How To Win A Coin Toss

If you were told your odds of investing success were no better than a coin toss, how would you react?

Standard & Poor's recently published an annual year-end scorecard, called the Standard & Poor’s Indices Versus Active (SPIVA) report.  SPIVA compares the performance of active mutual funds versus their respective benchmark indices.  Not surprisingly, the results continue to favor the indices.

For the 5-year period ending December 31, 2012, 79% of actively managed U.S. equity funds failed to beat their benchmark index.  The percentage that failed for international equity and fixed income funds were 66% and 69%, respectively.  Put another way, the odds of picking an active fund that outperformed its benchmark were less than successfully calling a coin toss!

Unfortunately, these results do not fully paint the picture of active management's underperformance.  SPIVA’s return measurements do not take into account significant fees that most active mutual funds charge.  Additional costs include management expenses, commissions, and marketing fees, all of which further reduce returns.

This is another of a multitude of studies that reach the same conclusion:  Investors expose themselves to additional market risk from active managers' attempts to outperform a given benchmark – risk that is not compensated by higher returns.  Further, the higher costs associated with active mutual fund investing make the probability of outperforming the market extremely unlikely.

I have always advocated a different approach to investing, one that acknowledges what SPIVA confirms.  Specifically, allocating and owning a portfolio of passively managed, tax efficient, and low cost funds allow investors to capture the most that capital markets provide year after year.

Investors’ assets should not be left to chance.  By using a passive investing strategy, you can markedly and consistently improve the odds of investing success beyond the toss of a coin.