent concerns I had about the Apple Watch was the unusual feeling of having something on my wrist.  I hadn't worn a watch regularly for a couple of years, and saw little future reason to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Turns out that wearing a watch is like riding a bike, and I picked it up again without even thinking about it.

So thumbs up for the Apple Watch.....another technology product I didn't know I needed until Apple invented it and told me I needed it.

No More F**** To Give About T****

Over the years, I've made fun of people who consistently make, and make public, their New Year's resolutions.  I've probably even made fun of them in some previous blog post.  I'm all for improvement via positive self-talk, but the vast majority of these resolutions are forgotten within a couple of months, even though the initial self-affirmations remain on social media accounts forever.

That said, this year I'm going to join the crowd, and publicize my own resolution.  It's very simple: I'm not going to remain silent or try to change / avoid the subject the next time I hear anyone, speaking to me in person or in a group, tries to defend the worst, narcissistic, racist, xenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic, grifting, criminal, fascist president in U.S. history, Donald T****.

In retrospect, it's a shame I put so much effort into not confronting people on that topic before now.  It seemed like such a waste of time and energy, trying to use truth and facts to explain something to the unwilling and unknowing.  Changing the subject was a more rational approach than trying to change a mind warped by far right-wing media platforms, which supported / support  T**** and the republican party (small caps on purpose) at all costs.

It was also a function of my professional life, to try to maintain neutrality.  I have clients from all walks of life, although they are overwhelmingly white Iowans.  It sort of reminds me of the famous Michael Jordan quote from a simpler time, when he was asked why he didn't use his platform for social change.  "Republicans buy shoes, too," was his reply.

During the Black Lives Matter protests of last summer, it started to dawn on me that silence wasn't the correct option.  That's the 'white privilege' way of doing things.  Silence can be taken as complicity.

So coming into this year, I decided I wasn't going down that path anymore.  After last week's crazed insurrection movement that killed people at the U.S. Capitol on 1/6/2021, I have extra motivation to not be silent when others are saying and doing ignorant, deranged things.  Put less politely, I don't have anymore fucks to give about those people.

I'm not going out on a limb by putting this in writing on my little unknown blog.  But if anyone reads it and disagrees, or anyone is offended by my verbal pushback someday, I'm ready to move on without them as clients or friends.

I decided long ago I'd reached the point where I really only want to be around people who improve me personally and professionally.  T****-lickers don't do that, and after last week, it's embarrassing to even be around them.

2021

The worst year of virtually everyone's lifetime is just ending.  This should make it very easy to complete my annual list of things I'd like to see happen next year.  It will also make it very difficult to review what I wanted to have happen in 2020, and see a near total failure due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Let's start with that review, with comments in ALL CAPS:

Me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I've never set foot.
HAHA -- I RARELY TRAVELED OUTSIDE OF IOWA, OR EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DES MOINES METRO AREA, THE ENTIRE YEAR

A new president-elect and a corresponding surviving, independent, democratic republic.
ONE WINNER AND ONE PROBABLY WINNER -- IT WILL STILL BE A FEW WEEKS TO PRESIDENT-ELECT BIDEN'S INAUGUARTION DAY TO SEE IF THE REPUBLIC ACTUALLY SURVIVES.

More chances to make a hole-in-one (which means more time to play golf).
GOLF WAS ONE THING THE PANDEMIC DID NOT ALTER MUCH, BUT I DIDN'T PLAY OFTEN UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

Widespread acceptance of plant-based meats on restaurant menus.
PLANT-BASED PROTEINS DEFINITELY EXPANDED THEIR FOOTPRINT, BUT NOT IN RESTAURANTS WITH LIMITED-TO-NO CUSTOMERS.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 16 consecutive playoff game losses.
ACTUALLY WENT BACKWARDS ON THIS.  THEY MADE THE PANDEMIC-SHORTENED SEASON PLAYOFFS AND THEN PROCEDED TO LOSE ANOTHER TWO GAMES TO BRING THE STREAK TO 18!

Consolidation in the video streaming service industry.
THIS ALSO WENT BACKWARDS, THERE ARE MORE STREAMING INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS THAN EVER, AND MORE TO COME THANKS TO THE PANDEMIC.

A Summer Olympics without scandal.
I GUESS YOU CAN SAY THIS HAPPENED, SINCE THE OLYMICS WERE CANCELED.

