A Candidate Guide, Circa 2020

Next week, Iowa hosts its semi-famous political caucuses.  The attention this year is even more overwhelming than usual, thanks to a toxic political climate and social media.

It's time for my quadrennial assessment of the remaining candidates who are spending time in Iowa, this year limited to the Democratic Party since the Republican party is set on nominating the current ignorant, corrupt, and impeachable president.  In alphabetical order:

Joe Biden -- The safest, most moderate pick for the Dems.  A known commodity with the best chance of winning the electoral votes in the states that matter most.  He would be an more formidable candidate if he was several years younger.

Pete Buttigieg -- His moderate temperament and views, along with his military service, make him interesting.  A lack of political baggage is also a plus, but a lack of experience is a negative.  It's very surprising that he's made it this far.

Amy Klobuchar -- Another moderate whose views are reasonable and nationally appealing, and she has a neighboring state, midwestern likability to her.  However, that likability doesn't translate into passionate support for her candidacy.

Bernie Sanders -- He's been in this race before, so he knows the issues, has refined his message, and has the name recognition.  Has popularity with younger voters given his populist message, but that probably hurts more than helps in a national election.

Tom Steyer -- The 'attack Trump' strategy has appeal with some, but everyone knows he's just in it for issue advocacy and name recognition, right?

Elizabeth Warren -- The most intellectually appealing candidate, with a detailed plan for almost  everything.  Her energy and experience also help, but she limits her chances by being too far left on a few issues, namely college debt and health care.

Andrew Yang -- Doesn't seem there's any chance he'd win with no experience, but everyone should listen to what he's saying about the future of the U.S. workforce and economy.

Not mentioned is Mike Bloomberg, who isn't campaigning in Iowa but who could have an impact on the actual nominee, assuming it isn't him.

Less Brutal Vikings, A Short List

Two years ago I wrote about a rare thrilling playoff victory by the Minnesota Vikings.  This is a favorite professional team of mine for which I’ve documented many brutal losses over the years, but as I said then, I’d never bothered to come up with a list of big wins.

The Vikings just had another exciting playoff victory a week ago, so I decided it was time to come up with my list of the five greatest Vikings wins in history.  Let’s just say it wasn’t easy, because in the last 40 years, there aren’t that many.

1)  2018 NFC Divisional playoff game at home versus the New Orleans Saints.  This game is now known as the Minneapolis Miracle.

2) 2020 NFC Wild Card playoff game in OT at New Orleans Saints.  I know, the Saints again two years later.  An exciting, unexpected win, but it’s still small consolation for losing the 2010 NFC Championship game there in OT.

3) 1980 regular season game at home versus the Cleveland Browns.  The Vikings won on a two-play, 80-yard drive with a hitch-and-pitch, then a long Hail Mary TD pass to Ahmad Rashad on the last play of the game, clinching the division and a playoff spot.

4) 2004 Wild Card playoff game at the Green Bay Packers.  Memorable for beating their arch-rival in a road playoff game, but even more memorable when receiver Randy Moss caught a game-clinching TD pass, and then faked mooned the fans.

5) 1976 NFC Championship game at home versus the Los Angeles Rams.  As of now, it's the the last time the Vikings won a game to advance to the Super Bowl.  It was a great team, with great kick-blocking special teams, but one that would lose the Super Bowl to the Oakland Raiders 32-14.  And they haven’t been back since.

2020

Another year is ending, this one also concluding a decade.  It would be a good time for a retrospective piece on the past ten years, but lots of other entities are doing that.  I'll just stick to my usual review of the things I wanted to have happen this year, and consider some things I would like to see happen in 2020.  We'll again start with the prior year's list, with comments in ALL CAPS:

The resignation or impeachment of a mentally unstable and unqualified president -- again, no names.
IMPEACHMENT HAPPENED.  I CARRIED THIS OVER FORM THE PRIOR YEAR, WHICH TURNED OUR TO BE VERY PRESCIENT.

The electric vehicle becoming America's fastest growing (by percentage) seller.
THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE U.K. BUT NOT IN THE U.S.

