2017

It's time for my annual review of the list of things I wanted to happen the prior 12 months, and give my list of things I want to occur in the next 12 months.  Here's the 2016 list, with comments in ALL CAPS:

-At least some progress, not regress, on medicinal marijuana legalization in Iowa.
NOPE TO DOPE AGAIN, BUT AT LEAST THERE WAS A BILL ON WHICH TO VOTE.

-Chris Christie versus Hillary Clinton for president, with ? winning.
HILLARY LOST THE PRESIDENCY, WHILE CHRISTIE LOST HIS POLITICAL CAREER.

-A higher stock market.
AFFIRMATIVE, BUT IT DIDN'T LOOK GOOD ON FEBRUARY 1ST.

-Just one actual, even very minor piece of legislation to make it slightly more difficult to buy a gun.
DESPITE MORE VIOLENCE, WE'VE NEVER BEEN FARTHER FROM THIS HAPPENING.

-The personal, financial, and political implosion of Donald Trump.
THE OPPOSITE HAPPENED THIS YEAR, BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY HAPPEN.

-A way to charge devices without a wire.
NO, BUT WIRELESS HEADPHONE HAVE GONE MAINSTREAM.

-An à la carte option for cable and satellite TV channels.
THANKS TO PRESSURE FROM STREAMING SERVICES, SEEING SMALL PROGRESS.

-More time for eating right, less time for exercise.
ENDED UP DOING MORE OF BOTH, WHICH WAS A GOOD THING.

For 2017 I'd like to see:

Again:  At least some progress on medical marijuana in Iowa,

Some type of institutional or legal control over fake news / social media.

Related to the above, more critical thinkers, fewer idiots who believe everything they hear.

GPS technology used in major sporting events, e.g. to mark the ball in football games, and for the strike zone in baseball games.

More working from home by me.

The return of popular mainstream rock bands and rock music.

Implementation of the fiduciary rule, and the demise of commission-based financial advice.

The resignation or impeachment of an unqualified president -- no names, any one will do.

Cave-Dwelling Millennials

Five years ago, I posted a blog entry about how the main problem with kids, is parents.  My point was that there could be no bad kids unless they'd been exposed to bad parenting.  That came to mind again this week, but in a much, much different way.

This week the Wall Street Journal reported that almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015.  This is the largest percentage since 1940, and happened despite good job growth since the Great Recession of 2008.  The share of those ages 18-34 living with parents or other family members has actually been rising since 2005, when roughly 33% were living with family.

It should be noted that this is all according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia, which did it to determine why there is less demand for housing than would be expected for the millennial generation.  They decided that rising rents in many cities and tough mortgage-lending standards were the culprit, making it difficult for those 'young Americans' to strike out on their own.

Pardon my French, but that reasoning in bullshit.  It makes no sense on its face, since the percentage should decline as the economy has so improved over the past five years.  Also, there's plenty of multi-generational family living even in lower cost-of-living areas.  And for the past few years, mortgage rates have never been lower, making it easier than ever to buy a house.

Want to know why so many millennials are living in their parents' basements?  Because they can.  Because parents have allowed it -- not just by unconditionally opening their doors to their underachieving kids for undetermined periods of time, but by not holding their children accountable for making better decisions when it mattered, during and after high school and college.

That's simply another form of bad parenting, in a much different context than what I wrote five years ago.  It's also a sign of how some millennials are lazy, er, I mean lack motivation, to the extent they'd rather give up independent living than have to be fully employed.

Parents should be more motivated about this, too.  As a financial planner, I can also tell you the parents pay a terrible cost in the form of not being able to retire.  Thousands of dollars are being spent on children for whom there should no longer be a cost.  I've seen some situations where parents are paying more now for their adult children than they were when those kids were under 18.  Ugh.

Calling Mr. Murrow

Edward R. Murrow was a broadcaster for CBS radio and (later) television.  He first gained fame for his radio broadcasts during World War II, which were followed by millions of listeners in the United States.   However, Murrow is perhaps more well-known for later producing a series of TV reports that helped expose and discredit then-Senator Joseph McCarthy for his reckless, anti-communist rhetoric.

Murrow is still considered one of the greatest journalists ever, noted for his honesty and integrity in delivering the news.  Although he died in 1965 at age 57, he left us a lot of great phrases from which to quote.

One of Murrow's most famous quotes is, "A nation of sheep will beget a government of wolves."  This takes on new meaning with the current 'fake news' epidemic on the internet -- but more on that another time.

Now take a look at the following quotes, all attributable to him, and ask yourself how much they fit now -- over 50 years later -- with our country's current state of affairs:

No one man can terrorize a whole nation unless we are all his accomplices.

Our major obligation is not to mistake slogans for solutions.

The obscure we see eventually. The completely obvious, it seems, takes longer.

We cannot defend freedom abroad by deserting it at home.

We must not confuse dissent with disloyalty. When the loyal opposition dies, I think the soul of America dies with it.

We will not walk in fear, one of another.

Good night, and good luck.

No Thanks Again

Here's my 8th annual Thanksgiving list of things for which I am not thankful.  You can get to the trail of prior lists here or by using the label 'Thanksgiving' on the blog.

As always, this list is in no particular order:

Donald Trump.

People with low IQs.

Fake news, and those on social media who swallow it.

Electronic dance music, and the mostly no-talent celebrity DJs who play it.

Injuries to star players on your team.

The Zika virus.

Christmas lights that are illuminated before Thanksgiving.

Christmas lights that aren't taken down until the Spring, or never.

Kanye West

Fuel pumps that ask multiple questions before allowing you to pump fuel.

'Interviews' on the Tonight Show starring Jimmy Fallon.

People with the overwhelming urge to discuss their personal life without prompting.

The Bandwagon Is Full

As I write this, it’s presidential Election Day in America.  And to help me get celebrate the end of the seemingly never-ending campaigns, I’m going to write about how it’s like…..bandwagon fans.

