2022

Last year I implied that 2020 was the worst year of everyone's lifetime, you know, pandemic and all.  This year started with the promise that COVID-19 vaccines would make 2021 relatively normal.  I should have known better.

With that in mind, I’ll try to be less optimistic on my annual list of things I’d like to see happen next year.  But first, here’s this year’s annual review with comments in ALL CAPS:

A non-pandemic world where people live without fear of contracting COVID-19.

A HARD-ROCK SOLID NO.

A less-friendly social and legal environment for those who help spread malicious propaganda and conspiracy theories.

A SOFT-ROCK SOLID NO.

A Summer Olympics that actually happens.

YES, BUT IT WASN’T THE SAME WITHOUT CROWDS.

Revelations and prosecutions of Trump administration / organization officials who broke laws.

YES ON THE REVELATIONS, NOT SO MUCH ON THE PROSECUTIONS (YET).

More time to read, more time to listen to podcasts.

THANKS TO AN ONGOING PANDEMIC, THIS WAS PROBABLY MORE TRUE THAN NOT.

An easy integration of administration and technology between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.  (A rare professional ask in this annual list.)

THEY DIDN’T EVEN BEGIN THIS YEAR.

A full return of college and professional sports.

THIS IS A QUALIFIED NO, GAMES WERE STILL POSTPONED AND CANCELED.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 18 consecutive playoff game losses.

NO, BECAUSE THEY'D HAVE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FIRST.

Less interaction with people who make every conversation about them.

YES, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS.

An awesome vacation.

DID MAKE A FUN TRIP TO SOCAL AND VEGAS IN SEPTEMBER.

For 2022, I want to experience this:

More mandates and life complications for the unvaxxed, making more of them get vaxxed.

Cryptocurrency regulations.

Prosecutions and convictions of Trump administration / organization officials who had roles in the 1/6/2021 insurrection.

A Winter Olympics that actually happens.

An executive order, at the least, to loosen federal rules on cannabis.

A top-tier Minnesota Vikings football team.

A loss of market cap and credibility for Facebook/Meta.

Me playing golf at a famous course / resort.

A decline in residential home buying.

A repeat from 2020 – me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I’ve never set foot.

Denying Math > Denying Science

Mostly due to a former wannabe fascist president, the U.S. is stuck in deep political divide, one that has morphed into a divide on practically every other socio-economic issue.

This politically-driven divide is at its dumbest over the COVID-19 vaccine.  While the pandemic has killed over 800,000 Americans, and the vaccine has killed none, the anti-vaxxer crowd cares more about going along with their like-minded group.  In short, they prefer to deny science in order to ‘own the libs’ by getting sick or dying. 

Every once in a while, though, the anti-vaxxer crowd wants to do more than deny science; they also want to deny math.  This is usually manifested by them pointing out that even vaccinated people are getting infected, then showing some kind of data where the infected vaccinated group percentage continues to increase.

It’s such a stupid, specious argument.

Let’s first establish that the vaccines are between 75%-90% efficacious.  None of the vaccine developers ever said they were curative (although the anti-vax crowd wants you to think that).  The vaccines are meant to reduce the number of infections, reduce their symptoms, and minimize deaths.

Then let's establish that while we don’t have nearly enough people vaxxed in this country or world, that number goes up every day.  As that number increases, and the number of unvaxxed people decreases, it is a mathematical certainty that there will be a higher percentage of vaxxed people who still contract COVID-19.  Taken to the limit, if everyone was vaccinated, then the percentage of vaxxed people who become infected will increase to 100%.

Meanwhile, this anti-vaxxer math-denial belies the fact that the percentage of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to increase for the unvaxxed population, regardless of what the vaxxed people do.

In the end, science and math facts aren’t going to matter to a cult-following group.  If you’re willing to believe someone who tells you the earth is flat, it’s likely you’ll also believe 2 + 2 doesn’t equal 4.

