2023

I promised to be less optimistic in my last annual list of things I'd like to see happen next year.  For the most part, that turned out to be a good idea.  Let's review the 2021 list, with comments in ALL CAPS:

More mandates and life complications for the unvaxxed, making more of them get vaxxed.

I SUPPOSE MORE GOT VAXXED, BUT NOT FOR INVOLUNTARY REASONS

Cryptocurrency regulations.

CLOSE BUT DIDN'T HAPPEN, BUT IT'S A LOT MORE LIKELY NOW THAT BIGSHOTS LOST BIG MONEY IN THE BANKRUPTCY OF FTX.

Prosecutions and convictions of Trump administration / organization officials who had roles in the 1/6/2021 insurrection.

CALLING THIS A YES, BECAUSE ALTHOUGH IT DIDN'T HAPPEN YET FOR ADMIN FOLKS, IT DID FOR MANY OTHER INDIVIDUALS.

A Winter Olympics that actually happens.

CHECK.  BUT IT WAS SORTA BORING.

An executive order, at the least, to loosen federal rules on cannabis.

YES THIS DID HAPPEN, BUT IT'S ONLY A PYRRHIC VICTORY WITHOUT ACUTAL LEGISLATIVE ACTION.

A top-tier Minnesota Vikings football team.

12-3 AS I WRITE THIS, SO I GUESS IT'S A YES?

A loss of market cap and credibility for Facebook/Meta.

A GIANT YES.

Me playing golf at a famous course / resort.

NO.

A decline in residential home buying.

ANOTHER GIANT YES, THANKS TO HIGHER INTEREST RATES.

A repeat from 2020 – me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I’ve never set foot.

75% YES SINCE I GOT TO 3 OF THE 4.  ONLY ALASKA LEFT NOW.

Now for my new annual list of things I'd like to see happen next year.

A rising stock and bond market.

That Vladimir Putin is purged as a leader.  Any mysterious and/or violent way is acceptable.

Newly remodeled bathrooms in my house.

Me attending a major sporting event.

Elon Musk leaves Twitter, or I leave Twitter for another similar service.

Drought relief for the western U.S.

Me getting a golfing hole-in-one or eagle.

MAGA-death, and a crop of moderate presidential candidates for 2024 who aren't aged 70s or 80s.

More acceptance and usage of plant-based proteins.

FIFA Fo Fum Fake Fans Feign Fun

Once every four years, the FIFA World Cup is held.  This is a soccer (or as it's called in every other country, football) tournament that pits teams representing countries from every continent except Antarctica.  Let's just say, it's a very big deal outside of North America, and becoming a bigger deal there, too.

This is one of those contested years.  Normally it's held in June/July, but this year it's being held in November/December, to account for the fact it's being held in Qatar, one of the hottest places on earth in June/July.

[At this point, I could go on about how FIFA is an incredibly corrupt organization, and how it accepted bribes from Qatar (as it does from every host country) to agree to hold the World Cup there.  It's another sportswashing attempt by a place that openly discriminates against gays and females.  But I'm not actually going to go on about that.]

It's strange to see what happens to Americans during the World Cup.  While the vast majority will go four years without watching so much as a minute of soccer, many of those same folks suddenly take off work to watch the U.S. team play their World Cup games.

It doesn't matter that they don't know the name of a single player, much less the rules of the game.  What matters is making sure they are part of the crowd that suddenly cares about the national soccer team.  

Yes, there are avid year-round fans out there too -- tens of thousands of them -- thanks to the growth of U.S. soccer at the high school, college, and professional levels.  The most avid even traveled internationally to watch the games.

But that number still pales in comparison to the quadrennial jump-on-the-bandwagon group.  And to those people I say, like I did ten years ago in this very blog:  You are a Pretender.  You're the person who doesn't watch a baseball game all year (and I don't blame you, it's even more boring than soccer) but then becomes a huge World Series fan.

For the World Cup, that might make you feel patriotic, but that doesn't make you a fan.

