Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.

You Make Me Sick

After two years of pandemic living, following generally accepted guidelines for social distancing, and getting vaccinated, COVID-19 finally broke through my defenses earlier this month.  I tested positive, my diagnostic confirmation arriving without fanfare via text from a lab.

I haven't had the flu for over 20 years (yes, I've been counting), and I'm vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19, so I expected mild symptoms, and a return to feeling normal within a few days.  Regrettably, it wasn't that simple.

While I did have mild symptoms, I had every single one of them, including congestion, cough, low-grade fever, and fatigue.  Let's just say the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

I'm left to wonder what it would have been like without being vaccinated.  No doubt worse, maybe not hospital-worthy, but who knows?  I'm in reasonably good shape for my age, not overweight, no hypertension or other comorbidities, and COVID-19 sucked.  More than a week later I still have a very minor cough with congestion, and my energy isn't entirely back.

Now, however, I mainly feel resentment, specifically towards the unvaccinated.

I realize everyone reacts differently to COVID-19.  I also realize that unvaccinated people over 50 with other health concerns have a much higher probability of being hospitalized with it and dying from it.  Yet most of them aren’t taking even the simplest precautions.

They are taking unnecessary and uncompensated risks.  Unfortunately, some of that risk is transferred to vaccinated folks like me.  Without them as science-denying hosts, COVID-19 would have nowhere to go, and there would be no variants to keep attacking everyone else.

If they’d get a couple of free shots and show some concern for others, I probably wouldn’t have gotten sick.  What’s not to resent about that?

My wish for them is that one day, COVID-19 holds them accountable in a way that doesn't affect those in the vaccinated world.

In Support Of The Half-Birthday

I'm writing this entry on my half-birthday.  It's six months from my last birthday, and six months to my next birthday.  The question is, do half-birthdays mean anything?

I never used to think so.  Growing up with an August birth month, I never had a school day where others might have recognized even my regular birthday.  It was kind of a bummer when you were youngster, watching everybody else get attention on their birthday that you never got.

Things are a bit different now.  Back then no one celebrated half-birthdays in schools like some elementary classes do now, which is a very nice thing for us summer birthday people.

Also, as I've aged I've paid more attention to half-birthdays, at least my own.  We only have a certain number of trips around the sun, and nowadays I kind of like to mark the halfway point for some perspective on how things are going.

Also, there's at least one half-birthday that's somewhat consequential in America.  That's when a person reach age 59.5, which makes them eligible for penalty-free withdrawals from most retirement accounts.  It's not much, but for people thinking about retiring, it's something.

So let's give it up for the half-birthday.  Why celebrate only once in 365 days when it can be done twice?

Key To The Keys

I recently returned from a trip to Key West, Florida.  It's long been a domestic 'final frontier' of mine, one of the few places I've always wanted to visit, but never have.

Here are my observations:

• While not that far in distance, the drive from Miami to Key West takes 3-4 hours since you're going through several other island keys and resort areas.  It was interesting to see everything, and even stop for food and beverages -- but I wouldn't care to do it again as opposed to flying.

• Viewing the sunset is a big deal at Key West, and hundreds gather each evening for just that activity.  At Mallory Square, the sunset is accompanied by several street performers to pass the time.  For those willing and able, there are lots of sunset cruises on the water available.

• The main tourist hub is Duval Street.  It's a two-mile long stretch of nothing but big bars (some famous, like Ernest Hemingway's old hangout, Sloppy Joes) and restaurants and touristy shops on both sides.  It's amenable to not only walkers but also those on bicycles and scooters.  It was a longer, slightly more family-friendly version of Bourbon Street in New Orleans.

• The Key West Historic Seaport is another tourist hotspot.  There were at least three large restaurants with outdoor seating from where you can watch fishing boats and yachts moving in and out (or cruise on one yourself).  Jimmy Buffett's Key West recording studio is there as well.

• I was expecting more of an island vibe to Key West, kind of laid back with Jimmy Buffett music emanating from every corner.  Turns out it had much more of a classic rock, crossover-county vibe, with a big blue-collar crowd to go along with the affluent tourists, at least after the sun went down.

• Speaking of music.....there was a lot of live music.  It started in the morning at the resorts and a few bars, and it was almost everywhere at night.  It was practically a necessity for a bar to have live music to draw patrons in from the street.

In summary, I'd say if New Orleans mated with Cape Cod, the offspring would end up to be something like Key West.