Alabama and Clemson and New England to have poor football seasons.
THEY WEREN'T POOR, BUT ALABAMA AND NEW ENGLAND AT LEAST HAD DOWN YEARS.

Some major medical breakthrough, perhaps a vaccine to eliminate a dread disease.
NO.

Consistent, moderate summer rain in central Iowa.
YES.

A priest actually arrested and charged and jailed for past sexual abuse.
THIS DID HAPPEN IN PENNSYLVANIA.  IT WAS TOO PREDICTABLE, AND NOT NEARLY ENOUGH.

More cities allowing app-based scooter rentals.
WHILE MORE CITIES DID ADOPT THEM, OTHER CITIES STARTED TO RESTRICT THEM.

Another scandal that ruins another Fox (News) TV personality.
NOT REALLY, ALTHOUGH THE PRIOR SCANDALS AND CURRENT PROPAGANDA AT FOX DID CAUSE SHEP SMITH TO LEAVE.

U.S. restaurants that allow payment by app, OR that bring the credit card reader to your table.THIS STILL HASN'T RECEIVED WIDESPREAD U.S. ADOPTION, WHICH IS SORT OF INFURIATING.

Me traveling to one of the five continental states in which I've never set foot.I WAS ABLE TO CROSS OFF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM MY LIST.  DOWN TO IDAHO, MICHIGAN, MONTANA, AND NORTH DAKOTA.  (IT WAS ACTUALLY SIX.).

Now, for 2020 I'd like to see these things happen:

Me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I've never set foot.

A new president-elect and a corresponding surviving, independent, democratic republic.

More chances to make a hole-in-one (which means more time to play golf).

Widespread acceptance of plant-based meats on restaurant menus.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 16 consecutive playoff game losses.

Consolidation in the video streaming service industry.

A Summer Olympics without scandal.

Greater federal regulation of Facebook, and less people using it to show me pictures of their food.

A new artist who brings back the sound of classic rock.

That I never order from a bar that tells me it has no Crown Royal Apple.

Correlation Is Not Causation

A few years have passed since I’ve blogged about investing.  I used to post more about it when I worked at a firm where I put myself in charge of writing a quarterly investment newsletter of sorts; then I’d basically copy and paste what I’d already written.

One of the themes of that prior investment writing I did was how there was little, if any, correlation between how the markets perform over long periods and virtually any other specific individual thing.  Investing history and statistics prove that if X happens, it does not impact the future of Y.

The best current example of this investing correlation mistake is people who want to correlate the political parties with stock market performance.  The fact is, there has never been a correlation between those two things.  [Note to those Republicans who still believe those things are related, you actually want a Democrat in office, because the stock market went up more during three democratic presidential terms than for any republican presidency.]

Another very broad example of this investing correlation fallacy involves technical trading, which is buying or selling based on nothing more than the grid lines on a chart. For some, these simple securities price charts signal a breakout up or down, ergo an investing opportunity.  It's amazing how many otherwise smart people believe in this type of technical 'strategy' when it has nothing to do with the underlying company.  It's stupid.

This all makes me think, what other things do people want to positively or negatively correlate that have no real correlation?  There are so many, but here are a few that annoy me:

* Scholastic grades and intelligence.

* Hours spent at the office and work.

* Owning a Fitbit (or other electronic health tracking device) and weight loss.

A New Decade Of Thanklessness

Thanksgiving 2019 means the start of a second decade for my annual list of things for which I'm not thankful.  It's almost sad how easy it is to compile a new list every year -- it's becoming a literary version of me telling kids to get the hell off of my lawn.  Anyway, here it is, in random order:

Ticketmaster charges.

Using social media to make well-wishes to people who aren't on social media.

The Baby Shark song.

White Claw (beverages).

Pro basketball (NBA) load management.

Old-school British period shows.

Vaping and vapers.

Anyone promoting a multi-level marketing program.

Corrupt family dynasties.

Annuities and financial products by any other name.

Martinis without blue cheese stuffed olives.

Cold-weather golf.

Spicy chicken sandwiches.

The phrase, "OK, Boomer."