Non-Thankfulness

Another Thanksgiving has arrived, full of leaf-less trees, colder weather, lots of already lit Christmas lights, and of course, my annual list of things for which I am not thankful:

The U.S. health care industrial complex

Attention-seeking billionaires

Election deniers

Multiple charging cords for electronic devices

Vehicle oil change reminder lights

Tik-Tok

Phone calls labeled ‘potential spam’ and ‘no caller ID’

Stores that don’t have an ‘email only’ receipt option

Rapidly rising interest rates

Vladimir Putin

Federal loan forgiveness of any kind without a community service requirement

Vikings playing football on Thanksgiving and messing up the day

Best Song Lyrics (Part XXIV)

It isn’t a good look for this ongoing series that I haven’t included the most successful (female) country artist of all-time – someone who also happens to be the sole writer of over 700 songs, including her own hits.

That person is Dolly Parton.  

Her decades-long career is even more remarkable than that, considering what she’s done outside of country music.  She’s become a national icon, from her movie acting credits, to her own Dollywood theme park, to the attention she’s recently received for her lifelong philanthropic efforts.

On the music side, she’s probably best known for one of her earliest efforts, Jolene.  From a strictly songwriting perspective, I Will Always Love You was her biggest hit, after it was remade as a pop ballad and popularized by Whitney Houston in the movie The Bodyguard. 

For purposes of this entry, let’s include her tremendous popular music crossover success.  Songs like Here You Come Again and 9 to 5 would be chart-toppers, but I think the best lyrics come from the song Two Doors Down.  Consider the variations of the refrain she uses in that song, moving from sad and lonely to happy and friendly:

Two doors down they're laughing and drinkin', and having a party

Two doors down they're not aware that I'm around

Cause here I am crying my heart out, feelin' sorry while

They're having a party just two doors down

I think I'll dry these useless tears and get myself together

I think I'll wonder down the hall and have a look around

'Cause I can't stay inside this lonely room and cry forever

I think I really rather join 'em two door down, yeah

Two doors down they're laughing and drinkin', and having a party

Two doors down they're not aware that I'm around

'Cause here I am no longer crying and feelin' sorry

We're having a party just two doors down

I can't believe I'm standing here dry-eyed, all smiles and talking

Making conversation with the new love I have found

I ask him if he's like to be alone and we start walking

Down the hall to my place waiting two doors down, yeah

Two doors down they're laughing and drinkin', and having a party

Two doors down we're not aware that they're around

'Cause here I am feelin' everything but sorry

We're having our own party two doors down

The Mountain West

I recently returned from a trip to one of the only areas of the continental U.S. where I'd never been.  I'd refer to it as the Mountain West, basically a corridor running from the Yellowstone National Park area south to the Arches National Park area.

So "What was it like" I'm assuming you ask?  Let's work our way from north to south, starting with NW Wyoming, which includes not only Yellowstone, but also the Grand Teton mountain range and the Jackson Hole area.

There's a lot to see in Yellowstone, because it's such a big park.  While I did see bison, elk, and even a moose (but no bears), for me the most interesting were the geysers and hot springs -- a big chunk of the park essentially sits on top of a volcano, so this encompasses much more than just the famous Old Faithful geyser.  You don't often get a chance to see or feel hot water bubbling out of the ground.  Of course, you'll also see lots of prairie, and rivers, and even river falls, but more than anything you just see trees.  Endless amounts of trees as you travel miles and miles from one attraction to another.  In that regard, much of Yellowstone can be very boring.

The Jackson Hole area, which includes the city of Jackson, would be what you get if you crossed a rural middle-class cowboy with an urban affluent multi-millionaire.  The cowboy types are there for hunting, fishing, and camping.  The millionaire types are there for skiing, golfing, and glamping.  There was generally a fun, laid-back vibe, but at the same time very expensive, and very crowded.

Driving south from there, you'll see vast stretches of irrigated Idaho farmland dedicated to growing potatoes, with some notable acres set aside for barley.  Who knew they grew so much barley in the potato capital of southern Idaho?

Now we're in Salt Lake City, which is actually a town of only a few hundred thousand people within a suburban metropolitan area of more than one million.  Its main features seemed to be Mormon headquarters buildings and temples, with the lake itself a distant second.  Having said that, I was surprised by how much diversity there was.  I figured I wouldn't see anything but conservative white people around, but that wasn't the case.  This may be because the east side of town is anchored by the University of Utah.