Last week, the Chicago Cubs won the World Series for the first time since 1908.  I’m not a Cubs fan, and frankly baseball is at best my 4th favorite team sport behind football, basketball, and even hockey.  (I’ve made blog entries in the past about how the baseball establishment has ruined baseball.)  But the Cubs’ triple-A team, the Iowa Cubs, play in Des Moines, and I’ve seen many of the players in past trips to those games, so even I was sort of rooting for those lovable losers.  (Also, it makes me feel better because I’d like to think that once in my lifetime, another perennial losing team called the Minnesota Vikings will win the Super Bowl.)

During and after the Series, there were somewhere between thousands and millions of people claiming to be long-suffering Cubs fans.  And while many of them were, some of them were not.  A lot of those so-called long-time fans couldn’t name even a couple of the players, nor had any clue as to how well the Cubs did in the regular season.  They were bandwagon fans, trying to attach their sorry souls to a contender they really don’t care about, giving them an excuse act silly and feel good about themselves.

Those fans drive me nuts.  They act like they care, but they don’t actually know enough to care.

In a way, it’s a metaphor for this year’s presidential election.  Millions of people are going to vote today, and lots of them know virtually nothing about the candidates, nor the issues they’ve been campaigning about for the past year.  They just know that a big contest is afoot, and they’re going to attach their sorry souls to a contender they really don’t care about, giving them an excuse to act silly and feel good about themselves.

Those voters drive me nuts, too.

Too Old To Party

How old is too old to brag about how hard you partied?

Over the course of the year, I've been to a number of gatherings that included adults in their 50s or 60s.  These include things like game tailgates, wedding receptions, recreational outings, and your run-of-the-mill gatherings at a bar or house party.

It occurred to me recently that when reminiscing with others about these events, someone invariably talks about how they or someone else had too much alcohol to drink, and maybe did something silly or embarrassing.  While there's nothing wrong with that (as long as no one did anything illegal), this seems like a conversation that shouldn't happen that often for people over age 50.

Sure, in your 20s or 30s or even 40s, it's practically a right of youth to celebrate life to -- or even a bit beyond -- the edge.  But c'mon, bragging about partying when you're nearing retirement is something your kids should be doing, not you.  It makes the bragger seem like they've been stuck in a rut their whole life, still trying to relive the good old days when their crazy behavior was celebrated.

If a person has so little in life to be happy about they still need to try to prove their ability to drink and party too hard in their AARP years, it's time for them to let it go.  No one else really cares, and it isn't good optics those around them, both during and well after the occurrence.

The Pacific Northwest

I recently returned from a week-long trip by car from Napa Valley, California to Seattle, Washington.  So many observations:

* There are A LOT of wineries in the Napa / Sonoma, California area.  I assumed they numbered in the dozens, but it's actually in the hundreds.  You can't tour / taste at all of them, but you can at most.  There's a stretch on the main road through Napa where they're lined up like suburban strip malls, one after another.  Also, did you know you can make white wine from pinot grapes?  Me neither.

* As expected, there are incredible, cliff-by-the-ocean vistas along the Pacific Coast Highway in northern California.  There are also some crazy, hilly, twisting routes that can get annoying after a while.

* Apparently it's a thing for cyclists to make epic, multi-day trips from north-to-south along that highway.  I saw dozens of riders hauling heavy gear who were navigating those crazy roads,  There were also plenty of signs to make drivers aware of them.

* It's also apparently a thing for campers and RVs to make the same north-to-south camping trek, and there were many camping and RV parks along the road for them to stay at overnight, or longer

* Farther north in California, especially just south of the Eureka area, the road becomes a long, winding stretch over and through small mountains, thick with tall trees.  There isn't much civilization along this stretch, and what small 'towns' you see aren't ones you're likely to spend a lot of time in.  Let's just say if I had to summarize the area in a word, it would be "Uni-bomber-like."

* Once the highway crosses into Oregon, the cliffs along the ocean turn into sand dunes, and beaches become more accessible.  (For golfers like me, don't forget to stop at the famous Bandon Dunes Golf Resort, the most Scottish looking course in America.)  Again, lots of campers and RV parks, but now you start to see some boats and marinas   When you can't see the ocean, all you see is trees.  Tall trees.  Everywhere.

* It was this area that I finally realized something about all of the towns in northern California and southern Oregon, at least the towns large enough to have schools.  The school buildings were sad.  Never saw a single one that looked newer, and most of them looked like re-purposed buildings that were decades old.  It's basically the opposite of the big new schools you see in Iowa, ever since we passed what became a statewide sales tax levy for school infrastructure.

* Oregon definitely rivals Colorado as the most cycling-friendly state.  There were bike lanes everywhere, not only in big cities like Eugene and Portland.  Many signs warned about cyclists being present.  There was even a bridge where a cyclist could push a button, setting off a warning light to let vehicles know there was a cyclist on the bridge.

* The entire state had a laid-back feel, but somewhere between the rural Oregon coast roads and the interstate-connected cities of Eugene and Portland, the culture changes from laid-back country to laid-back hippie.  Both seem slow-paced, but I preferred the relaxed, knit-stocking-cap wearing hippie vibe.

* The drive from Portland to Seattle would be unspectacular, if it weren't for seeing Mt. St. Helen's and then Mt. Rainier towering to the east.  The weather was so good, it was no problem seeing Mt. Rainier the last few days of the trip.

* At the famous Pike's Place Market in downtown Seattle, there is more fresh fruit, seafood, and flowers than some people might see in their entire lives, all reasonably priced.  And yes, I saw them throwing fish.

* Seattle isn't technically on the Pacific Ocean, but the Puget Sound makes for lots of shoreline, with beachfront real estate and great views.  Like Portland, I found it to have friendly people, and it seemed easy to get around.  Also:  lots of coffee shops with people wearing layers of dark clothes.

Saying No To The Book

I'm a financial planner.  I've been doing this for going on 10 years now, after more than 20 years of working for financial organizations.  I have great clients and my practice has had great growth, at least by my standards.  I'm content.

But based on the writings of many successful financial planners ('the book' as I call it), I should be trying to ramp up by adding staff and other advisors, and marketing more heavily.  I need to turn my financial planning 'practice' into a 'firm' and if I don't, I'll be ruined.  I'm supposedly not doing it right.

