Post #500 -- The Finale?

It started with a post called The Idea.  15 years and 499 blog posts later, I'm at #500.

Normally I'd be composing my annual entry on things I'd like to see happen next year.  (A couple of them actually happened, but the majority didn't, as is the norm.)  But I'm not going to do that this year.  In fact I may never do it again, because the time has come for me to take a (permanent?) sabbatical from this blog.

I never started a blog with the expectation that it would influence anyone or create a following.  I did it because at the time 1) it was a popular thing to do, and 2) I thought it would help organize my thoughts and possibly help my writing skills.  The former has been taken over by new technology (substacks and podcasting), while the latter....that probably did work out.  At the least, I have some good background material for the age 45-60 part of my future memoir.

Looking back at those previous entries, so much has happened and changed over 15 years, to me and to the world and how I view it.  If this is going to be my last post, I'm going to spend it by pulling the camera back to that long ago, and draw some big picture conclusions:

The world is sorely lacking critical thinkers.

I've always subtitled this blog "The random rants of a critical thinker."  I never meant it in a braggadocios way, but rather to spotlight a competency I have that, frankly, most people don't.  Most people believe, in full or part, whatever they hear or read.  They're either unable or unwilling to do their own objective research to determine what's true from false, or right from wrong.  Lots of my rants over the years made this clear, and it's a major, worsening problem in America.  If the 2024 national election proved anything, it's that propaganda rules when we don't have enough critical thinking.

Advances in personal technology are both the best and worst thing for America.

First the good:  We are so much more productive now than 15 years ago.  We're able to do more with less, and do it more efficiently.  I've had my sole proprietorship business for the past six years, and there is no way I could do it without the technology I have at my disposal -- some of which wasn't available 15 years ago.

That said, social media is softly killing this country.  It was great at first, and then rogue players moved in to monetize it and/or politicize it, because they know people are easily manipulated.  (This goes hand-in-hand with the prior paragraph.)  It makes people do bad things to themselves and to others.  In the worst case, it leads to autocracy and anarchy.

Music must have good lyrics to be good music.

'Nuff said.

Travel to other places is a very good thing.

I wouldn't say I've traveled extensively, and definitely not internationally, but I've traveled all over the country enough to know everyone should do it.  Every time I've been to a different region of the country, I've come back with my thinking reset as to how people and places aren't alike in how they go about things.  There are all kinds of people doing all kinds of things all kinds of ways, and it's great to see that.  People who don't travel don't see this, and tend to think their way, their beliefs, are the only ones.  That isn't good for them or anyone else. 

Cannabis deserves the same legal treatment as alcohol and prescription drugs.

The federal government insists on acting like marijuana / cannabis leads to worse outcomes than alcohol or prescription meds.  Really?  Worse than the tens of thousands of alcohol-related illnesses and drunk driving deaths?  Worse than the opioid or fentanyl crisis?  It's willful ignorance.  Most cannabis users are just going for at-home pain relief or a cartoon-watching buzz.  It calms them down, it doesn't make them hurt themselves or go out and hurt others.  It's beyond time for regulated, federal legalization, but it won't happen until the feds decide they want the tax revenue now going to the states.

Investing isn't costly, but it can be.

I'm not saying it's easy, but I am saying you don't have to pay so much to have others manage money for you.  You have to dig deep, find out where the hidden costs are, and not let the financial and insurance industrial complex work for them instead of for you.  For most, this simply means finding an advisor they trust.  Unfortunately, that usually means they end up going with some non-credentialed stranger they know from somebody who knows somebody who knows a person who they sometimes sit next to occasionally at church.  Like anything else you buy, caveat emptor.

So.....I guess that's all for now.  Don't forget to buy my memoir, but until then, peace out.

Is Thanksgiving Real

It's Thanksgiving week, which means I'm going to the well again for a list of things for which I am not thankful.  It's going to be a politically heavy list this year, because it's an easy fit....

The most corrupt, amoral, unethical person to be elected U.S. president, Trump.

All of the complicit, lying, sycophants of that person.

The right-wing Republican propaganda machine.

The stupidity of Americans, and by default, the American electorate.  I wrote about this 15 years ago!

Our lack of critical thinkers.  I wrote about this 13 years ago!