Finally, there was Arches National Park, which sits next to the tourist town of Moab, Utah.  (An aside, Moab was a much larger, much more hip version of the tourist town of West Yellowstone, Montana, which sits on the northwestern edge of Yellowstone National Park.)  As opposed to Yellowstone, Arches is a relatively small place, filled with natural sandstone monuments, some of which happen to be arches.  One after another they appear, on short drives between trailheads, where most people leave their vehicles to take pictures and/or walk up to a few miles to get a closer look.  Full disclosure, I found it to be a more interesting (and exhausting) place than Yellowstone.

That's my version of the Mountain West.  Epilogue:  After this trip, I've been to 48 out of the 50 United States.  Only North Dakota(!) and Alaska left. 

A Fair Comparison

For decades now, my family and I have been big fans of the Iowa State Fair.  This includes not just attending it (we usually attend more than one day), but also competing in it (usually in food / baking categories).  The sites, sounds, food, etc. continue to entertain us annually each August.

Meanwhile, we've always wanted to personally compare it to other well-known American state fairs.  The list of other fairs that would qualify is short, maybe only Minnesota and Texas come to mind.  I've always been a bit skeptical about Iowans' claims to having the greatest state fair, without having attended any others.

After many years of talking about it, I recently spent a day at the Minnesota State Fair in St. Paul.  So here, I now give you the definitive guide comparing the Iowa State Fair (ISF) with the Minnesota State Fair (MSF).

Size

MSF is larger, both in terms of grounds area and attendance -- daily and overall attendance is roughly double the size of ISF.  A big plus for MSF was the flatness of their grounds, whereas about half of the ISF is on the side of a hill.  Parking can be an issue at both places, although both have park and ride options along with side street parking (both more expensive at MSF).  Advantage MSF.

Midway

Very similar.  Both fairs have midway rides, including separate areas for children.  Both have thrill ride areas.  Both have giant slides.  Both have sky glides.  Both have Ye Olde Mills!  MSF had what looked like a permanent, very large Ferris wheel structure, as well as a tower up which one could ride in a rotating, external compartment and see the fairgrounds.  Advantage MSF.

Grandstand

Again, very similar.  They also attract basically the same national concert tours.  Advantage no one.

Livestock exhibits

MSF has the usual cattle / swine / horse facilities, but the livestock area at ISF is larger, maybe by half.  This is part of an overall trend of the ISF being much, much more focused on farming and agriculture.  A related example would be that MSF had no area devoted to farm equipment displays, while ISF has a huge area for that.  Also, there were no pork or beef producer food tents at MSF, but there was a turkey federation tent.  Advantage ISF.

Agricultural / food exhibits

ISF is much more robust in terms of competing / displaying vegetables and horticulture.  One notable exception is honey / honey production, where MSF devoted more space.  ISF also appeared to have more had a greater number and variety of food competitions / displays.  Advantage ISF.

Cultural exhibits

There wasn't much difference in how much, but there were differences in how.  For instance, MSF showed more painted art, but little photography, which is the inverse of ISF.  Also, MSF had cultural displays in more buildings, where ISF basically sticks to a single building, maybe two.  Advantage no one.

Food and beverage

Basically, you can get any deep fat fried thing you might want at either fair.  Both also have buildings devoted to selling chocolate chip cookies in a bucket.  While ISF has pork chops on a stick, MSF has walleye on a stick.  (Curiously, there seemed to be no one selling pork tenderloins at MSF, which are a veritable staple at ISF.)  ISF does have a much, much larger craft beer tent, which is probably due to Iowa's encouraging craft beer laws.  Another oddity:  MSF has a lot of vendors still only accepting cash as a form of payment.  Advantage ISF.

Free stages / entertainment

Both have numerous free stages / amphitheaters for thrill shows and music.  While the ISF tends to have more shows and limit the live music until the evening, MSF had live music starting by noon.  Conversely, MSF holds its statewide talent competition in the evening, while ISF presents theirs during the day.  Advantage no one.