The thing is, based on 'the book' I shouldn't have been able to build a fairly successful practice.  If fact, if I hadn't followed 'the book' when I first became a financial planner, I'd believe I'd be much better off now than I am.  (It's occurred to me more than once that perhaps one of the reasons 'the book' says to add staff is, the so-called successful advisors who wrote it weren't smart enough to know how to do their own paperwork, or make their own decisions.)

So I have two possible paths now.  One, to slow down growth, and enjoy the practice and the balance it provides to my life.  Or two, pursue more growth, probably make more money, work longer hours, and end up managing other support staff, advisors, and the headaches that go with a large firm.

Choosing option #1 is easy for me.  My kids are grown and independent, and I live a comfortable if not affluent life. My focus is much more on health and having time to enjoy life more.  I want my practice to be something I can and want to manage.

It's easy for me to ignore 'the book' now, to say yes to life, and no to more money and more work.  The hard part was knowing when not to listen to what people / 'the book' tell you to do.

RAGBRAI - 2016 Edition (Belated, With Complaint)

I wasn't going to write about the Register's Annual Great Bike Ride Across Iowa (RAGBRAI) this year.  I did come out of my self-imposed RAGBRAI retirement to ride one 50+ mile day with my daughter and her friend, but it was a relatively uneventful day, and I didn't think there was enough new things to add to my prior years' summaries.

Since then, I've had a another cycling-related issue come up to complain about, so I figured I'd include everything in one blog post.  Turns out this week was also the second anniversary of my last (and hopefully only) biking crash, so cycling is on my mind.

First, the 2016 RAGBRAI observations:

* I rode on Thursday this year, later than any day in the week I ever had as an adult.  I get the feeling that fewer people actually ride later in the week.  The weather was great, and the day was short, so I think this is a rational explanation for what, from my perspective, was fewer riders.

* Here may be another reason for fewer people:  Proximity of the ride.  The far southern Iowa route doesn't lend itself well to a daily ride of 10,000+ cyclists.  There are fewer towns, ergo fewer people to join the ride for a day, and even fewer roads for the route and its many support vehicles.  Frankly, RAGBRAI should permanently keep the ride north of Interstate 80, and then from time-to-time just send some of the ride proceeds to southern Iowa towns.  Win/win.

* Best sign this year was next to a cornfield late in the day's route, which declared it was the last chance to use the "World's Largest Transgender Bathroom."  (By the way, this is another negative about going through southern Iowa, where it's about 85% pastureland and only 15% cornfields.)

* Worst thing I saw this year was a roadside, trashy-looking acreage with a double-wide trailer and, ugh, a large confederate flag.  Really?!  That was not good optics for RAGBRAI or for Iowa.  It screamed ignorance.  I'd have given almost anything to see a team of riders raid that yard and destroy that flag.

* Still no pineapple pie anywhere.

Now for my complaint.  A lot of effort goes into the 'Ride Right' theme of RAGBRAI and large group cycling, where riders are encouraged to use proper hand signals and call out bike movements and stoppages.  That's great, but some cyclists are taking it too far.  I saw some getting upset at other riders who didn't live up to their "Ride Right' expectations, without factoring in that there are hundreds, maybe thousands of others on RAGBRAI who simply don't ride enough to know the rules.

Worse yet, some cyclists were yelling at drivers of vehicles who they deemed to not be properly sharing the road.  I saw it again this week when I was on a ride, where another cyclist got angry that a car didn't stop for him at an unmarked crosswalk.

C'mon now, you cyclist-douche bags.  I get that too many cyclists are being injured or even killed by careless drivers -- I have to make minor defensive maneuvers virtually every time I go for a ride.  But instead of cursing at the darkness, maybe just worry about continuing to make yourself a great example.  Be an ambassador of good, not evil, and always remember that in a  battle between the vehicle and the bicycle, the vehicle will win 100% of the time.

It's Like I Always Say

Over the years, I've had quite a few sayings that I've become fond of repeating.  For the most part, outside of my spouse and children, no one would know these quotes.

Now that I've just had another birthday, I'm getting old enough that I want to put these in writing.  I do this below knowing it will be a working list, I expect to add to it:

* There’s nothing wrong in living your life with a quiet confidence in what you’re doing.  [Social media and reality TV have ruined this concept.]

* There are no bad kids, there are only bad parents.

* No one is completely useless, because even useless people can be used as a bad example.

* He who lives with the afflicted, also suffers.

* Sometimes the reason a person does things is the same reason a dog licks his balls -- because he can.

* When you blame yourself, you feel like no one else has the right to blame you.

* If you aren't going to have an opinion about things, why bother waking up in the morning?

* People who don't support medical marijuana don't believe in evolution.

Modern Convention

I’ve been trying to avoid writing about the current state of America's national political affairs.  I feel like I’ve done that; even though this is a general election year and there’s a lot of crazy going on, particularly in the Republican Party, I only made one entry six months ago, around Iowa caucus time.

However, now that both national party conventions just ended, I have to at least write something about them.

So much of what you see and hear in the primary and convention season is coming from the party goofballs.  By that I mean, local political activists on the fringes who attend obscure rallies, and who will always follow the party line, no matter how extreme it is.

While these particular Democrats and Republicans usually have opinions that are very black-and-white (along with skin color), electing a president isn't a strict matter of pro-gun versus pro-gun control, or pro-business versus pro-middle class, or pro-religion versus pro-scientific fact-secular.  It's important to keep that in perspective.

It's been a fact for a long time that to win a general election, a candidate must appeal to the more centrist general electorate.  This is where the more centrist party figures are, and they don't attend the national conventions.

The centrist electorate is also where the political independents have the power.  That's folks like me.  But independents aren't invited on the crazy-town major party national convention train, either.

And so, the conventions come and go with no one really caring about those who don't think as they do, and no one asking for the help they ultimately need.  It's an unfortunate and frankly dumb way to go about nominating a person for president.

It's too bad there isn't a bona fide independent party.  And no, Libertarian Party, you're still too 'out-there' to qualify as a party of independents, although by being fiscally conservative and socially liberal, you're closer than the others.

Letter To My Younger Self

Earlier this week, recently retired basketball star Kobe Bryant made a minor news ripple by posting a letter to his younger self.  He wrote about investing in other people, rather than just giving them things to make them feel good.