2022

Last year I implied that 2020 was the worst year of everyone's lifetime, you know, pandemic and all.  This year started with the promise that COVID-19 vaccines would make 2021 relatively normal.  I should have known better.

With that in mind, I’ll try to be less optimistic on my annual list of things I’d like to see happen next year.  But first, here’s this year’s annual review with comments in ALL CAPS:

A non-pandemic world where people live without fear of contracting COVID-19.

A HARD-ROCK SOLID NO.

A less-friendly social and legal environment for those who help spread malicious propaganda and conspiracy theories.

A SOFT-ROCK SOLID NO.

A Summer Olympics that actually happens.

YES, BUT IT WASN’T THE SAME WITHOUT CROWDS.

Revelations and prosecutions of Trump administration / organization officials who broke laws.

YES ON THE REVELATIONS, NOT SO MUCH ON THE PROSECUTIONS (YET).

More time to read, more time to listen to podcasts.

THANKS TO AN ONGOING PANDEMIC, THIS WAS PROBABLY MORE TRUE THAN NOT.

An easy integration of administration and technology between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.  (A rare professional ask in this annual list.)

THEY DIDN’T EVEN BEGIN THIS YEAR.

A full return of college and professional sports.

THIS IS A QUALIFIED NO, GAMES WERE STILL POSTPONED AND CANCELED.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 18 consecutive playoff game losses.

NO, BECAUSE THEY'D HAVE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FIRST.

Less interaction with people who make every conversation about them.

YES, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS.

An awesome vacation.

DID MAKE A FUN TRIP TO SOCAL AND VEGAS IN SEPTEMBER.

For 2022, I want to experience this:

More mandates and life complications for the unvaxxed, making more of them get vaxxed.

Cryptocurrency regulations.

Prosecutions and convictions of Trump administration / organization officials who had roles in the 1/6/2021 insurrection.

A Winter Olympics that actually happens.

An executive order, at the least, to loosen federal rules on cannabis.

A top-tier Minnesota Vikings football team.

A loss of market cap and credibility for Facebook/Meta.

Me playing golf at a famous course / resort.

A decline in residential home buying.

A repeat from 2020 – me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I’ve never set foot.

Denying Math > Denying Science

Mostly due to a former wannabe fascist president, the U.S. is stuck in deep political divide, one that has morphed into a divide on practically every other socio-economic issue.

This politically-driven divide is at its dumbest over the COVID-19 vaccine.  While the pandemic has killed over 800,000 Americans, and the vaccine has killed none, the anti-vaxxer crowd cares more about going along with their like-minded group.  In short, they prefer to deny science in order to ‘own the libs’ by getting sick or dying. 

Every once in a while, though, the anti-vaxxer crowd wants to do more than deny science; they also want to deny math.  This is usually manifested by them pointing out that even vaccinated people are getting infected, then showing some kind of data where the infected vaccinated group percentage continues to increase.

It’s such a stupid, specious argument.

Let’s first establish that the vaccines are between 75%-90% efficacious.  None of the vaccine developers ever said they were curative (although the anti-vax crowd wants you to think that).  The vaccines are meant to reduce the number of infections, reduce their symptoms, and minimize deaths.

Then let's establish that while we don’t have nearly enough people vaxxed in this country or world, that number goes up every day.  As that number increases, and the number of unvaxxed people decreases, it is a mathematical certainty that there will be a higher percentage of vaxxed people who still contract COVID-19.  Taken to the limit, if everyone was vaccinated, then the percentage of vaxxed people who become infected will increase to 100%.

Meanwhile, this anti-vaxxer math-denial belies the fact that the percentage of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to increase for the unvaxxed population, regardless of what the vaxxed people do.

In the end, science and math facts aren’t going to matter to a cult-following group.  If you’re willing to believe someone who tells you the earth is flat, it’s likely you’ll also believe 2 + 2 doesn’t equal 4.

Thanks But No Thanks

In last year's annual list of things for which I am not thankful, I noted how it was never easier to come up with items in the year of a pandemic.  This year, we're still struggling to get back to normal, but with an extra dose of conspiracy cults mixed in.  So again I say, it's never been easier.....in random order: 

Insurrections and insurrectionists

Anti-vaxxers

Facebook executives

Voting restrictions

Paying more than the asking price

Mask mandate prohibitions

Meme investing

Science-deniers

History-ignorers

Math-idiots

Billionaires who don't pay income taxes

Supply chain network problems

Cryptocurrencies

Methane

Pandemic variants and waves