Thanks But No Thanks

In last year's annual list of things for which I am not thankful, I noted how it was never easier to come up with items in the year of a pandemic.  This year, we're still struggling to get back to normal, but with an extra dose of conspiracy cults mixed in.  So again I say, it's never been easier.....in random order: 

Insurrections and insurrectionists

Anti-vaxxers

Facebook executives

Voting restrictions

Paying more than the asking price

Mask mandate prohibitions

Meme investing

Science-deniers

History-ignorers

Math-idiots

Billionaires who don't pay income taxes

Supply chain network problems

Cryptocurrencies

Methane

Pandemic variants and waves

Winning At Betting Without Gambling

In the past two years, some states have legalized sports gambling via apps, which use GPS technology to confirm the device being used is in that state.  I don't have any particular expertise to pass along about sports gambling, but I have plenty to say about how easy it can be for people to make money by simply downloading the apps, without really putting any money at risk.

All of these gambling apps need to acquire customers to be profitable.  For that reason, they all offer specials for new users.  These specials are usually given as an easy one dollar bet at 100-1 odds (ensuring a $100 win), or some form of gambling credit.

The 'free bet' credit is the most typical form or credit, meaning it must be used on one or more wagers.  It's often capped to equal the amount of initial funding up to a certain level.  But it isn't that hard to turn this 'free bet into 'free money' though conservative wagering.  For example, if you have $500 of free bets at $25 per free bet, just find a game with a wager close to even odds, and bet on both sides.  At a minimum, you'll make $200.)

So, here's my quick-step guide on how you (and perhaps a spouse) can make hundreds of dollars while sitting on your couch with a smartphone:

• Download the apps.

• Electronically fund them, preferably to the max amount of free bets allowed.

• Make your easy one dollar bet, or over time, make your free bets, leaving the amount you funded untouched.

• Cash out your original deposit and winnings!

So why aren't more people doing this?  I don't know.  Maybe people are afraid of technology.  Maybe they're afraid of getting addicted to gambling, losing what they initially funded plus a lot more.

Or maybe they just aren't good at calculating the return of making hundreds of dollars for a couple of hours of work.

Best Song Lyrics (Part XXIII)

I've been blogging about what I consider to be the 'best' song lyrics for over ten years now, and I admit it shows my biases.  I've already admitted I don't have enough country songwriters in my entries, and I certainly don't have enough female or minority representation on it either.

I'm going to help rectify that, at least a little bit, by highlighting Alicia Keys.  While their are many other famous black female artists that came before her, like Aretha Franklin or Tina Turner, they and many others are more famous as performers.

Keys is known as much for her songwriting as her singing.  She's either solo wrote or helped to write lots of songs made famous not only by her, but by many other artists.  And to top it off, she's prolific at playing instruments as well, notably the piano.

For my example, let's go with a big hit song she solo wrote and performed, If I Ain't Got You.  In this case, the words don't do justice to the incredible vocal range in her performance:

Some people search for a fountain

Promises forever young

Some people need three dozen roses

And that's the only way to prove you love them

Hand me the world on a silver platter

And what good would it be

With no one to share

With no one who truly cares for me

Some people want it all

But I don't want nothing at all

If it ain't you, baby

If I ain't got you

Some people want diamond rings

Some just want everything

But everything means nothing

If I ain't got you

It Never Rains In Southern California

After a one-year hiatus caused by COVID-19, I just returned from a Fall excursion to some part of the country where I've never been.  This year, it was to the San Diego / La Jolla region of southern California.  My observations:

• It might have simply been coincidence, but the weather was fantastic.  It was in the upper 70s daily, with a cloudless sky.  The sun felt warm, but was offset by the light, cool Pacific Ocean breeze.  It was the stereotypical 'San Diego' weather that makes one wonder why they don't move there permanently.