I didn't care so much for the letter as I did for the idea.  In his case, he was writing to his 17-year-old self, the point at which went from high school straight to his professional basketball career.  So here's a letter to my 22-year-old self, when I went from high school to the working world:

Dear Younger Me,

Now that you’ve got the new degree, new job, new apartment, and new wife, you probably think you’ve got the world by the tail.  I’m happy to tell you that for the most part, you do, relative to most people your age.  That’s also true relative to the rest of the world – and that’s what I want to write you about.

Things have been teed up for you pretty well your whole life.  For sure, it wasn’t exactly given to you; you had to work a lot on the farm as a teenager (at a time when most kids your age were doing next to nothing), and you had to spend almost everything you earned by paying for college (although that no-interest loan from your parents made a big difference).   But you did not want for much.

It turns out that there are millions of people in America, and millions more in the world, that didn’t have the opportunity you had to get to where you are.  Your idea of what’s righteous isn’t the same elsewhere.  Unfortunately, you won’t realize this for many years.

It’s going to take at least that long to mentally escape the ultra-conservative, white-bred geographic area and culture from which you came.  In a way, it’s just like your dad told you:  There are a lot of jerks ‘out there’ – but it turns out, you may be someone else’s ‘out there.’

You don’t know this yet, but being an upper-middle-class, white male in America is as cushy as it gets.  Since you’ve never been anywhere that wasn’t dominated by upper-middle-class white males, you will tend to think that’s how the world works.

Don’t do that.  You’ll eventually figure it out, but unfortunately, a lot of folks won’t.  They’ll always think their own version of society should be the same everywhere, which was a problem thirty years before you were born, and will be a problem over your next thirty years as well.  It’s still called bigotry.

So listen to me now and believe me not too much later, you started the marathon at the 15-mile mark.  There’s still a long way to go, but it could be worse for you, and it is worse for plenty of others.  Be more thoughtful and understanding, and teach your kids to do the same.

Most importantly, don’t believe everything you hear, especially from something that you’ll later refer to as the ‘internet.’  Think for yourself.  Find out for yourself.  Decide for yourself.  This lesson will come in very handy in your professional life, too.

Any by the way, please pay more attention to the lyrics of songs, not just the rhythm.  You’ll thank me later.  Also, you might want to reconsider being a Vikings fan.

Best Regards,

Older Me

Best Song Lyrics (Part XVIII)

I've been listening to a lot more music in the past year or so.  Part of it is because I've started to use headphones (at a low volume level) while biking.  Another reason is because I've had access to a couple of temporary subscriptions to satellite radio, with it vast number of specialty channels.

Regardless, I've heard a lot of old songs that remind me how good music can be.  One artist that I've been listening to more, and only recently gained an appreciation of, is Bob Seger.

It doesn't matter if it's a solo song or more likely with his famous Silver Bullet Band, Seger has a great library of stuff.  Some of it may have gained excessive popularity from a movie (Old Time Rock and Roll from Risky Business) or from a commercial (Like A Rock from Chevy).  However, other stuff probably deserved more popularity than it got.

As an example of his many great songs with great lyrics, I give you one about a romantic proposition between lonely friends, We've Got Tonight.

I know it's late, I know you're weary
I know your plans don't include me
Still here we are, both of us lonely
Longing for shelter from all that we see
Why should we worry, no one will care girl
Look at the stars so far away
We've got tonight, who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight babe
Why don't you stay?

Deep in my soul, I've been so lonely
All of my hopes, fading away
I've longed for love, like everyone else does
I know I'll keep searching, even after today
So there it is girl, I've said it all now
And here we are babe, what do you say?
We've got tonight, who needs tomorrow?
We've got tonight babe
Why don't you stay?

The View From My Back Deck

It's a beautiful evening, not hot, not cold, and importantly, not buggy.  It's an unusually good summer evening to sit on my back deck with a beverage and some music, and take a look around.

First I see my neighbor to the east.  She’s been widowed for years now.  She’s out doing yard work, which she seemed to have enjoyed a lot more 10 years ago, but not so much now that she’s around 80 years old.  A few weeks ago, she told me she recently retired, and was spending more time with her great-grandchildren.   Unfortunately, she doesn’t get to spend as much time with them as she wants, because now she has a houseful to help take care of, too.  That’s because in the past year, she’s allowed four people to move in with her:  Her partially disabled, adult son (or brother, not sure); her grandson’s mother-in-law, who is effectively renting her basement for $100 a month; and now her adult granddaughter and the granddaughter’s boyfriend.  Let’s just say, this neighbor has some people taking advantage of her Iowa Nice.

Now I see the adult granddaughter and the boyfriend.   They walked out to check the mail, although it isn’t clear why that task needed both of them.  Maybe they were on one of their outdoor smoke breaks?  My neighbor allowed them to move in with her a few months ago – even though she doesn’t approve of them living together.  She told me she’s hoping to ”straighten out” the girl, implying social/legal problems in the past.   Since the couple has lived there, there has been no sign they’re working, they clearly have no ambition to help with any yard work, and their dog disappeared (or more likely, ran away from them).   Clearly, there is a lot of straightening out still to be done.

Now I see my neighbors to the northeast.  He and his wife, daughter, and daughter’s boyfriend are just returning from an afternoon of boating.  They have a nice boat they keep at home, and they’re very good about getting out with it in the summer.   He runs his own business out of his garage, has some nice toys (like the boat) and keeps a clean property, although in 15 years I’ve never seen his wife or daughter do any of the work on said property.  The daughter is a bit of a wild child, and although she’s still in high school, he’s mentioned that he’s ready for her to move out.  We’ve heard shouting matches many times over the years, although on this evening, like the weather, it’s calm.

Now I see the wife carrying their old, grungy-looking dog outside and setting it on the front lawn.  This is her version of walking the dog.  It’s been this way for years, probably since the month after they got the dog, after ‘new puppy’ syndrome wore off.  Within a minute, the dog poops basically in the same spot where it was set down, and hobbles back to the front door to be let in again.  Every year, this makes for an interesting patchwork of deep green grass next to the lighter greens and brown parts of the lawn.  Of course, the whole thing is pathetic – and I mean both the dog and the way it’s treated.  Good grief, why do people keep dogs that they don’t want to care for properly?