Greater federal regulation of Facebook, and less people using it to show me pictures of their food.
THERE WAS MORE EMPHSIS ON REGULATION, BUT FACEBOOK IS BASICALLY SELF-REGULATING, WHICH IS TO SAY THEY AREN'T DOING MUCH.

A new artist who brings back the sound of classic rock.
THIS WAS ALWAYS A PIPE DREAM.

That I never order from a bar that tells me it has no Crown Royal Apple.

I WAS NEVER AT A BAR TO ORDER ALL YEAR, SO AGAIN, TECHNICALLY THIS WISH CAME TRUE.

Now for 2021, let's see these things happen:

A non-pandemic world where people live without fear of contracting COVID-19.

A less-friendly social and legal environment for those who help spread malicious propaganda and conspiracy theories.

A Summer Olympics that actually happens.

Revelations and prosecutions of Trump administration / organization officials who broke laws.

More time to read, more time to listen to podcasts.

An easy integration of administration and technology between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.  (A rare professional ask in this annual list.)

A full return of college and professional sports.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 18 consecutive playoff game losses.

Less interaction with people who make every conversation about them.

An awesome vacation.

The Sound Of Silence

Last week I mentioned 'curated fan noise for televised sports' was something for which I'm not thankful.  It's really more than that.  I hate it.

This curated fan noise has been around for a long time.  Fox Sports is the biggest purveyor of it, and they have the volume turned way up.  For years, if you watch their NFL broadcasts, you can barely hear the announcers over the fake fan noise.  And if you listen closely, you can make out the same noises in sort of a rotation.  It's embarrassing, and just another reason to hit the mute button.

This Fall, because there are few if any fans allowed at football games, TV networks decided to add this fake fan noise to a new level, adding it to (almost) all broadcasts.  The NFL went so far as to say the fan noise was recorded from actual fans of the teams playing.

For me, this is insulting to watch / listen to.  I don't need fake fan noise to help me watch a game.  Who does?  I'd rather watch the game with the actual noise, even it there isn't any.  Actually, I'd rather watch a bunch of games at once with no audio at all, like it is at gambling sports books.

I get the idea of trying to give the at-home viewer the experience of being at the game.  But if the games are silent during the COVID-19 pandemic, then give me the real deal quiet.  

The Most Thankless Year Ever

In the year of a once-in-a-century pandemic, it's never been easier to come up with my annual list of things for which I am not thankful.  The only reason this list isn't longer than usual is my own editing, not because I ran out of items.  In random order:

COVID-19.

Chinese wet markets and bat-eaters.

Candidates who lose elections and refuse to concede.

Large wedding parties and receptions.

Adhering to 'no shirt, no shoes, no service' as a health issue, but then refusing to wear a mask.

Tik-Tok

The Tiger King documentary.

Conspiracy movements.

Cults.

People who don't accept nor understand math and science.

Spectator-less sporting events.

Curated fan noise for televised sports.

Having more than one state named Dakota.

Social distancing.

Best Song Lyrics (Part XXII)

A few years ago, I saw the touring production of the Broadway show Beautiful: The Carole King Musical.  Until then, I had no idea how many great songs Carole King had written for herself and for others.

I probably should have known better.  I was a pre-teen in the 1960s and 1970s, so it wasn't as if I cared that much about music during the peak Carole King years.  But I had older brothers and sisters who were listening to her music on the radio.  I just didn't make the connection back then.

Along with her writing partner and future spouse (and later ex-spouse), Gerry Goffin, King turned out several hits that others recorded, like Up On The Roof, The Loco-Motion, and Will You Love Me Tomorrow.  The list of songs credited to King the solo artist is equally impressive, including I Feel The Earth Move, and You've Got A Friend.  (The latter was recorded first by James Taylor, but yes, written by King.)

King's famous album Tapestry alone has several hits on it, but to illustrate her songwriting skills I'll single out her pre-1980s technology break-up song So Far Away:

So far away
Doesn't anybody stay in one place anymore?
It would be so fine to see your face at my door
And it doesn't help to know that you're just time away

Long ago, I reached for you and there you stood
Holding you again could only do me good
Oh, how I wish I could
But you're so far away, yeah

One more song about movin' along the highway
I can't say much of anything that's new
But if I could only work this life out my way
I'd rather spend it bein' close to you

But you're so far away
Doesn't anybody stay in one place anymore?
It would be so fine to see your face at my door
And it doesn't help to know, you're so far away