• Took the high, arcing bridge from San Diego to Coronado Island, which is mostly known for its naval air station and for the Hotel del Coronado of movie fame.  The island is small, and an hour-long bike ride can get you around the entire inhabited area.  It's basically a tourist trap, with a nicely-kept beach.  The hotel itself is a major draw -- a massive, old structure with lots of friendly folks willing to sell expensive items to both guests and non-guests.

• La Jolla itself is a trendy, knob-shaped area with beautiful ocean views.  It's also an expensive place to live -- the median price of a modest residence there was around $2.5 million.  It's also not an exaggeration to say the majority of cars I saw there were luxury models.  There were lots of open-air eating and drinking establishments, most of which had that chill, wine-drinking type of vibe.

• About 10-15 miles north of San Diego, the Torrey Pines area has plenty of trails to walk and sights to see.  Most will stop at the ‘gliderport’ on the cliffs above the Pacific to watch paragliders swoop up and down, and back and forth along the coastline.  It's an awesome sight for those who've never seen it in person.  Many may have seen the gliders on TV during telecasts of professional golf tournaments at nearby Torrey Pines Golf Course, a gorgeous public venue and also a great place for lunch.

• Speaking of cars, the per capita ratio of Tesla models in the San Diego area was stunning.  They were everywhere.  I presume it's a combination of high gasoline prices ($4.50 per gallon was the average) and the feeling of exclusivity one might crave living in SoCal.

One COVID-related item was that California has an indoor mask mandate, and people were very compliant, as you might expect from any area that relies on tourists.  Contrast that with Iowa / the Midwest where I live, where wearing masks isn't encouraged much less required.  The result is that while the Midwest has always considered itself a safer place to live, right now from a pandemic perspective, it's clearly safer to live in California.

Gone Days Of Summer

August has long been considered the primary vacation month of the year in America, especially for those with children at home.  It's the one warm-weather month in which structured summer activities for kids are generally over, but school hasn't yet started (for most).

It seems to me that this year, the second August of the COVID-19 pandemic era has resulted in more time off for more people than ever before.  I'll take it one step further and say it seems a lot of folks simply decided to take the entire month off from their normal work schedules -- whatever that means these days.

My perception is based on an unofficial tally of certain random things being at an all-time high:

• People needlessly bragging about their August vacations on social media.

• Number of 'out of the office' responses I get to work calls and emails.

• No production of otherwise live TV shows, and/or vacationing TV personalities.  (Some of this comes from the Summer Olympics, which generated hundreds / thousands of hours of new content, and kept other channels re-running old material.)

Yes, a lot of people missed out on their summer vacations last year, and that wasn't going to happen this year.  They also probably wanted to compensate for the time and money saved during their stay-cation last year.

But I also get the feeling that the pandemic has changed things to a more European-style, don't-work-too-hard-in-the-summer here.  With people 'working' from anywhere, they have more latitude about when, where, and how they work.

Maybe, just maybe, we have a new summer way of doing things, one I wish we'd had when I was younger.

Full disclosure:  When it comes to this blog, I also took August off!

Wasted Days And Wasted Nights

[Blog title courtesy of the late American Tejano country music crooner Freddy Fender.]

I've never been much of a county music fan.  I didn't grow up listening to it, except for your occasional crossover country/pop/rock song.

Over the past 10 or so years, I've listened to more country music, thanks to a combination of its contemporary performers and music saturation / technology.  Plus, my adult children now listen more to it, so I hear the overflow.

I've long said that when it comes to one-off, clever song lyrics, country music rules.  (Note I said clever lyrics, not necessarily meaningful ones, so this group won't make it on my 'Best Song Lyrics' recurring blog posts.)

This is particularly true in the area of drinking alcohol, which is definitely one of the most popular themes in the genre.  I suppose it has something to do with so many country songs being about partying, or losing a job or a significant other.