No time to worry about that now.  It's still a beautiful evening, and only a few minutes have passed.  Time to enjoy the simple pleasures of my more uncomplicated life.

Saving Investors From Themselves

One of the smartest financial journalists I follow is Jason Zweig.  He isn't a media darling, but he's fairly well-known for writing a column for the Wall Street Journal, and he's also authored books and operates his own web / blogging site at jasonzweig.com.

I was looking at his blog archive recently, and came across a gem from three years ago called, "Saving Investors From Themselves."  He's writing about financial journalists, but he could just as well be writing about financial advisors.

Here's an excerpt -- if you don't want to read it all, at least read the last sentence.

I was once asked, at a journalism conference, how I defined my job.  I said:  My job is to write the exact same thing between 50 and 100 times a year in such a way that neither my editors nor my readers will ever think I am repeating myself.

That’s because good advice rarely changes, while markets change constantly.  The temptation to pander is almost irresistible.  And while people need good advice, what they want is advice that sounds good.

In practice, for most of the media, that requires telling people to buy Internet stocks in 1999 and early 2000; explaining, in 2005 and 2006, how to “flip” houses; in 2008 and 2009, it meant telling people to dump their stocks and even to buy “leveraged inverse” exchange-traded funds that made explosively risky bets against stocks; and ever since 2008, it has meant touting bonds and the “safety trade” like high-dividend-paying stocks and so-called minimum-volatility stocks.

It’s no wonder that, as brilliant research by the psychologist Paul Andreassen showed many years ago, people who receive frequent news updates on their investments earn lower returns than those who get no news.  It’s also no wonder that the media has ignored those findings.  Not many people care to admit that they spend their careers being part of the problem instead of trying to be part of the solution.

My job, as I see it, is to learn from other people’s mistakes and from my own.  Above all, it means trying to save people from themselves.  As the founder of security analysis, Benjamin Graham, wrote in The Intelligent Investor in 1949: “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

From financial history and from my own experience, I long ago concluded that regression to the mean is the most powerful law in financial physics:  Periods of above-average performance are inevitably followed by below-average returns, and bad times inevitably set the stage for surprisingly good performance.

But humans perceive reality in short bursts and streaks, making a long-term perspective almost impossible to sustain – and making most people prone to believing that every blip is the beginning of a durable opportunity.

My role, therefore, is to bet on regression to the mean even as most investors, and financial journalists, are betting against it.  I try to talk readers out of chasing whatever is hot and, instead, to think about investing in what is not hot.  Instead of pandering to investors’ own worst tendencies,  I try to push back.  My role is also to remind them constantly that knowing what not to do is much more important than what to do.  Approximately 99% of the time, the single most important thing investors should do is absolutely nothing.

Dear Graduating Class of 2016

So ends another school year, and so begins another attempt at imparting wisdom upon this year’s graduates.  In the past, I’ve sometimes had messages for both high school and college graduates.   I’m going to ignore the scholastic grads this year, maybe from this point forward.  18-year-olds are so brainwashed from living in the same social-political-economic environment their whole lives, I don’t see how they can process an outsider’s advice anyway, much less execute it.  But college grads – they have no excuse.

So to the college graduates of 2016:

Let me start by saying that I’m withholding my congratulations.  Oh sure, you may have done enough to get your degree, but what’s the accomplishment in that?  I've previously chided the act of celebrating high school diplomas, and as for you, was there ever a doubt that with enough time and money, you would eventually graduate?

Let’s get real.  With apologies to the rocket scientists out there, getting a college degree isn’t rocket science.  Heck, you didn’t even need to GO to college to get a degree.  Thanks to technology, not to mention lower standards, you can get a degree on-line for the most part.  If it was going to take a massive effort to get degree, you probably wouldn’t have gone to college in the first place.

As for what's next, like I've said to your predecessors, if you haven't figured that out yet, you've already made your first real-life screw up.  That's what the last 4 or 5 or 5+ years were for.  If that's you, then you're probably headed back to live in your all-too-willing parents' basement for an undisclosed period of time.  So much for repeating my best advice from last year to “go out there and try to never move back in with your parents!"

However, regardless of whether you are unemployed and living with your parents, or you are planning to travel the world and live day-by-day, or you actually have a job, there are still important things you now must do.  Be responsible.  Be accountable.  Be socially aware.  Have an opinion.  Have a sense of humor.  Improve yourself.  Positively influence those around you.

Most of all, figure out a way to contribute to the betterment of society -- it's not so hard.  For some of you that might mean staying in your parents basement, so if that's what you were going for, it all worked out.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2016

About this time of the year, I post my annual recap of items discussed at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.  This year, instead of concentrating on topics, I'm going to concentrate on some of the more interesting / funny statments from either Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger:

On the choices of women:
If the choice is between two old rich men, choose the older man!

On getting advice from relatives:
A lot of people have terrible relatives.

On a town with no population growth:
Every time a girl got pregnant, some guy had to leave town!

On successful debating:
You should know the other person's argument better than he does.

On working in difficult businesses:
Somebody has to occupy the tough niches in the economy!

On competition:
Win fairly and lose wisely.

And finally, since the meeting was live-streamed for the first time ever this year, I'm going to link to that, and tell you to watch from the 2:42 to 2:55 mark, where Buffett gives a can't miss lesson about successful investing by minimizing expenses.
https://finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/

A Good Use Of Twitter

Several weeks ago, there was some media attention given to Twitter's tenth anniversary.  Some of that attention focused on the negatives of Twitter, namely that it makes some people believe they're more important than they really are.  (I'm looking at you, B-list celebrities and athletes.)

However, one article I read was someone's list of the 100 funniest jokes in the history of Twitter.  It seems odd, but while some jokes are funny when spoken, others only work in print.  The latter is one of the best things about Twitter, and it's made even better by the fact they have to work in 140 characters or less.  The joke has to be short, therefore, it has to be smart.

Here are a few of my favorites from that list of 100, most of which would only work in print:

Most cutting thing you can say is "who's this clown?" because it implies they're a) a clown & b) not even one of the better-known clowns

ME: honey, it's really muggy out today
WIFE: if I go outside & all our mugs are on the front lawn, I'm leaving u
ME: *sips coffee from bowl*

When you’re cutting wrapping paper and your scissors start to glide is what I imagine heroin feels like

[ordering cake over phone]
"and what would you like the cake to say?"
[covers phone to ask wife]
"do we want a talking cake?"

