Iowa Election Handicapping 2014

We've got an open (non-incumbent) U.S. congressperson election going on in central Iowa, as well as an open U.S. senatorial seat and a gubernatorial race.  Time to opine on the candidates.

Congress:  Staci Appel (D) vs David Young (R)
When 'friend of John Boehner' and incumbent Tom Latham (R) unexpectedly retired to open this district seat, the major political parties were obviously unprepared.  How else do you explain these two poor candidates?  Appel is an uninspiring former state senator with an image problem, and Young is a boring, no-name protege of Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley.  Good lord, is it too late for me to start a write-in campaign?  I think Young wins this, because voters will prefer a boring nobody with some national political experience over a boring nobody with no such experience.

Senate:  Bruce Braley (D) vs Joni Ernst (R)
This race reminds me a lot of eight years ago, when then-Congressman Jim Nussle ran against state politician Chet Culver for governor of Iowa.  It should have been no contest -- Culver was a buffoon.  But the anti-Republican fervor was too much that year (George W. Bush was mismanaging Iraq and Afghanistan) and Nussle didn't try hard enough.  Culver won, and proved his buffoonery by being Iowa's worst-ever governor.  Here, Braley = Nussle, Ernst = Culver, and Obama = Bush.  Braley is the better candidate, but it isn't looking so good for him right now.  He needs to hope that Ernst -- a National Guard member but also someone who clearly isn't the sharpest tool in the shed -- makes another mistake to sway independents, like reminding people that Sarah Palin endorsed her.

Governor:  Jack Hatch (D) vs Terry Branstad (R)
Multi-decade governor and certified grumpy old man Branstad will win this easily.  Make no mistake, it won't be because he's so beloved, it'll be because Iowans would rather dance with the devil they know than with the devil they don't know.  Hatch isn't well-known outside of Des Moines, and frankly, he isn't that well known inside of Des Moines if you aren't a real estate developer.  I might vote for Hatch just as a silent protest to Branstad's stance on medicinal marijuana.