What follows is my alphabetical compilation of 10 country music songs and their *contemporary* performers that even a non-country-music-listener like me knows about, with some of their noteworthy lyrics: 

Alcohol / Brad Paisley

'Cause since the day I left Milwaukee, Lynchburg and Bordeaux, France

Been making a fool out of folks just like you

Alcohol

Bartender / Lady A

Hey bartender pour 'em hot tonight

'Til the party and the music and the truth collide

Bring it 'til his memory fades away

Beer Never Broke My Heart / Luke Combs

Longneck, ice cold beer never broke my heart

Like diamond rings and football teams

Have torn this boy apart

Drink In My Hand / Eric Church

No need to complicate it, I'm a simple man

All you got to do is put a drink in my hand

Drunk On A Plane / Dierks Bentley

It's Mardi Gras up in the clouds, I'm up so high, may never come down

I'll try anything to drown out the pain, they all know why I'm getting drunk on a plane

Friends In Low Places / Garth Brooks

Cause I've got friends in low places

Where the whiskey drowns

And the beer chases my blues away

It's Five O'Clock Somewhere / Alan Jackson and Jimmy Buffett

Pour me something tall and strong, make it a hurricane, before I go insane

It's only half past twelve, but I don't care, it's five o'clock somewhere

Red Solo Cup / Toby Keith

Red solo cup, I fill you up

Let's have a party

Ten With A Two / Kenny Chesney

Last night I came in at 2 with a 10

But at 10 I woke up with a 2

Tennessee Whiskey / Chris Stapelton

You're as smooth as Tennessee whiskey, you're as sweet as strawberry wine.

You're as warm as a glass of brandy, and honey, I stay stoned on your love all the time.

Wine, Beer, Whiskey / Little Big Town

The wine, the beer, the whiskey, are the only things that fix me

I'm not saying it's a problem, I can stop it if I wanna

But the wine, the beer, the whiskey, they always get me

Faux-Patriots

July 4th week brings out all sorts of people trying to display their patriotism.  This used to be a very simple thing, like American flag waving, wearing red, white, and blue apparel, or attending parades highlighting veterans with marching bands playing old patriotic melodies.

More recently, in the past five years particularly, many Americans have drastically changed their personal definitions of what it means to be a patriot, in ways that are actually the opposite of the word's meaning.

These so-called 'patriots' are basically cut from the same cloth.  They are all on the extreme edges of their political parties.  They all parrot the same rhetoric from the fringe media sources they follow.  They think government is bad -- you know, the same government they desperately looked to when they needed to fend off a pandemic that economically disenfranchised millions, and killed hundreds of thousands of people in the country along the way.

That isn't patriotism.  They don't love their country.  They dislike their country to the point they will resort to -- and even promote -- violence to get their way.  How can you be less patriotic than that?

That isn't to say there's an equal number of faux-patriots on both sides.  No, they are sharply tilted to the Republican side, where conservative extremism has become the norm thanks to a mentally ill ex-president who they somehow excused to make incessant lying and grifting something worthy of their praise (not to mention their vote).

Their stained idea of patriotism has now reached the point that they rationalize armed insurrection is OK, as long as it's meant to stop a democratically-elected government they don't like.  Basically, they are fans of the Civil War, which is further manifested in their promotion of white, Christian, straight, males -- preferably all carrying guns for which they have no permit.

It's gotten to the point of cringing when I hear people use the word 'patriot'.  I don't want their idea of American patriotism conflated with mine: Belief and action towards a free society, with democratic majority rule, capitalism with a social safety net, equality and human rights for all races, genders, religions, and sexual orientations.

That's what the majority of Americans believe in.  That's patriotism.

Dear Graduating Class of 2021

Another crazy, pandemic-altered scholastic year in the books.  One thing still the same, however, is my annual message to graduates.....

To the graduating class of 2021,

Wow, what a final year of school that was, huh?!  You probably spent more of it learning online than in a classroom or lecture hall, depending on whether you lived in a 'red' state or a 'blue' state.  (You'll learn more about the color of states one day, as we run up to the second civil war.)