I'm sure I've said this in the past, maybe multiple times, but....reality television.

Tech bros.

Crypto bros.

Real estate commissions.

People who don't take care of their yards.

Door dings.

Spam texts and emails.

Drop The Anchor

I've written before about behavioral science, and my interest in the same, especially in the sub-area of economics.  In short, it's the study of why people persist doing certain things, even though the logical quantitative answer is to do something else.
 
There are a variety of terms that describe what causes these events.  One of them is referred to as 'anchoring', which is when people use initial information as a reference point for decisions.

For example, a car dealer might show someone a very expensive vehicle with a high price before showing a more modestly priced version.  That's more likely to make the buyer think they're getting a good deal for the latter car.

I'm having issues with anchoring right now, thanks to the process of buying and selling a house.  It's a great test of allowing (or not allowing) anchoring to influence behavior. 

The seller has to set a price, and although everyone assumes they'll take less, it still establishes a point from which negotiations start.  It's the same for a prospective buyer, who offers a purchase price that becomes an anchor for a seller counter-offer.

The anchoring effect is very powerful, even in non-financial situations.  Consider a contest to guess how many items are in a basket.  The first person to make a guess is going to influence the others making a guess, even though the first person has no additional knowledge beyond the others.

Probably the best way to avoid being influenced by anchoring is to get more reference points, if not ignoring the first choice/offer altogether.

On the other hand, if you want others to be influenced by your  anchoring, get your information/number out there ASAP!

Home Sweet Home

Last month, after a few years of looking for the 'right' place, my spouse and I purchased a new (actually 5-year old) house in suburban Des Moines.  We loved our residence of the past 22 years, which we located and built, but it was time to move on.

In those two decades, we've gone from a family of five with three teens or pre-teens, to a family of two.  We neither need nor want a large 2-story house on a big corner lot.  We want something newer and easier to maintain.

It's been a while since I've been engaged in all that comes with selling and buying a house.  Of course. I have a bulleted list of the my thoughts:

• After living in the same home with three children for 22 years, you accumulate A LOT of stuff.  Some of of it qualifies as valuable, some as keepsake, but way too much are long forgotten items with no reason to be kept, much less packed up and moved.  Get started early with packing.

• Even the keepsake items don't all deserve to be kept.  Some things I thought I'd keep until I was old to look back on as a fond memory.  And then I realized, that's what I'm doing right now!  So it was time for some of it to go.  It's hard, but take a picture and digitize it forever, and it'll be fine.

• Take it from me -- don't have a garage sale.  We did, but let's do some math.  If it takes two days to get it ready, two days for the sale, and one day to clean up what's left, that's five days times let's say eight hours equals 40 hours.  (A low guess.)  Then if you have very above-average sale of mostly $10 or $5 or $1 or less items, let's say you end up with $600.  That's $15 an hour -- not bad, but I value my time at 5x or 10x that.  It isn't worth it.  Sell the higher priced things, and donate or toss everything else. 

• As for the move in part, if at all possible, spend a few days cleaning and making any repairs to the new house when it's empty.  So much easier than maneuvering around boxes.  There's so much ancillary stuff to do anyway, like re-key the doors and connect the Wi-Fi.

• Last but not least and probably most, we need reform in the residential realtor industry.  Just a month ago the industry agreed to more transparency in the commissions they charge, but transparent doesn't mean less expensive.  Realtors have coalesced around the idea they are entitled to a 6% commission on the sale price, regardless of their time or effort.  There is no substantive negotiation about whether that commission percentage should apply based on the actual sale price or the length of time it might take to sell.  They think they deserve it, even before doing anything.  I think they should be embarrassed. 

It's tough to say goodbye to a place where so many milestones occurred.  That's what the memories are for.

On Turning 60

I turned 60 years old last week.  Much like my 40th and 50th birthdays, I've been very contemplative about it.  I'm mainly trying to determine how my life is different, for better or worse, than I thought it might be when I was younger.

It's easy to come up with the 'worse' part.  In your 20s and 30s, if you're thinking about the future at all, you're thinking of a lot of nice material things, like big houses and luxury cars and destination vacations.  You might be thinking of having a family, but you aren't worried about that deterring you from the material things.