Environment

A big trade-off here.  The ISF is cleaner, partially due to golf carts and other small 4-wheeled vehicles moving supplies and collecting trash all day, making for traffic which visitors have to constantly dodge.  At MSF, you rarely see any motorized vehicles, but you also tend to see more trash receptacles and a bit more uncollected trash on the grounds.  (I later learned that MSF has both external and underground avenues with which to transport supplies and trash -- do not know if this is true.)  Advantage no one.

Rest rooms

Need a separate paragraph for this.  MSF had at least four separate, huge, clean, restroom only buildings on the grounds, to go with other one-off facilities.  Since they have many more people on the grounds on any given day, maybe this is more of a necessity, but it was still nice.  Advantage MSF.

Conclusion

MSF is more diverse, both in the people attending and the things to do.  ISF is more focused on farming and competitions.  Both the ISF and MSF are wonderful state celebrations that I would recommend attending multiple times.  No one could reasonably say one was 'better' than the other, so don't believe anyone who does.

Fame, Fortune, And Sportswashing

As a golfer, I’ve been following the newly formed LIV golf tour / organization with great interest.  It’s funded by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is a fancy way of saying it’s funded by the Saudi Arabian government.

LIV (which supposedly comes from the Roman numeral for 54, the score a golfer would likely have if they birdied every hole in a round of golf) bills itself as a rival to the PGA tour / organization.  It’s been recruiting golfers to play in its limited events, in some cases paying them huge up-front money – even offering 9-figure amounts to the biggest names.

The term some are using to describe LIV is ‘sportswashing’, meaning this a way for the Saudis to cover-up their awful record on human rights.  It’s the same thing China has done recently by hosting the Olympics.  Market the country through sports, in a way that obscures how that country oppresses people.

I get the money is enticing for these golfers, even life-changing for some of them.  The PGA has always operated in a way that makes the players independent contractors, there’s nothing keeping them there.

I also get and agree that organizational competition is a good thing, and LIV has already made the PGA make changes for the better to its structure.  

Regardless of whether you call it sportswashing, I would not support LIV.  But more importantly, why do some of these players?  Why would the already famous, wealthy pro golfers choose to associate themselves with a regime like this?

They might make a greater fortune, but they'll lose their fame.  Everyone considers the LIV the minor leagues right now, with no top-20 golfers signed, and not many from even the top-100 are expected to sign.  LIV players will miss out on some major championships, and the biennial Ryder Cup.  Also, the LIV tour has no major television coverage, so no one is going to see or care about these players anymore.

That’s particularly true for the legendary ones, like my now former favorite golfer Phil Mickelson.  He says publicly he’s just trying to ‘grow the game’ by endorsing LIV (and taking a 9-figure sum) but all he’s doing is tarnishing his image.  At age 50+, he isn’t going to be much of a threat to win again anyway, even on the watered-down LIV tour.

It all sucks for golf fans, too, who want to see the best play against the best.  In terms of competition, this whole thing reminds me of Indy-car racing in the mid-90s, which split into two groups and completely watered down that sport for years.  It made even the Indianapolis 500 unwatchable.

In summary, I’d say that competition is a good thing, but not all competitors are good, and this is one of those cases.  If you want to align yourself with a new competitor, maybe make sure they don’t represent some of the worst people in the world.

Show Me Your Homework

The COVID-19 pandemic drove many white-collar industries to allow employees to work from their homes.  Two years later, most of those employees continue to work from out of the office on at least a part-time basis.

This ‘work from anywhere’ economy has made employers and employees consider whether productivity is as high now as it was back when most commuted to and worked from an office.  More often than not, the answer is different depending on your point of view.

Almost without exception, I hear employees say they are as productive.  They say that’s because they work more hours due to no commuting, or they aren’t distracted by water cooler conversations, or they are simply able to work outside of the normal 8am-5pm workday.

But the employer answer, and I think the correct one, is that there’s no way workers are as productive working from anywhere as they are working from the office.  Just the lack of peer supervision and accountability is enough for one to realize there isn’t as much getting done, nor getting done as quickly.

I’ve worked in large offices, small offices, and from home.  While I like to think I’m wired in a way that it made no difference, I generally got more done in less time by working in an office environment.  Sure I worked more hours, but that’s because I wasn’t as efficient in what I needed to get done.  And while the office has its distractions, everywhere else has as many, or more.