"Anybody here named Jeff?"
Jeff: "Yes"
Geoff: "Yeos"

The best thing about trying to name a baby is realizing how many people you hate

-The name's Bond. James Bond.
-I've written Bond now.
-Oh. Can you change it or is it too late?
-When your coffee's ready they'll call Bond

I put the "baller" in "I just ruined my daughter's ballerina recital."

COP: u were swerving a lot so i have to conduct a sobriety test
ME: ok
COP: lets get taco bell
ME: no
COP: text ur ex
ME: no
COP: ok ur good

When parents say to kids "go to ur room & think about what you've done" it's really good practice for what you'll do every night as an adult

What my girlfriend thought, first 4 dates:
1. Nice shirt.
2. Wow. A second nice shirt.
3. Okay, first shirt again.
4. He has two shirts.

(•_•) (•_•)
<) )╯ ALAS
/ \

(•_•)
\(•_•)
( (> POOR
/ \

(•_•)
<) )> YORICK
/ \ (•_•)

Mayo-praise

Due in part to a major medical issue from 15+ years ago, I occasionally go to Mayo Clinic in Rochester, Minnesota for diagnostic testing and check-ups.  It started out as a kind of second opinion on treatment I'd already received, to help determine if there was a different / better course going forward.  I got comfortable with doctor(s) I saw there, and it morphed into semi-annual, then annual, and now once every 3-5 years deal at my discretion.

I made my latest Mayo visit this week.  It's about a 3 hour, one-way trip, and although I've done the entire visit in a day, I usually add a one-night hotel stay.  When I go now, I'm contemplative about the prior visits, and why I still go there.

The bottom line is, Mayo is different than other health care providers.  In dozens of testing appointments over the years, I've rarely had to wait.  The staff has always been 'Minnesota Nice' in those times.  Perhaps best of all, the diagnostic testing reports are done immediately, so I can visit the doctor, often in the same building, within a couple of hours to hear the outcome.

Factor in that the Mayo Clinic doctors are salaried staff.  They don't get paid more for seeing more patients, or for ordering more tests.  It's a very patient-friendly model, and from that perspective, it's almost infuriating that health care organizations aren't all mandated to operate in that same way.

However, it isn't the most financially-friendly model.  It's definitely more expensive, for both the testing and the doctor visits.  So, if you don't have insurance coverage, there may be a question of value, something that can't be overlooked.

Fortunately, I have insurance.  I also have a desire to  go to a place where I'll know about any medical breakthroughs related to my condition / treatment, if and when that happens.  I still feel the trip to the Mayo Clinic is worth the extra time and cost.

Ratings > Perspective

Today there was a funeral for a Des Moines police officer, one of two killed last week in a late night interstate highway collision.  The officers were transporting an inmate from another jurisdiction when they were hit by a presumed drunk driver, who was driving on the wrong side of the road.

As with the other officer buried earlier in the week, there were scores of other law enforcement personnel in attendance from other parts of Iowa and the country.  That’s not a surprise.  What is a surprise, at least to me, is the production scope of the visitation and funeral ceremonies, and the media attention being given to these events.

For the past four days, main roads have been shut down for extended periods so the bodies could be transported from funeral homes to churches to burial sites.  These transports have included processions of dozens, perhaps hundreds, of police and fire department vehicles, with hundreds, if not thousands, of people paying their respects at the churches, or by standing along these procession routes.  And in something I believe to be unprecedented, there has been live TV coverage of the funerals on multiple stations.

Don’t get me wrong, the death of these police officers (plus two others, including the driver of the other car and the prisoner being transported) is tragic.  But can we at least agree that relative to other tragic deaths, the amount of attention being given to their funerals is somewhat disproportional to what happened.

Yes, they were on duty, and the law enforcement code rightfully gives them and their families an outpouring of support and respect.  However, they were not doing anything heroic.  Being killed by a (allegedly) drunk driver isn’t the same as being killed by taking a bullet, or running into a burning house, or trying to quell a riot.  The manner in which they died could have, and has, happened to countless others before them, both on the job and off.  And while those incidents often garner much support and attention, it isn’t anything like this.  Not even close.

To put it into more perspective, consider a military member killed on the other side of the world in Iraq or Afghanistan or some other god forsaken place.  Yes, the military gives that person tremendous respect, and the funeral is given much attention.  However, it receives nowhere near the attention that the public and media are giving to these officers.  And let’s be real, that military member deserves at least as much, probably more attention, given their sacrifice.  They are doing something extraordinary, just being on the other side of the world for months or years, regardless of the cause of death.

I blame the local media for whipping up public sentiment beyond the pale.  They’ve made it a race to see which TV or radio or newspaper or even social media outlet can show that they have more empathy about the local police officer deaths.  Consequently, people are paying more than the usual amount of attention.  That isn’t the fault of the officers, or their families, or I suppose even the police department.  But the whole thing is out of proportion nonetheless.

It reminds me of many years ago when Princess Diana died, and then Mother Teresa of Calcutta died days later.  Diana’s funeral became worldwide spectacle, covered live by international media.  Mother Teresa’s funeral deserved every bit as much coverage, probably more given the circumstances, but only grudgingly got some.  Ratings, you know.  It might have gotten none at all without the guilt of the networks for their over-the-top coverage of Diana.

I’ve privately mentioned my surprise to a few folks, and no one disagrees, but no one dares say it out loud.  Let’s just say the next time a local soldier is killed, I’d better see wall-to-wall media coverage about it.  It’s just a matter of time before another law enforcement or military funeral doesn’t have the same coverage, when there will be some public backlash.

Death With Dignity

Imagine being able to vote for reducing, and perhaps eliminating, human pain and suffering.  Now, imagine voting against that.

This is what's happening in the Iowa legislature right now -- and I'm not even talking about medical marijuana!  I'm talking about a proposed Death With Dignity Act, which is more widely (and crudely) known as physician-assisted suicide.