Was the year really so bad?  For you and for your parents, yes, yes it was.  Regardless of whether you were in high school or college, not being able to fully enjoy all of the curricular and extra curricular of that senior year had to suck.

On the other hand, your sacrifice, such as it was, allowed academic society to function during a pandemic in a way that didn't endanger more lives.  You aren't getting a medal for that, and not many will remember how your senior year was less than it should have been because of it.

Which brings me to my main message -- get used to it.  Meaning get used to not being praised, much less rewarded, for making sacrifices.

This is going to be a theme for most of your life.  Your work bosses are going to take the praise you want, and give the grief you don't want.  That's also going to suck, but like the pandemic, it also won't last.

If you keep your nose to the grindstone and work hard, you'll eventually be noticed and get what's coming to you.  And another silver lining is, you now have a headstart on how to excel by working remotely, the new way of the future.

Let me put it into a different perspective:  The generations before you also had to make sacrifices that ruined their senior years.  These included things like living through -- and being victims of -- race oppression, economic depression, and war.  Imagine having to go overseas to dodge bullets instead of going to homecoming dances or kegger parties.

Unfortunately, those real, major sacrifices didn't garner them the praise they deserved either.  (Some of them did get medals, like purple hearts, if you consider that an acceptable reward for being hurt, or losing a limb.)

So, Buck Up, Class of 2021!  You got the shaft, similar to the Class of 2020, but at least you got a graduation ceremony.  And it doesn't give you permission to live in your parents' basement forever.

Can't Spell Old-Fogie Without G-O-L-F

We interrupt our regularly scheduled blog post for a message on recent news.  At age 50, somebody just won the PGA Championship, one of the four most important golf tournaments in the world.

Phil Mickelson, nearly age 51, did this a few days ago.  He's the oldest person to ever win a major golf championship.  This is a tremendous feel-good story for both sports and aging.

Over the past two decades, golf has become a sport that requires significant power and clubhead speed to be played at an elite level.  On most American golf courses, it's a huge advantage to be able to hit a golf ball longer.  The course where Mickelson won, the Kiawah Island Ocean Course in South Carolina, was played at one of the longest yardages of any tournament in history.

Just as a late-30-ish person begins to lose their agility and skill at most sports, there's no way a guy in his 50s should be able to hit the ball as far as others that are 10, 20, even 30 years younger.  But Mickelson has stayed healthy and flexible and powerful enough to do it.  That he still happens to have one of the best chipping and putting games in the world is no small feat, either.

To top it off, Mickelson has long been a crowd favorite for both boomers and youngsters, so it was a very popular victory.  He's been my favorite golfer to follow in the past 30 years, going back to when my old favorite growing up, Jack Nicklaus, stopped seriously competing in the late 1980s as he was approaching age 50.

It proves that golf is a sport that can be played competitively, even at the highest level, at an age well beyond what can be done in other legitimate sports.  (A possible exception is bowling, or maybe billiards or darts, but if you can play them in a bar, is it really a legitimate sport?)

It also proves, once again, that people can accomplish great things throughout their lives, not just when they're 'young' whatever that means.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2021

Unfortunately again this year, only virtual attendance was allowed at the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.  It was still quite different than last year, when the meeting was held in an empty arena in Omaha.

This year, the meeting was held in a studio / ballroom in Los Angeles, to make it easier for Charlie Munger to attend and participate.  Everybody missed having him around to make his smart aleck comments last year, including Warren Buffett.

I watched the entire stream again, almost five hours of Buffett and Munger answering questions submitted by email.  Buffett first kicked off the meeting by noting that not one of the 20 top companies by market capitalization 30 years ago are still among the top 20 today.  The point being, no one knows how things are going to change in the coming years.

This year, more questions were directed or re-directed toward the co-COOs, Ajit Jain and Greg Abel, so we got to hear more from them.  Which leads to the biggest reveal from the meeting.....