Employees want employers to think they’re as productive, because they want to keep their newfound flexibility to basically work when they want.  They’ve convinced themselves they somehow work harder and smarter outside of the office, by saying they do.  They're basically lying to themselves.

It's great that we've evolved into a hybrid work environment society; I'm all for it.  It's better for families, and better for overall life balance in general.  Just don't tell me as much is getting accomplished.

A Tale Of Two Ceremonies

On a fairly regular basis these days, we hear about some new attempt at breaking a Guinness World Record.  It's typically something very odd and not at all useful, like the world's largest popcorn ball or the world's largest group hug.

With that in mind, I would now like to submit setting a new useless record earlier this month:  The first ever invited, attending guest at a gay wedding, a catholic priest ordination, and an interracial wedding, all within the span of seven days in the state of Iowa.  I have no proof, but I defy anyone to tell me it's been done before.

But this blog entry isn't going to be about setting records.  It's going to be about the gay wedding and the religious ordination, and the wild juxtaposition of those two events.

I don't want to spend the time or words to describe everything I saw and/or experienced at these occasions.  Instead, I'm going to break it down like this.....

Within a week's time, I attended two ceremonies.  I'd describe one of those ceremonies as joyful, colorful, and spontaneous.  The other I'd describe as subdued, dark, and ritualistic.

One of the ceremonies promoted working together as equals to create a better life.  The other ceremony literally called for the obedience of one party to another.

One of the ceremonies was a manifestation of newer civil rights in America.  The other ceremony went out of its way to applaud the recent elimination of long-standing civil rights.

One of the ceremonies seemed like it was the start of a relationship with unlimited growth potential.  The other ceremony seemed like it was the start of a relationship destined to shrink in size and value.

And ultimately, one of the ceremonies was completely non-judgmental, while the other ceremony judged the first to be depraved and worthy of being banned.

Notice that I haven't identified which event I believed them to be.  Which do you think was which?

Don't get me wrong, I care for the people involved in all of these ceremonies, including the aforementioned interracial marriage.  The (young) participants chose to make an open public expression of their love for someone or something else, and I was among hundreds or family members and friends there to unconditionally support them.

That said, I've never experienced a greater feeling of dissonance than I did during those seven days.

Dear Graduating Class of 2022

After two years of restrictions, it seems we re-emerged to a more normal time of high school and college graduation ceremonies.  So without further adieu, time for my annual address:

To the graduating class of 2022,

So, did it seem normal?  Your senior year, I mean.

The last two graduating classes had their senior years ruined, or at least interrupted, by a pandemic.  Yours was more like the pre-pandemic days, with the possible exception of having to wear a piece of cloth over your face from time-to-time. (But curiously, not when you were jammed together at extra-curricular school activities.)

If it did seem normal, I hope you enjoyed it, because if you're doing it right, that should be the end of your 'normal' for a very long time.  You'll either be going to a different school or starting a job.  Either way, the salad days of letting your family take care of you are over.

I had to say should be over, because these days, a great many of you will still be living with your family.  I'm well aware of the reasons why -- too many expenses, not enough income, blah blah blah.  These are things you could have mitigated with a little planning and grit.  And perhaps one more thing.....a better job by your family.

Yep, if you aren't ready to graduate, I want to say that's all on you, but I can't do that anymore.  There are too many complicit parents / families who are more than willing to let you stay at home for as long as you want, with virtually no accountability from you.  It's beyond weird that this happens, but it's almost become routine, and the pandemic made it even worse.

So you're probably asking, why should I make life hard on myself when I can live at home with free room and board and car and laundry service and probably much more?

I have one good answer -- because you're missing out on the prime fun years of your life!  That bulletproof age that exists around your early twenties, when you're young and can be both responsible and irresponsible at the same time.  You aren't going to get the most out of that by living at home.

Go to college.  Get a job.  Find roommates, or for that matter, just a mate.  But for the love of god, don't let your family allow you to stay in the same house where you grew up.

Don't let that be your normal.

The Real Killers

The United States of America just suffered another mass shooting of elementary school children, this time in Texas.   I wrote about the last one(!) in 2012, and I basically predicted this one a week later.

If it isn’t already obvious, nothing has changed in the last 10 years.  I take that back, something has changed – it’s even easier now to buy guns, especially assault-style weapons. 