This may seem like a radical idea in Iowa, but it isn't elsewhere.  Oregon currently has a similar Death With Dignity Act, and other states are considering it.

Under the Iowa version of this Act, "An adult patient who is competent, is a resident of this state, has been determined by the patient’s attending physician and consulting physician to be suffering from a terminal disease, and has voluntarily expressed a wish to die, may make a written request for medication that the patient may self-administer to end the patient’s life…”

In short, this would allow some terminally-ill, suffering Iowans the option of a more peaceful, non-painful death.  It would reduce human pain and suffering.  So naturally, social conservatives (mostly Republicans) and our governor-for-life Terry Branstad, oppose it.

Taking one's life is obviously not something to be taken lightly.  And this Act doesn't do that.  It simply allows a competent person the freedom to make a choice to forego their pain, a choice that harms no one else.

It's different, yet in some ways the same as the medical marijuana debate.  The old, white, conservative males who dominate the legislative and executive branch are either unable or unwilling to understand that science, and attitudes, change over time.  They think they know better -- don't confuse them with evidence to the contrary.

The other day, a friend of mine put it about as eloquently as you can:  Some people just don't believe in evolution, past or present.

Ruining A Great Invention

The internet, as we know it, has been around since roughly 1990.  It was only for sending and receiving text at first, but by the mid-to-late 1990s, the World Wide Web became available.  This allowed us to electronically visit places (web sites) with pictures and later videos, which we would ultimately be able to pass along to others.

With that brief history of the internet in mind, I would compare it to any of mankind’s greatest inventions.  It may not be quite up there with the alphabet or the automobile, but it’s at least in the conversation with the printing press.

Unfortunately, that conversation would have to include whether the internet is now used as much for evil as it is for good, thanks in part to the proliferation of Facebook / Twitter / social media.  I don’t just mean terrorist type evil, either.  I mean the little bits of evil, things like trolling and bullying, and lies that get passed along as fact and influence behavior in a negative way.

I’m not the most internet-connected person, yet not a day goes by that I don’t see a false or questionable internet-sourced item that’s presented as fact.  (This is particularly true in national political election years like this one.)  It happened to me today, it happened to me yesterday, it will surely happen to me tomorrow.

I’m usually skeptical enough to figure it out on my own (sometimes with the help of snopes.com) but let’s face it, most people swallow whatever they’re sent as the truth.  That wouldn’t be so bad, but in our instant gratification world, those fake-truth-swallowers not only agree with what they see, they also have to affirm it, often by sending it along to other fake-truth-swallowers.

Using the internet in this way this isn’t good for civilization, but short of another evil called censorship, there are no rules of engagement to keep it from happening.  That’s a shame, really, for one of the greatest inventions of all-time.

Fiduciary Rules!

Within the next few months, the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to release final rules that will impose a fiduciary standard of care on financial advisors (including insurance agents) working with qualified retirement employer-sponsored plans and individual retirement accounts.  While I'm generally against more regulations, this happens to be of the best and most overdue pieces of federal rule-making ever.

First, let’s clarify the two different rules under which financial advisors currently operate.

Suitability Standard of Care
Most financial advisors, including financial company representatives and insurance salespersons, operate under the suitability standard of care.  Generally speaking, the suitability standard simply requires the advisor to 1) know the client and their financial situation, and 2) recommend products that are suitable for their situation.

Fiduciary Standard of Care
Some financial advisors, including Certified Financial Planner® professionals, must operate under the fiduciary standard of care.  Under this standard, advisors must 1) put the client's best interest first; 2) act with prudence, meaning with the skill, diligence and good judgment of a professional; 3) provide full and fair disclosure of all important facts; 4) avoid conflicts of interest; and 5) fully disclose and fairly manage, in the client's favor, unavoidable conflicts.

While the general public often assumes financial advisors are working in the client’s best interests, in fact, most are not bound to do so.  The new Labor Department rules would change that, making the fiduciary standard the actual standard in financial advising.  It boils down to every advisor following the highest standard of care regarding investment advice and retirement planning.

Seems like a slam-dunk, right?  In truth, large financial institutions (particularly insurers) are spending millions in a lobbying effort to stop the rules from being codified.  There is only one viable reason for this:  Greed.

Big financial institutions use the fecklessness of the suitability rule to sell lots of useless financial products to trusting people who don't need them, thereby capturing huge commissions and other fees.  This is great for the company, while simultaneously terrible for everyone else.  In short, those companies value profits over people.

Let's just hope this fiduciary rule regulation is made final, and comes with the enforcement it deserves.

RIP Glenn Frey

Already this year, two rock music icons have passed away, David Bowie and Glenn Frey.  I was a little too young to appreciate them in their prime years, basically the 1970s.  They both continued to put out new, popular music well into the 1980s, but their best recorded stuff was basically over once we hit the 1990s.

I was never a Bowie fan, he always seemed to me like some strange dude from England, although I will admit that the song Modern Love does take me back to my college days.  Glenn Frey, however – that’s  a different story.

I finally got to see an Eagles concert in person a couple of years ago, on one of their reunion tours.  Frey couldn’t quite make it to the highest notes, but otherwise I thought he (along with Don Henley, Joe Walsh, and Timothy B. Schmit) sounded a lot like their recordings from decades ago.

Frey’s solo career wasn’t as good as Henley’s, but it was decent, with saxophone-heavy tracks like The One You Love, The Heat Is On, and You Belong to the City.  Regardless, he’s going to be remembered for all of the classic Eagles stuff, some of which I’m just starting to really appreciate for the first time.

One example of an Eagles tune that I never liked that much until the past few years, one in which Frey sings the lead-vocal, is Lyin’ Eyes.  It was far from their most popular song, but the way the lyrics are laid out to tell the story is as good as it gets:

City girls just seem to find out early
How to open doors with just a smile
A rich old man
And she won't have to worry
She'll dress up all in lace and go in style

Late at night a big old house gets lonely
I guess every form of refuge has its price
And it breaks her heart to think her love is only
Given to a man with hands as cold as ice

So she tells him she must go out for the evening
To comfort an old friend who's feelin' down
But he knows where she's goin' as she's leavin'
She is headed for the cheatin' side of town

[Chorus]
You can't hide your lyin' eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you'd realize
There ain't no way to hide your lyin eyes

On the other side of town a boy is waiting
With fiery eyes and dreams no one could steal
She drives on through the night anticipating
'Cause he makes her feel the way she used to feel

She rushes to his arms; they fall together
She whispers that it's only for awhile
She swears that soon she'll be comin' back forever
She pulls away and leaves him with a smile

[Chorus]

She gets up and pours herself a strong one,
And stares out at the stars up in the sky.
Another night, it's gonna be a long one.
She draws the shade and hangs her head to cry.