Of course, the reality for most of us is we don't get all of that.  With hard work and good luck, you achieve some of those goals, but ultimately you realize there's a big difference between goals and dreams.

Meanwhile, I always conclude the 'better' of it is the non-material things.  Family.  Friends.  Health.  I'm old enough now that I don't care about having the biggest house or the nicest toys.

In fact, thanks to the lessons of time, it's a good feeling to not care so much about things that now seem trivial.  I still have goals (and dreams), but now the list is shorter.  Much shorter.

I said the same thing at 60 that I did and 40 and 50.  Achieving a new decade -- age itself -- is a gift.  I'm very satisfied with that.

Midway

I recently returned from a trip to the La Jolla / San Diego area.  I'd been there once previously, which I wrote about in 2021.  I want to add something to that summary -- this time, I toured the decommissioned aircraft carrier, the USS Midway.

The Midway was the main naval vessel involved in Operation Desert Storm, circa 1991.  It's now a museum, permanently docked in the San Diego harbor across from the Navy base on Coronado Island (where it just so happened two active aircraft carriers were docked).

Along with an audio tour, there were dozens of volunteer docents to help guide you around.  These were almost all retired Navy vets, so they could add great context to what you saw and heard.

About what you saw and heard about.....this is a short list:

The flight deck, full of past Naval aircraft.

The bridge.

The navigation room.

The communications room.

The lower decks, which included the barracks, the officers quarters, the galley and kitchen, the sick bay, the machine room, the boiler room, and much more.

It was mind-boggling to think of what it took to build the ship, and what it took to operate it a city of 4500 people on the sea.  Not to mention how something that weighs 100,000 tons can even float!

I highly recommend going to the USS Midway Museum.

Escape Pods

For something that is now so ingrained into our culture, only once before have I blogged about podcasts.  That was back in 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, when we all craved for new entertainment content.

There are so many more podcasts out there now.  Some are good, some are bad, and some only exist to make money for a producer without any social value.

I don't have time to listen to all of the podcasts I'd like -- there are too many of them, and/or their running time is too long.  (In the same way no movie needs to be longer than two hours, no podcast needs to be longer than 45 minutes.  And this is coming from someone who never listens to the commercials, nor listens at less than 1.5x speed.  To me, an hour-long podcast equals a three hour-long movie, and no one has the time or content to remain interested in that.)

As mentioned in 2020, my main go-to podcasts are those from the Freakonomics Network.  They have several now in addition to the main weekly podcast, including a newer one called The Economics Of Everyday Things.  It's about how some industries work, anything from Girl Scout cookies to car washes to body part sales(?).  Plus, it's always less than 30 minutes long -- see last paragraph.

A longer, similar podcast is called Search Engine, which is a deep-dive on a hodgepodge of topics that we might never think about.

For politics, you can't beat Pod Save America, hosted by the former Obama speechwriting crew.  If you don't lean progressive, a more middle-of-the-road podcast is Hacks On Tap, hosted by former democratic and republican political operatives.  (Mike Murphy, the republican, is as witty as they get.)

On the lighter side, I prefer Conan O'Brien Needs A Friend, in which he interviews mostly other comics.  His shorter fan-interview offshoot, Conan O'Brien Needs A Fan, is also great.  No one is funnier and more likable than Conan.

I know, I know, there are so many more that I'm sure would be great to hear, including some I've never even heard of yet.  (That doesn't include true crime or cold case stories, which I don't care about.)

This is as far as I can go in my current pre-retirement world.

Dear Graduating Class of 2024

Congratulations, Class of 2024!  You got to start your journey during the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, and now many of you are, or should be, ending it during the year democracy may die.  What is it with you?

Never mind that.  Think about this.....I've often said that all possible graduation commencement addresses may have already been given.

Think about the tens of thousands of speeches given every year by valedictorians and featured guests, over decades, and it's hard to believe every theme hasn't been covered.  I've been doing this annual post since 2012, and I'm not even going to pretend I haven't repeated a theme, or at least infiltrated one.

With that in mind, my advice to you this year will be an addendum of advice I gave from last year.  In 2023, I talked about how being 'woke' was generally a good thing, not a bad thing.

