Apple Watch Watch

I bought myself an Apple Watch for Christmas.  At least that's what I told myself and others, I really didn't need a reason other than I've wanted one for a while.

When wear-able technology first became available to consumers, I wasn't a fan.  I couldn't get past what people were doing with their Fitbits, something I thought was a fad (mostly correctly) and an intrusion on others' lives, namely mine.

Over the past couple of years, I've noticed how my kids have used their Apple Watches.  There did seem to be a definite convenience to getting a digital notification by a simple vibration on the arm, and being able to disseminate its importance with a quick turn of the wrist.  Plus, it was so much more than a Fitbit, since it integrates with Apple Store apps.

Of course, for those who feel they must use it for health reasons, it includes a fitness monitor that lets the wearer know if they're being active enough.  While I don't use that feature, it's fine for others who need the motivation.  More importantly, it lets the the owner share that information with other Apple Watch users upon request and acceptance, which lessens the chance anyone will share that unneeded info with me!

One of the more recent concerns I had about the Apple Watch was the unusual feeling of having something on my wrist.  I hadn't worn a watch regularly for a couple of years, and saw little future reason to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Turns out that wearing a watch is like riding a bike, and I picked it up again without even thinking about it.

So thumbs up for the Apple Watch.....another technology product I didn't know I needed until Apple invented it and told me I needed it.

Correlation Is Not Causation

A few years have passed since I’ve blogged about investing.  I used to post more about it when I worked at a firm where I put myself in charge of writing a quarterly investment newsletter of sorts; then I’d basically copy and paste what I’d already written.

One of the themes of that prior investment writing I did was how there was little, if any, correlation between how the markets perform over long periods and virtually any other specific individual thing.  Investing history and statistics prove that if X happens, it does not impact the future of Y.

The best current example of this investing correlation mistake is people who want to correlate the political parties with stock market performance.  The fact is, there has never been a correlation between those two things.  [Note to those Republicans who still believe those things are related, you actually want a Democrat in office, because the stock market went up more during three democratic presidential terms than for any republican presidency.]

Another very broad example of this investing correlation fallacy involves technical trading, which is buying or selling based on nothing more than the grid lines on a chart. For some, these simple securities price charts signal a breakout up or down, ergo an investing opportunity.  It's amazing how many otherwise smart people believe in this type of technical 'strategy' when it has nothing to do with the underlying company.  It's stupid.

This all makes me think, what other things do people want to positively or negatively correlate that have no real correlation?  There are so many, but here are a few that annoy me:

* Scholastic grades and intelligence.

* Hours spent at the office and work.

* Owning a Fitbit (or other electronic health tracking device) and weight loss.

Fitbit(e) Me Again

The warm weather and longer daylight of summertime encourages people to increase their level of physical activity.  It might be something big, like long range running / cycling / swimming, or something simple like gardening, or walking the dog.  (Alas, many people don't walk their dogs much in colder weather, and yes, that makes them terrible pet owners.)

Regardless, this is a net good thing for those people's health, and to a lesser extent, a society that may not have to bear a cost to care for more unhealthy people.  Unfortunately, some of those who fall into the 'simple' category also fall into a net bad category.  Specifically, the category of people who feel it's necessary to brag to others about their new, extraordinarily minor activity.

This is the scourge of the Fitbit, a fitness tracking device introduced several years ago.  I blogged about it in 2015, and it's only been made worse (meaning even more ubiquitous) by the very popular Apple Watch.  Here is the key paragraph:

Hey Fitbit users:  The rest of us are happy that a consumer product has made you more fitness-aware.  We just don’t want to hear about it every damn time you’re around us.  You might want to assume that some of us are doing a lot more than you are to stay fit, we simply aren’t publicizing it.  Also, I would caution Fitbit users to remember the importance of diet in overall health – but please, you don’t have to tell the rest of us your daily fresh vegetable or yogurt intake, either.

Bragging about a slow walk or slow bike ride only incriminates the bragger.  Those who wear fitness tracking devices should not confuse activity with cardiovascular-improving, weight-loss inducing exercise.  Movement is good, but movement without elevating your heart rate, or burning substantial calories, is a big health nothing-burger.

I suggest that before these folks brag about their activity, they think about whether their audience cares, or whether anyone is seeing any actual results.  If the answer is no, don't brag about it.

Fitbit(e) Me

Some consumer product fads are harmless.  Pet rocks.  Rubik’s cubes.  Bottled water.  Wait, check that, I’m being told that bottled water is still a multi-billion dollar industry…..go figure.

Regardless, I’ve been waiting in the weeds to complain about a new product fad that began as harmless, but has morphed into an annoying pastime for some.  It involves the Fitbit.

For the un-indoctrinated, a Fitbit is a wearable product (basically like a wristwatch) that uses sensors and wireless technology to calculate how much a person moves in a prescribed time.  While there are plenty of competitors (such as the Apple Watch), Fitbit has developed tremendous brand-awareness and loyalty, and has a big lead in this space.

There’s nothing wrong with the Fitbit, nor with the consumer ‘need’ that the Fitbit tries to address for people.  That is, give them motivation to live a more active lifestyle.  If monitoring the number of steps taken daily, along with distance and time does that for people, that’s great.  Fitter human beings benefit not only that person, but society in general.

The problem is not the Fitbit.  The problem is Fitbit users who consistently believe they must tell everyone else how much they’ve moved.  I’m beginning to think the Fitbit user manual carries a warning message claiming the Fitbit will self-destruct if the wearer doesn’t immediately announce their daily (or more frequent) fitness results to those within shouting distance.

Hey Fitbit users:  The rest of us are happy that a consumer product has made you more fitness-aware.  We just don’t want to hear about it every damn time you’re around us.  You might want to assume that some of us are doing a lot more than you are to stay fit, we simply aren’t publicizing it.  Also, I would caution Fitbit users to remember the importance of diet in overall health – but please, you don’t have to tell the rest of us your daily fresh vegetable or yogurt intake, either.

By definition, fads come and go, and that’s especially true with fitness and diet crazes.  Only time will tell whether the Fitbit is a fad.  In the meantime, let’s at least agree not to talk about it.