Carolina In My Mind

Took a trip recently to an area of the U.S. where I'd never been, the Carolinas.  Some observations:

• North Carolina is a little bit like Iowa.  The eastern part of the state is more populous, with lots of medical institutions and places of higher education, while the western half is mostly rural, where most of the pork production is happening. In my opinion, Vermont is the only other state more similar to Iowa, because the similar climate and (lack of) cultural diversity.  South Carolina met the stereotype of the Deep South.  People had thicker accents, and seemed to play up their so-called southern charm in their fashion and behavior.

• Before this trip, I had only heard of the Biltmore estate in passing.  Turns out to be quite a tourist attraction in Asheville, NC, and one worth the visit.  It's mind-boggling to think that nearly 150 years ago, George Vanderbilt was so wealthy and big-thinking to spend many years to plan and purchase thousands of acres of land, and build a small part of it into a self-sustaining estate, including a 180,000 square foot mansion.  It's essentially a European-style kingdom / castle, slightly more modernized for the times.  (The estate also provided the biggest surprise of the trip -- the site of a family of black bears randomly crossing the road.)

• Visited a plantation near Charleston, NC, one that's still 'working' in the sense it still produces crops.  It's main revenue these days, however, is generated by hosting events like weddings and concerts.  Some small brick structures stood in a row not far from the main house -- the former slaves' quarters.  This plantation had a couple of storytellers on hand, one a local slave ancestor, to provide a history of life there in the 1800s.  It bothered me that day, and for the rest of the trip, to think of the incredibly inhumane treatment of the slaves, not to mention the racism that still exists in around the country.

• Along with the old / historic city of Charleston, the main notable locales visited were Myrtle Beach, SC, and Hilton Head, SC.  Myrtle Beach was a huge, commercialized area with lots of beaches and golf courses for the younger rank-and-file demographic.  Hilton Head was a huge, privatized area with lots of golf courses and beaches for the older wealthy demographic.  I admit it, I liked the Hilton Head vibe a lot more, but it seemed like there was an enormous, uncomfortable economic gap between the retirees / vacationers and the service industry folks who lived and worked there full-time.

(Just 5 more states left to visit: Michigan, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Alaska.)

Best Song Lyrics (Part XXI)

Last week, a list of Rolling Stone magazine’s 100 greatest singers from 2008 resurfaced in the Twitterverse.  Like most things on Twitter, people were complaining about it – the inclusions, omissions, and placing of names on the list.

Buried there at #37, probably a lot higher than he deserved, was Neil Young.  I never thought he was a great singer, and I’m not sure why Rolling Stone magazine thought that, but he was and is a great and prolific songwriter, going back to the early days with the groups Buffalo Springfield and Crosby, Stills, Nash, & Young.

It’s his solo stuff that most will remember, although it isn’t easy to remember everything given his nearly 50-year long solo career.   Always pushing a message of social justice and change, one of his biggest hits was a song released in the late 1980’s, when he was already (incorrectly) considered to be in the late stages of his career…..

Called Rockin’ In The Free World, it was about a U.S. president whose policies he didn’t agree with at the time,  Imagine what he thinks about the current president, given today’s low standards.

There's colors on the street
Red, white and blue
People shufflin' their feet
People sleepin' in their shoes
But there's a warnin' sign
On the road ahead
There's a lot of people sayin'
We'd be better off dead
Don't feel like Satan,
But I am to them
So I try to forget it,
Any way I can

Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world
Keep on rockin' in the free world,
Keep on rockin' in the free world.

I see a woman in the night
With a baby in her hand
Under an old street light
Near a garbage can
Now she puts the kid away,
And she's gone to get a hit
She hates her life,
And what she's done to it
There's one more kid
That will never go to school
Never get to fall in love,
Never get to be cool

(Chorus)

We got a thousand points of light
For the homeless man
We got a kinder, gentler,
Machine gun hand
We got department stores
And toilet paper
Got styrofoam boxes
For the ozone layer
Got a man of the people,
Says keep hope alive
Got fuel to burn,
Got roads to drive

(Chorus)