Munger inadvertently mentioned that Greg, (not "Greg or Ajit") would maintain the Berky culture, implicitly admitting Abel would become the CEO.  Buffett confirmed this after the meeting, and while it was highly expected, it was the first public confirmation of something that has been a closely guarded secret for many years.

Aside from that slip of the tongue, the 97-year-old Munger didn't disappoint, sharing his disgust for things like cryptocurrencies, which he described as "contrary to the interests of civilization."  Both Buffett and Munger also held noted disdain for special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs), due to the self-interest of the participants over shareholders.  Same for new investing apps like Robinhood, which Buffett described as a "casino group that's joined the stock market."

Near the end, one of the best quotes came from Munger when he said about the past year, ""If you're not a little confused by what's going on, you don't understand it."

Buffett signed off by saying he hoped we could all get back together in person next year in Omaha.  I plan to be there.

Thinning The Herd Immunity

One of the more recent entries in the COVID-19 pandemic lexicon is 'vaccine hesitancy'.  This is the term for avoiding / refusing to receive a COVID-19 vaccination for a variety of reasons -- more on that later.

Vaccine hesitancy / avoidance / refusal has become the latest politicized issue in a pandemic full of them.  Republicans are generally rejecting vaccines while Democrats generally can't get vaccinated soon enough.  Unfortunately for both groups, not getting the COVID-19 vaccine is bad for everyone, since there will be no way to achieve herd immunity without a near 90% vaccination rate.

The reasons given for this hesitancy range from the ridiculous (the government is injecting people with tracking software) to the sublime (afraid of needles).  Regardless, the vaccine hesitancy group is, among other things, selfish.  They constitute a group of societal free-riders, essentially getting the benefits of a world where others are sacrificing, without making any sacrifices of their own. 

More unfortunately for the Rs in that group, however, is they will suffer the majority of future hospitalizations and death.  Pre-vaccine, everyone generally shared the consequences of those idiots who chose to behave recklessly (although front-line health care workers suffered more).  Post-vaccine, the harms of the COVID-19 virus will increasingly fall on the vaccine hesitant.

So, the pandemic outcomes are now bifurcating.  Those willing and able to get vaccinated will be OK, while the unwilling, science-denying, free-riders will eventually get the virus, and a certain percentage of them will be hospitalized and/or die.

Maybe herd immunity actually means we have to thin the herd somehow.

Let It Hit The Fan

Money.  In America, it's the number one reason why most people will do most things.  If you want to understand why adults are motivated to do things, follow the money.

Attention.  In America, it's the runner-up reason why most people will do most things.  If you want to understand why adults are motivated to do things besides for money, it's for attention, which is often monetized.  (See reason one.)

Is there a way to combine these two powerful motivators to accomplish something larger?  Absolutely.  And one of the main vehicles for this has to be the major organized sports leagues.

We've seen professional sports leagues and players, most notably from the NBA / WNBA, use their platforms to drive political and social change.  Just last year, players in those leagues so far as to boycott games in response to social unrest over the treatment of blacks in America.  It had limited economic impact due to the pandemic, but it got people's attention.

There are much better, broader examples from the past.  In the 1990s, states that didn't recognize MLK Day were eliminated as hosts for crown jewel sporting events.  (The NFL pulled the Super Bowl from Arizona.)  Something similar happened later in North Carolina and Indiana when those states passed anti-LGBTQ laws, and the leagues (along with the NCAA) avoided or pulled out from those states as hosts for events like the NBA All-Star game or the NCAA basketball tournament.

These actions also had a domino effect of making corporations not host conventions in those states.  Suddenly, when states realized the loss of revenue, not to mention the embarrassing attention, they got rid of those laws.

