Monday, April 20, 2020

All Fo(u)r Twenty

Today is 4/20, making it a perfect time to again comment on the movement to decriminalize and expand the availability of cannabis in America.  You know, marijuana, the drug that is safer than alcohol but treated like cocaine.

We're up to ten states now that have legalized marijuana in some non-medical way.  Ten now, but what will it take to get to twenty and beyond?

Unfortunately, while the polls continue to show an increasing majority of Americans support marijuana legalization, the federal government and most states still don't allow it.  They don't even allow medical marijuana usage, which has an even larger majority of American support.

So, what gives?  Let's just use my home (red) state of Iowa as an example.  It has a Republican governor and legislature, so even though legalization is popular overall, it isn't so popular inside their conservative constituencies.  The Rs basically have a bend-but-don't-break attitude, where they act like they're doing something without actually doing anything.

For example, Iowa does some medical cannabis usage through a few approved dispensaries, but prescriptions can only be filled with minimal amounts of THC.  It's so little, in fact, Iowa isn't even considered a medical marijuana state.  This in spite of calls by doctors and pharmacists to increase the maximum THC dosage.

This is the worst, dumbest way to do things, because lots of effort produces zero positive results.  People / patients aren't getting better, and the state gets no tax revenue.  The fact that a neighboring state (Illinois) this year legalized cannabis just makes it even worse / dumber, since motivated Iowans simply drive across the border.  The result is, the people get what they want, but another state benefits from the commerce.

In the end, Iowa and other non-cannabis states would be better off financially just not allowing any marijuana usage, rather than limiting it the way they are.  Of course, if they legalized it, those states would see a multi-million dollar tax revenue bonanza -- but since the Rs don't want to look so bad politically, they do things one drip at a time, showcasing the insanity of their ways

One small irony in all of this is that Iowa does consider its dispensaries to be essential businesses, so they remain open during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Wouldn't it be nice if there was an effective, natural drug that could help everyone through the pandemic, not only physically but mentally?  And regulated selling of that same drug could create millions in tax revenue being lost by the state due to the same pandemic?

Maybe by next 4/20.

Saturday, April 4, 2020

Compliance Versus Defiance

In the midst of the enormous health crisis that is the coronavirus pandemic, it’s sad there is so much political fire being exchanged.  It’s actually necessary due to the disgraceful way the executive branch has denied the pandemic and mismanaged the response, but it’s still sad.

Not to pile on the sadness, but at the 30,000 foot level, there is a least one new political truth that has been brought into sharp focus.  That is, that Democrats have become the party of compliance, while Republicans have become the party of defiance.

It hasn’t been like this since, well, ever.  Democrats are supposed to be the liberal ones, fighting against the status quo.  Does anybody around here remember the battles (both real and figurative) of the 1960s and 1970s, not to mention the progressive, Medicare-for-all movements of the now?  And Republicans have always been the party of don’t-change conservatism, supposedly more obedient to the law.

The pandemic changed that.  When it came time to follow the advice of the medical experts, to take precautions, to stay home, to avoid people…..it was Democrats who were quick to comply.  Meanwhile, led by the misinformation of their chief executive and conservative media, the Republicans were slow to act.  They thought they were smarter than the experts, who weren’t going to tell them what to do.

Only three or so weeks into this thing, we know compliance saves lives, while defiance costs lives.  While it’s been awful to have watched this happening in real time, there may be one very small consolation – defiance is more likely to thin the herd of the defiant ones, at least for the future.

Friday, March 20, 2020

A Tale Of Two Viruses

As I write this, we are in the midst of a global pandemic, brought about by a novel virus with no existing vaccine or treatment.  This virus sickens virtually everyone who comes into contact with it.  It does not care about race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, financial class, political affiliation, or nationality.  It is not a hoax.  All of this has led to an economic meltdown of historic proportions, as worldwide people are asked to abide the directives of governments that cannot be trusted to provide proper information or materials.

Also as I write this, we are in the midst of a domestic crisis, brought about by a narcissistic virus with no existing vaccine or treatment.  This virus sickens virtually everyone who comes into contact with it.  It only cares if you are white, Christian, male, straight, upper class, Republican, and American.  It is a total hoax.  All of this has led to a political meltdown of historic proportions, as American citizens are asked to abide the directives of a government that cannot be trusted to provide proper information or materials.

The virus I refer to in the first paragraph is COVID-19.  The virus I refer to in the second paragraph is Donald Trump.

Let's hope one of these viruses overcomes the other as soon as possible.

Saturday, February 29, 2020

Opposite Day(s)

The coronavirus is spreading across the continents.  The stock market and interest rates are tanking.  This is a good time for some perspective (on the markets, not on the virus).....

When stocks decline sharply, the steady flow of negative news reports drives many people to flee the markets out of fear -- and miss out on potential gains as financial markets inevitably regain their strength over the next few months and years.

Right now, we're actually going through the third(!) stock market drop of 10% or more in the past 13 months.  The other times, as well as all of the other times before that, the markets recovered and went on to new highs.  Yet people are still fearful.

So how do you keep the fear from prevailing?