She wonders how it ever got this crazy.
She thinks about a boy she knew in school.
Did she get tired or did she just get lazy?
She's so far gone she feels just like a fool.

My oh my, you sure know how to arrange things.
You set it up so well, so carefully.
Ain't it funny how your new life didn't change things?
You're still the same old girl you used to be.

[Chorus]

A Candidate Guide, Circa 2016

With the first-in-the-nation caucuses only days away, Iowa is once again in the national political spotlight.  It’s time for my quadrennial assessment of the remaining candidates (here's the 2012 version), in alphabetical order by party:

DEMOCRATS

Hillary Clinton
The good: She’s easily the most credentialed to be president.  The bad: There’s something unlikable about her quest for political power, even after reinventing herself as a senator and cabinet member.

Martin O’Malley
The former governor of Maryland seems smart and likable enough, but he definitely picked the wrong cycle to run for president.

Bernie Sanders
Every four years, it seems there’s a grandfatherly-looking candidate with an unusual message who sparks an interest with younger voters.  The last time, it was Republican-Libertarian Ron Paul.  This time, it’s Democratic-Socialist Bernie Sanders.

REPUBLICANS

Jeb Bush
All that PAC money, all that name legacy, and he’s seems to be getting no traction.  Maybe we have had enough of the Bush family in the White House.  He just doesn’t stand out in this field.

Chris Christie
Not the best bedside manner, but that’s a net good, it makes him look less Washington-insider.  He won’t do well in Iowa, but he could do well elsewhere.  Also: Must lose more weight, America doesn't elect unhealthy-looking presidents.

Ted Cruz
Take a ring-wing whack-job who’s disliked by his own party, and add support from Iowa’s own resident whack-job congressman, Steve King.  This is how you identify the Republicans’ potential Iowa caucus winner.  (Has it really been 2+ years since I wrote this?)

John Kasich
Probably the Republican candidate most appealing to independents, someone who seems to understand that governing is a compromise.  Unfortunately, that means it will be tough for him to win.

Rand Paul
Younger folks like him, but his mostly libertarian message isn't getting the traction it did when his father, Ron, ran in 2012.  Interestingly, he can partly thank Bernie Sanders for that.

Marco Rubio
Youth, intelligence, ethnicity, and likability are in his favor.  He could win the nomination, but if he goes too far to the right to do it (a la Mitt Romney), he’ll have a hard time being elected president.

Donald Trump
He’s the Frankenstein’s monster created by the Tea-Party Republicans, and now they can’t control him.  I still predict he’ll eventually ruin his reputation(?) along with the Republicans’ chances of winning.

Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum
Thanks for visiting Iowa!  Now go home, and stop trying to make a career out of running for president.

Everything's Coming Up Roses

I traveled to Los Angeles over the New Year's holiday weekend, for a bucket list trip to attend the Rose Bowl and Tournament of Roses Parade in Pasadena.  With the Iowa Hawkeyes playing (Standford) in the bowl game, I figured I wouldn't have a better chance to go, along with 30,000 or so other Iowans (some of whom I knew and bumped into there).

My observations, in chronological order:

* The Santa Monica Pier, and surrounding city and beach, was a great place for us Midwestern tourists to gather.  Seeing the sunset over a beach on New Year's Eve isn't normal, but I could get used to it.

* Pasadena is a tree-filled, skyscraper-less suburb that could pass for a thousand other college towns anywhere in the America.  (Cal-Tech is at its center.)

* The parade exceeded my expectations.  The route is 5.5 miles long, so it isn't that hard to find a spot to watch as long as you aren't near the start.  Standing among the locals around the parade mid-point was perfect.  The colors, the music, the floats, the celebrities -- it was all very cool, and the two hours went by very fast.

* If you go to the parade, and then the game, there isn't a lot of transition time between the two.  Driving or shuttling to the game was almost impossible with the traffic, so most parade attendees made the 2+ miles walk.  Couple that with extremely tight security at the stadium gates, and it takes a while to get to your seat.

* The Rose Bowl Stadium experience was second-to-none.  Not sure there is any other 100,000-seat stadium in the world in such a park-like setting.  Factor in that I'd seen it on TV dozens of times on New Year's Day, but always in the cold and dark of an Iowa winter, when it looked like it was on another planet.  The game outcome may have been awful for Iowa football fans, but at least the Stanford band was entertaining.

* So many freeways, so many cars in LA.  And this was a holiday weekend.  Let's just say that Google maps and traffic came in very handy.

More Brutal Vikings (Not The Nordic Kind)

We interrupt our planned blog entry to bring you breaking news.....

As background, six years ago, I posted this account of what it's like to be a Minnesota Vikings football fan, and listed my Top 5 most brutal Vikings losses of all-time.  I now can add a new one that I'll label as 'tied for fifth':

T-5.  2016 Wild-Card playoff game at home versus the Seattle Seahawks.  In the third-coldest game at kickoff in NFL history, in a game the Vikings were not favored to win (mostly based on a big regular-season loss at home to the same team a month earlier), Minnesota trails 10-9 with under 30 seconds to go.  However, they've made a last minute drive deep into Seattle territory, and line up for a likely game-winning field goal of just 27 yards.  Their fine placekicker, Blair Walsh, had already kicked three other field goals in the difficult conditions, so as long as the snap and hold were good, this was going to be a big win.....and he shanked the kick way left.

There are those that would put this higher on my list (or theirs), but given the stakes of a Wild Card game versus a championship game, given they weren't favored to win anyway, and given that they'd still have to win two more playoff games (at least one and probably both on the road), I don't currently rate it higher.  If this young Vikings team goes no farther in the next couple of years, I could see it rising in my rankings.

Either way, brutal.