Examples like these highlight why organized sports leagues could be doing more now, as republican-led states pass anti-voting laws, and/or anti-LGBTQ laws.  If the NFL, NBA, NCAA, or Major League Baseball had their act together, they'd simply tell these states that they won't do business there, at least not outside of regular franchise operations.  An even more effective approach would be the players associations of the pro leagues boycotting games, ending the public's great desire to watch them.  Then things would hit the fan (pun intended!) although it would be a monetary sacrifice some players would not want to make.

This year, the Major League Baseball All-Star game is supposed to be in Atlanta, Georgia, the state most actively passing voter suppression laws.  They should move that game, and let the money and attention flow to states with smarter elected officials.  Then let's see what happens -- if the past is prologue, things will change fast.

Irony Is Wasted On The Stupid

Since the start of the year, states have been grappling with the procurement and end-user delivery of COVID-19 vaccines.  (States are doing this because there was no national plan, thanks to the incredible collection of dumbasses in the prior presidential administration.)  It's very similar to how the entire pandemic has been handled, which I've compared to the Wild West.  There are no laws, only unenforced guidelines that many people simply choose not to follow.

Most states / governors have tried to establish sensible vaccine distribution guidelines that seek to inoculate frontline healthcare workers and older-aged Americans.  However, some states have now decided to open vaccine eligibility to those under age 65 if they have an underlying health condition that heightens the risk of severe illness from COVID-19.  This seems benign enough until you look at what is considered (by our Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) to be a qualifying health condition.....

The most objectionable condition has to be those who currently or previously smoked cigarettes.  Those who choose to pollute their lungs, not not mention the air that we all breathe, get bumped up in this line.  What a travesty, spending a life-saving vaccine on people who are willingly shortening their lives every day of the week -- plus increasing everyone's health care costs while they're at it.  Bravo, CDC.

Another questionable condition has to be obesity.  Yes, I realize there are illness-based and genetically-based reasons why some people may become clinically obese. Even conceding that, this means many others who became obese simply by eating too much of the wrong things and not exercising, will be able to get a vaccination before others who made healthier choices.

Leave it to the government to nudge people away from living a healthy lifestyle by rewarding those who don't.  They should call it the 'anti-survival of the fittest' policy.

The bigger irony is, this pandemic would have hospitalized and killed many fewer Americans to begin with if its citizens had healthier diets / lifestyles. Now to add insult to injury, anyone who has spent a lifetime staying fit by eating right, not smoking, and being active, is going to pay a price for that by being made to wait to be vaccinated against a deadly virus.  Who knew that being healthy could be such a vice?

In the words of the great playwright Oscar Wilde, “Irony is wasted on the stupid.”

We're Not All Experts

I've been working in the retirement / investment planning world for a long time now.  I don't recall anyone I've ever talked to about retirement, meaning hundreds of people, expressing much confidence in their retirement planning.  There are just too many variables, and too many programs like social security and Medicare they don't understand.

However, when it comes to talking to many of those same people about investing, there is not only confidence, but more recently overconfidence about how to do things.  Why is that?  Consider a few macro-reasons:

1) Thanks to American innovation and capitalism, the stock market goes up over long periods of time.  It also goes down, sometimes sharply, for short periods of time, but people eventually forget about that short-term pain.  So, over long periods of time, they see their money grow, and they assume this means they're great investors.  In fact, all they've really done is to stumble into one of the greatest passive investment strategies there is -- put money in stocks, and do nothing.  This works fine, until retirement, when you no longer want too much invested in stocks.

2) The proliferation of financial media outlets in the past two decades has given people many opportunities to be 'enlightened' by so-called investing experts.  Watch enough TV or read enough on the internet, and soon people are convinced that they too, are experts by simply following the unsolicited advice of these other so-called experts.  If anyone actually tracked their results, they'd be disappointed, but rarely does anyone track the performance of a media-expert.  Also, no one wants to be inconvenienced by the truth.