Simple.  Long-term investors should do the opposite of what they want to do.  That is, instead of watching the markets and reacting, they should ignore the markets and do nothing.

It's OK to not check your investment / 401k / 403b account balance when the market is falling.  It’s also OK to not watch or listen to financial news.  In fact, turning off the financial news is the smartest anyone can do if it keeps them from making mistakes based on emotional decisions.

The real contrarians will actually do something -- they'll buy into the falling markets, and of course, sell into the gaining ones.  They're the smart ones.

Be smart.  Be brave.  Be opposite.


Thursday, February 13, 2020

Caucus Of Death

Disaster.  Debacle.  Embarrassment.  Fiasco.

You may think I'm talking about the current presidential administration.  While those words definitely all fit that, I'm actually referring to another political item:  The 2020 Iowa Caucuses.

This isn't going to be a review of what went wrong. [Technology.]  Nor will it be a prediction about the future of Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential election year event.  [Terminal.]  It's to clarify something the national media doesn't cover:

Most Iowans do not give a damn about preserving their first-in-the-nation caucus status.

The only folks who really ever cared were / are mainly political activists and wonks, who constitute a very small percentage of the population.  I'll also throw in the hotel and restaurant industry and a few other small main street businesses, which enjoyed higher sales from all of the extra people roaming the state off and on for months.

Yay for the economic growth of a few, on a quadrennial basis.

So for anyone who thinks Iowans will be universally sad to see the caucuses abandoned, no worries!  We're actually looking forward to having fewer political commercials bombard us on both traditional and digital media platforms.  We're looking forward to having more elbow room at the Iowa State Fair.  We're looking forward to the calm.

The Iowa caucuses have always been a slightly goofy anachronism in the privacy-challenged digital age.  It may well be time for them to die.

In which case, not that many Iowans will be crying at the funeral.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

A Candidate Guide, Circa 2020

Next week, Iowa hosts its semi-famous political caucuses.  The attention this year is even more overwhelming than usual, thanks to a toxic political climate and social media.

It's time for my quadrennial assessment of the remaining candidates who are spending time in Iowa, this year limited to the Democratic Party since the Republican party is set on nominating the current ignorant, corrupt, and impeachable president.  In alphabetical order:

Joe Biden -- The safest, most moderate pick for the Dems.  A known commodity with the best chance of winning the electoral votes in the states that matter most.  He would be an more formidable candidate if he was several years younger.

Pete Buttigieg -- His moderate temperament and views, along with his military service, make him interesting.  A lack of political baggage is also a plus, but a lack of experience is a negative.  It's very surprising that he's made it this far.

Amy Klobuchar -- Another moderate whose views are reasonable and nationally appealing, and she has a neighboring state, midwestern likability to her.  However, that likability doesn't translate into passionate support for her candidacy.

Bernie Sanders -- He's been in this race before, so he knows the issues, has refined his message, and has the name recognition.  Has popularity with younger voters given his populist message, but that probably hurts more than helps in a national election.

Tom Steyer -- The 'attack Trump' strategy has appeal with some, but everyone knows he's just in it for issue advocacy and name recognition, right?

Elizabeth Warren -- The most intellectually appealing candidate, with a detailed plan for almost  everything.  Her energy and experience also help, but she limits her chances by being too far left on a few issues, namely college debt and health care.

Andrew Yang -- Doesn't seem there's any chance he'd win with no experience, but everyone should listen to what he's saying about the future of the U.S. workforce and economy.

Not mentioned is Mike Bloomberg, who isn't campaigning in Iowa but who could have an impact on the actual nominee, assuming it isn't him.

Monday, January 13, 2020

Less Brutal Vikings, A Short List

Two years ago I wrote about a rare thrilling playoff victory by the Minnesota Vikings.  This is a favorite professional team of mine for which I’ve documented many brutal losses over the years, but as I said then, I’d never bothered to come up with a list of big wins.

The Vikings just had another exciting playoff victory a week ago, so I decided it was time to come up with my list of the five greatest Vikings wins in history.  Let’s just say it wasn’t easy, because in the last 40 years, there aren’t that many.

1)  2018 NFC Divisional playoff game at home versus the New Orleans Saints.  This game is now known as the Minneapolis Miracle.

2) 2020 NFC Wild Card playoff game in OT at New Orleans Saints.  I know, the Saints again two years later.  An exciting, unexpected win, but it’s still small consolation for losing the 2010 NFC Championship game there in OT.

3) 1980 regular season game at home versus the Cleveland Browns.  The Vikings won on a two-play, 80-yard drive with a hitch-and-pitch, then a long Hail Mary TD pass to Ahmad Rashad on the last play of the game, clinching the division and a playoff spot.

4) 2004 Wild Card playoff game at the Green Bay Packers.  Memorable for beating their arch-rival in a road playoff game, but even more memorable when receiver Randy Moss caught a game-clinching TD pass, and then faked mooned the fans.

5) 1976 NFC Championship game at home versus the Los Angeles Rams.  As of now, it's the the last time the Vikings won a game to advance to the Super Bowl.  It was a great team, with great kick-blocking special teams, but one that would lose the Super Bowl to the Oakland Raiders 32-14.  And they haven’t been back since.