Which brings me to now, when we've seen small but noteworthy protests on college campuses over the Israel-Hamas war.  More specifically, the protests allege Palestinian genocide by Israel for its bombardment of Gaza, and ask for the war to end.  Some of the protests have not been peaceful, and have disrupted graduation ceremonies.

Look, it's good that you twenty-year-olds are so concerned about genocide that you'd want to actively protest about it, and bring awareness to an issue for which you care.  That's good woke.

However, it's dumb that some of you would protest in a way that threatens or physically harms people or property.  That's bad woke.

And to what end do you protest?  Once you've brought awareness to the issue, and maybe got the college trustees to meet about defunding some part of their endowment, you should declare victory and leave.  How does ruining graduation ceremonies for yourself or others advance your cause?

Also, let's face what should have been an obvious truth -- after graduation, when campuses empty out and there are no cameras to record you, the protests were going to end.  They would have ended soon anyway, as our very short American attention spans lost interest.

So to the Class of 2024 I say, choose your wokeness wisely.  There will be plenty of reasons to be offended in life.  If you're ignoring or amplifying all of them, you're doing it wrong.  

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2024

The first Saturday in May brought with it another Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting.  I was only able to attend the morning session this year, but I was able to pick up the afternoon session from the national video and audio feed.

Among the things I felt were noteworthy:

For the first time since this meeting became what it is, Vice-Chair Charlie Munger wasn't sitting next to Warren Buffett.  Charlie died just short of his 100th birthday last year, and he was missed.  A main reason for me to attend the meeting was to see him make funny, smart-ass comments about the state of certain national and international affairs.

This year the company movie that's always shown before the meeting was all about Charlie, with clips of prior meetings and skits.  At the end Buffett eulogized Munger, saying while Buffett may have been Berkshire's general contractor, Charlie was its architect. 

Buffett was again joined on stage by the current co-CEOs, Greg Abel and Ajit Jain.  Abel, who is the Chairman and CEO in-waiting, basically took on Munger's old role of answering questions after Buffett had given his responses.  Buffett even accidentally referred to Abel as "Charlie" at the start of the meeting.

Buffett reported that Berky is likely to exceed holding $200 billion in cash(!) this quarter, money they'd rather invest in company acquisitions, if they could find reasonably priced ones.

Another huge crowd attended.  At the beginning of the meeting, even the seats behind the stage were nearly full, which I've never seen before.  You can't see anything but a video board from there.

As has become the norm, most shareholder questions came from people attending from other countries, notably Europe and Southeast Asia.  That they would travel this far for what is not a televised meeting is a little bit cultish, even to me who travels about 150 miles.

Given the opportunity to be heard more, I thought Abel did very well with his responses, and it left me with confidence he's going to handle the CEO job just fine.

The Clark Spark

Over this past winter, but particularly over the past 6 weeks, there has been overwhelming attention on the University of Iowa women's basketball team and its superstar player, Caitlin Clark.  When I say overwhelming, I mean local and national media outlets covering it as a top story, along with local and national commercials featuring Clark on a near-constant loop.

This attention may be a bit over-the-top, but it's mostly deserved.  Clark has been a uniquely dominant player on a highly successful team, and she's almost single-handedly brought women's basketball to unparalleled heights of popularity.  (Full disclosure:  My spouse was her 7th and 8th grade math teacher, so I may be slightly biased.)

To me, the Clark-mania is very similar to the late 1970s when Larry Bird dominated men's college basketball with his prolific scoring and passing ability, and brought popularity to the game that hadn't been there before.  Among the similarities, it can't be dismissed that both were white players.  Among the differences, Bird did it when few games were even on TV, while Clark's games are seen by millions. 

Clark has handled herself both on and off the court with style and grace -- although often with a little less grace on the court.  Regardless, people want to see her play, and hear what she has to say.  

All of this attention, however, is bringing out some haters.  Success has a way of doing that, as does the ubiquitousness and anonymity of social media, where idiots compete to offer their extreme opinions.

I get why some are tired of Clark.  Her record-breaking performances have been going on for a few months now, as has the attention to her.  I'm even ready for a break now that college basketball season is over.  What I don't get, though, is the hate coming from current and former women's basketball stars.