3) A perfect pandemic storm that includes the introduction of no-fee securities trading, a massive surge in technology stocks, and social media platforms and influencers.  Many in the new 'work-from anywhere'  crowd have only been able to do this investing thing for a short time, during a prolonged market upswing.  At this point, they think the stock market and their investments only go up.  Their confirmation bias will ultimately lead them into one of the inevitable sharp short-term market corrections.  Unlike others, this millennial-heavy group isn't likely to have the patience or discipline to keep from exiting their positions.

Investing doesn't have to be complicated, but it decidedly isn't a simple thing.  The only sure thing is, being overconfident in one's ability to do it will lead to a bad outcome.

Apple Watch Watch

I bought myself an Apple Watch for Christmas.  At least that's what I told myself and others, I really didn't need a reason other than I've wanted one for a while.

When wear-able technology first became available to consumers, I wasn't a fan.  I couldn't get past what people were doing with their Fitbits, something I thought was a fad (mostly correctly) and an intrusion on others' lives, namely mine.

Over the past couple of years, I've noticed how my kids have used their Apple Watches.  There did seem to be a definite convenience to getting a digital notification by a simple vibration on the arm, and being able to disseminate its importance with a quick turn of the wrist.  Plus, it was so much more than a Fitbit, since it integrates with Apple Store apps.

Of course, for those who feel they must use it for health reasons, it includes a fitness monitor that lets the wearer know if they're being active enough.  While I don't use that feature, it's fine for others who need the motivation.  More importantly, it lets the the owner share that information with other Apple Watch users upon request and acceptance, which lessens the chance anyone will share that unneeded info with me!

One of the more recent concerns I had about the Apple Watch was the unusual feeling of having something on my wrist.  I hadn't worn a watch regularly for a couple of years, and saw little future reason to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Turns out that wearing a watch is like riding a bike, and I picked it up again without even thinking about it.

So thumbs up for the Apple Watch.....another technology product I didn't know I needed until Apple invented it and told me I needed it.

No More F**** To Give About T****

Over the years, I've made fun of people who consistently make, and make public, their New Year's resolutions.  I've probably even made fun of them in some previous blog post.  I'm all for improvement via positive self-talk, but the vast majority of these resolutions are forgotten within a couple of months, even though the initial self-affirmations remain on social media accounts forever.

That said, this year I'm going to join the crowd, and publicize my own resolution.  It's very simple: I'm not going to remain silent or try to change / avoid the subject the next time I hear anyone, speaking to me in person or in a group, tries to defend the worst, narcissistic, racist, xenophobic, homophobic, misogynistic, grifting, criminal, fascist president in U.S. history, Donald T****.

In retrospect, it's a shame I put so much effort into not confronting people on that topic before now.  It seemed like such a waste of time and energy, trying to use truth and facts to explain something to the unwilling and unknowing.  Changing the subject was a more rational approach than trying to change a mind warped by far right-wing media platforms, which supported / support  T**** and the republican party (small caps on purpose) at all costs.

It was also a function of my professional life, to try to maintain neutrality.  I have clients from all walks of life, although they are overwhelmingly white Iowans.  It sort of reminds me of the famous Michael Jordan quote from a simpler time, when he was asked why he didn't use his platform for social change.  "Republicans buy shoes, too," was his reply.

During the Black Lives Matter protests of last summer, it started to dawn on me that silence wasn't the correct option.  That's the 'white privilege' way of doing things.  Silence can be taken as complicity.

So coming into this year, I decided I wasn't going down that path anymore.  After last week's crazed insurrection movement that killed people at the U.S. Capitol on 1/6/2021, I have extra motivation to not be silent when others are saying and doing ignorant, deranged things.  Put less politely, I don't have anymore fucks to give about those people.

I'm not going out on a limb by putting this in writing on my little unknown blog.  But if anyone reads it and disagrees, or anyone is offended by my verbal pushback someday, I'm ready to move on without them as clients or friends.

I decided long ago I'd reached the point where I really only want to be around people who improve me personally and professionally.  T****-lickers don't do that, and after last week, it's embarrassing to even be around them.