The gutless politicians governing our gun-crazy culture love their power too much to do anything about mass shootings.  These Republicans – and let's call a spade a spade, that’s who they are – accept millions of dollars from the gun lobby to retain their legislative ‘jobs’ in return for making it easy in this country to buy plentiful guns and ammunition.

These pathetic grifters love money and power more than the safety of the citizenry.  As cover, they try to blame mass shootings on everything else but guns.  Then after some time goes by, they try to water down our gun laws even more, as directed by their gun-lobby (Read: NRA) overlords.

It's hard to think how much less safer our gun laws can be when an 18 year-old in Texas can buy assault weapons without a comprehensive background check or waiting period.  How hard is it to correlate that with the fact the United States is the only nation in the world where mass shootings regularly happen?

In a way, the gun lobby has had it right all along.  Guns don't kill people, people kill people -- especially if they're a politician with an R behind their name.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2022

After a three-year, Covid-19-related hiatus from in-person shareholder meetings, we die-hard Berkshire Hathaway meeting attendees met in Omaha for Woodstock For Capitalists.

There were few changes from the last gathering in 2019.  Most importantly, the great Warren Buffett (age 91) and Charlie Munger (age 98) were again sitting on a stage answering questions for about five hours.  Vice-Chairs Greg Abel (future CEO) and Ajit Jain were also on stage to answer questions in the morning session.

Buffett seemed particularly in a mood to talk, as there were far fewer questions than in past years -- he even joked about it after the lunch break, noting they'd only answered seven questions in the morning session, apparently because someone (him) talked a lot.

My summary of the environment and some of what was said:

• A smaller crowd than in the past, probably due to the pandemic and people getting used to watching the live stream of the meeting.  Also, there was more room to roam in the convention area, things were more spread out.

• These guys hate the way so many approach stock market investing.  They treat it like a 'gambling parlor' now that securities prices frequently are unattached to fundamentals. Munger in particular brought up Robinhood (investment platform) and how people are now paying dearly for leveraging their money and on their misplaced faith in it.

• As much as these guys hate the stock market casino action, they REALLY hate cryptocurrency, which they believe is bad for stable currency economies and will be worthless one day.  Buffett made the same comment about it that he used for gold investors years ago, which is why invest in a non-producing asset that's only value is what another is willing to pay for it.

• On cryptocurrency, here's Munger's exact quote: "Well, in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else. And bitcoin does all three. In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s very likely to go to zero.  In the second place, it’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve system and the national currency system, which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and company on.  And third, it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China, and with all of our presumed advantages of civilization -- we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China."

• Upon answering a question about investing during inflation like we have now, Buffett said the best investment anyone can make is to invest in themselves.  Make yourself an expert at what you like to do -- if you're one of the best, people will pay you regardless, and you will do well.

• Also on inflation.....Buffett mentioned there was about $800 billion of Federal Reserve cash in circulation 10 or 15 years ago, and now there’s something like $2.2 trillion of currency in circulation.  That’s about $7,000 per person, every man, woman, and child in the U.S., a lot of which has come from the stimulus programs due to the pandemic.  He said it's no wonder we have inflation now -- but we probably had to do what we did.

Of  course, there was so much more.  Below is a link to this meeting and others.

https://buffett.cnbc.com/annual-meetings/

Dear Lord Baby Jesus

 A new NASCAR (stock car racing) season began about a month ago.  This is something I generally don't care about, along with IndyCar or Formula 1 or any other auto racing.  Just not my thing.

However, it did remind me of one of my all-time favorite movies, Talladega Nights: The Legend of Ricky Bobby.  It includes one of my all-time favorite movie scenes, with Ricky Bobby's family and best friend Cal gathered around a table to eat.  It goes on for a long time, ranging from saying grace to children verbally ridiculing adults.

That doesn't sound funny, but it is. Here's just the script for the saying grace part.....

Carley: Supper's ready! Come on, y'all!  I've been slaving over this for hours!

Ricky Bobby (RB): Dear Lord baby Jesus...or as our brothers to the south call you, Jesus...we thank you so much for this bountiful harvest of Domino's, KFC...and the always delicious Taco Bell.  I just want to take time to say thank you for my family...my two beautiful, beautiful, handsome, striking sons...Walker and Texas Ranger...or T.R., as we call him...and of course, my red-hot smoking wife, Carley...who is a stone-cold fox.  Also wanna thank you for my best friend, Cal Naughton Jr...who's got my back no matter what.

RB and Cal: Shake and Bake.

RB: Dear Lord baby Jesus, we also thank you for my wife's father, Chip. We hope that you can use your baby Jesus powers...to heal him and his horrible leg. And it smells terrible and the dogs are always bothering with it. Dear tiny infant Jesus, we...

Carley: Hey, you know, sweetie...Jesus did grow up. You don't always have to call him "baby." It's odd and off-putting to pray to a baby.

RB: Well, I like the Christmas Jesus best and I'm saying grace. When you say grace, say it to grownup Jesus, teenage Jesus...bearded Jesus, whoever you want.

Carley: You know what I want? I want you to do this grace good, so that God will let us win tomorrow.

RB: Dear tiny Jesus...in your golden-fleece diapers, with your tiny, little, fat, balled-up fists...pawing at the air...

Chip: He was a man. He had a beard.

RB: Look, I like the baby version the best, do you hear me? I win the races and I get the money.

Carley: Ricky, finish the damn grace.

Cal: I like to picture Jesus in a tuxedo T-shirt...because it says, like, "I wanna be formal...but I'm here to party too." Because I like to party, so I like my Jesus to party. I like to picture Jesus as a ninja fighting off evil samurai. I like to think of Jesus, like, with giant eagle's wings. And singing lead vocals for Lynyrd Skynyrd...with, like, a angel band. And I'm in the front row, and I'm hammered drunk.

Carley: Hey, Cal? Why don't you just shut up?

Cal: Yes, ma'am.

RB: Dear 8-pound, 6-ounce, newborn infant Jesus...don't even know a word yet...just a little infant and so cuddly, but still omnipotent...we just thank you for all the races I've won and the 21.2 million dollars...

Carley: Love that money!

RB: …that I have accrued over this past season. Also, due to a binding endorsement contract...that stipulates I mention Powerade at each grace...I just wanna say that Powerade is delicious...and it cools you off on a hot summer day. And we look forward to Powerade's release of Mystic Mountain Blueberry.  Thank you for all your power and your grace, dear baby God. Amen.

All: Amen.

Cal: That was a hell of a grace, man.

Walker: You nailed that like a split hog!

RB: I'm not gonna lie to you, it felt good.

Texas Ranger: Dad, you made that grace your bitch.

Predicting Predictions

People like to make predictions, and thanks to our social media obsessed culture, there's no lack of trolls individuals willing to publicly express their predictions about matters both silly and important.

Most of these predictions deserve to be ignored of course.  They're just opinions, probably ones that no one asked for.  A better reason to ignore them, however, is the predictor probably isn't educated on the topic, much less an expert on it.

The COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse, as millions of people became epidemiology experts overnight, and consequently made a lot of (wrong) predictions about what would happen.  Lately, millions more have become experts on Ukraine, Russia, and war atrocities, and they will almost certainly be wrong on their predictions about that conflict.

Meanwhile, the unsolicited, ignorant predictions keep coming, thanks to the shamelessness of the individuals and companies who profit from the clicks they generate on the internet.  They don't care about the accuracy of their predictions, even though they know a lot of them will be provably wrong thanks to the forever nature of social media and videotape.

So if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, right?  Here are a few general predictions I want to make about the future that I believe will become fact:

• There will be unexpected news. Some of it will be good.  Some of it will be bad.

• Some countries / companies will strengthen in the next year. Others will weaken. These will change from year to year.

• A new book will say the rules no longer work and everything has changed.  Another new book will say nothing has really changed and the old rules still apply.
  

• Media 'pundits' and 'influencers' who are not subject matter experts will ignore that and still tell us what they think about those subjects.

You Make Me Sick

After two years of pandemic living, following generally accepted guidelines for social distancing, and getting vaccinated, COVID-19 finally broke through my defenses earlier this month.  I tested positive, my diagnostic confirmation arriving without fanfare via text from a lab.

I haven't had the flu for over 20 years (yes, I've been counting), and I'm vaccinated and boosted against COVID-19, so I expected mild symptoms, and a return to feeling normal within a few days.  Regrettably, it wasn't that simple.

While I did have mild symptoms, I had every single one of them, including congestion, cough, low-grade fever, and fatigue.  Let's just say the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.

I'm left to wonder what it would have been like without being vaccinated.  No doubt worse, maybe not hospital-worthy, but who knows?  I'm in reasonably good shape for my age, not overweight, no hypertension or other comorbidities, and COVID-19 sucked.  More than a week later I still have a very minor cough with congestion, and my energy isn't entirely back.

Now, however, I mainly feel resentment, specifically towards the unvaccinated.

I realize everyone reacts differently to COVID-19.  I also realize that unvaccinated people over 50 with other health concerns have a much higher probability of being hospitalized with it and dying from it.  Yet most of them aren’t taking even the simplest precautions.

They are taking unnecessary and uncompensated risks.  Unfortunately, some of that risk is transferred to vaccinated folks like me.  Without them as science-denying hosts, COVID-19 would have nowhere to go, and there would be no variants to keep attacking everyone else.

If they’d get a couple of free shots and show some concern for others, I probably wouldn’t have gotten sick.  What’s not to resent about that?

My wish for them is that one day, COVID-19 holds them accountable in a way that doesn't affect those in the vaccinated world.

In Support Of The Half-Birthday

I'm writing this entry on my half-birthday.  It's six months from my last birthday, and six months to my next birthday.  The question is, do half-birthdays mean anything?

I never used to think so.  Growing up with an August birth month, I never had a school day where others might have recognized even my regular birthday.  It was kind of a bummer when you were youngster, watching everybody else get attention on their birthday that you never got.

Things are a bit different now.  Back then no one celebrated half-birthdays in schools like some elementary classes do now, which is a very nice thing for us summer birthday people.

Also, as I've aged I've paid more attention to half-birthdays, at least my own.  We only have a certain number of trips around the sun, and nowadays I kind of like to mark the halfway point for some perspective on how things are going.

Also, there's at least one half-birthday that's somewhat consequential in America.  That's when a person reach age 59.5, which makes them eligible for penalty-free withdrawals from most retirement accounts.  It's not much, but for people thinking about retiring, it's something.

So let's give it up for the half-birthday.  Why celebrate only once in 365 days when it can be done twice?

Key To The Keys

I recently returned from a trip to Key West, Florida.  It's long been a domestic 'final frontier' of mine, one of the few places I've always wanted to visit, but never have.

Here are my observations:

• While not that far in distance, the drive from Miami to Key West takes 3-4 hours since you're going through several other island keys and resort areas.  It was interesting to see everything, and even stop for food and beverages -- but I wouldn't care to do it again as opposed to flying.

• Viewing the sunset is a big deal at Key West, and hundreds gather each evening for just that activity.  At Mallory Square, the sunset is accompanied by several street performers to pass the time.  For those willing and able, there are lots of sunset cruises on the water available.

• The main tourist hub is Duval Street.  It's a two-mile long stretch of nothing but big bars (some famous, like Ernest Hemingway's old hangout, Sloppy Joes) and restaurants and touristy shops on both sides.  It's amenable to not only walkers but also those on bicycles and scooters.  It was a longer, slightly more family-friendly version of Bourbon Street in New Orleans.

• The Key West Historic Seaport is another tourist hotspot.  There were at least three large restaurants with outdoor seating from where you can watch fishing boats and yachts moving in and out (or cruise on one yourself).  Jimmy Buffett's Key West recording studio is there as well.

• I was expecting more of an island vibe to Key West, kind of laid back with Jimmy Buffett music emanating from every corner.  Turns out it had much more of a classic rock, crossover-county vibe, with a big blue-collar crowd to go along with the affluent tourists, at least after the sun went down.

• Speaking of music.....there was a lot of live music.  It started in the morning at the resorts and a few bars, and it was almost everywhere at night.  It was practically a necessity for a bar to have live music to draw patrons in from the street.

In summary, I'd say if New Orleans mated with Cape Cod, the offspring would end up to be something like Key West.