I'm sure some of it is economics; Clark's play and ensuring stardom have already enriched her well beyond what those other players have earned over many more years.  However, those players don't seem to understand that the rising tide of attention to the game has lifted their financial boats as well.  It's like someone who won't accept a gift, because they felt deserving of more.

I'm also sure that most of it is plain jealousy.  Those veteran Clark-hating women's players are butt-hurt that even though they worked hard to become elite players, nobody paid much attention to them.  So they've resorted to trying to bring down Clark by suggesting she had to win an NCAA championship to be considered great, or some other such nonsense.

Their complaints are pitifully weak, and frankly, make them look like morons.  It's hard to belittle a player who led the nation in scoring and assists two years in a row.  Besides, what makes Clark great isn't just what she does on the court, but HOW she does it.  No one consistently attempted and made 30-foot shots in the college game before.  It's fun to watch.

It remains to be seen how Clark might continue to transform the women's game going forward.  While she changed the college-level game, that will be harder to do in professional basketball, where better players and extra effort will be available to contain her.

While we wait to find out, let's use the time to make fun of the old-school morons who won't simply acknowledge Caitlin Clark as one of the greatest college basketball players of all-time.

You Are (Probably) Not A Role Model

We need better role models.

Back in the day, we had good role models.  Often times these were family members or close friends with whom we had frequent personal interactions.

If they weren't personal acquaintances, our old school role models still made some impact on us.  Sometimes, our previous role models were civil or religious humanitarians who'd done far-reaching good deeds.  Sometimes, they were military folks who showed tremendous courage in the face of bad circumstances.

Regardless, we had good role models.

Now, most people who admit to having a role model will name a wealthy celebrity -- emphasis on the word wealthy.  More than likely, a person will name an athlete or actor as a role model.

Or these days, it may simply be a billionaire who didn't do anything particularly role model-ish -- they just made an obscene amount of money thanks mostly to American capitalism.

It's this last category I don't understand.  How is a CEO or hedge fund manager, for two examples, worthy of being modeled after?  Because they have money?

(I'll admit to saying Warren Buffett is a role model of mine, but I'm talking about professionally, not personally.  Let me add here that he's the most self-deprecating billionaire around by far, so if you had to name a billionaire role model, he'd be it.)

People have adopted billionaire as role models because they have social media platforms that didn't exist in the past to promote themselves,  Without that, we wouldn't even know who most of them are, much less want to follow in their footsteps.

As role models, billionaire tech bros or investors are not worthy.  Wealth creation is not a prerequisite for it, it's actually a reason why they should be disqualified from it, if there isn't anything else.

So perhaps I should re-phrase my opening....

We don't just need better role models.  We need new ones.

The Psychology Of Money In Practice

Last week, I was in Las Vegas and Phoenix for a mix of business and pleasure.  I had several interactions that provided real-life, end-game examples of what I wrote about in my last blog entry about the book The Psychology of Money, and now I have to share them.....

Vegas is a great venue to observe how people spend money.  More than anywhere on earth, it's a place to stay in your lane when it comes to money, because the opportunities to spend are relentless.

For those who could afford it, the Vegas strip has expensive, even exclusive places to stay, eat, shop, and gamble. For others, the strip has options for more modest lodging, fast food, convenience stores, and yes, gambling.

I saw people staying at $1,000 per night hotel rooms, and I saw people staying at $100 a night rooms.  I saw people dining at celebrity chef restaurants where no prices are posted, and I saw people eating at food courts. I saw people carrying Gucci and Tiffany shopping bags, and I saw people carrying CVS shopping bags.  I saw people playing $100 minimum blackjack, and I saw people playing penny video slot machines.

The psychology of money matters a lot in Vegas.  If a person has a disciplined spending psyche (or is very wealthy), Vegas is a fun and amazing place.  If a person doesn't have a fiscally responsible psyche, Vegas will chew them up and spit them out.

Phoenix provided a more specific example of the psychology of money.  Late winter golf has always been expensive there, with most courses charging well over $100 per 18-hole round.  Above-average resort courses charge far more, some exceeding $500 per round.  Regardless, all golf courses there are packed with players at this time of the year, so prices are much higher than normal.

My attitude has always been one of being willing to pay these higher prices.  By this time of year, I haven't played for a few months, so I haven't spent anything on golf for a long time.  I'm perfectly willing to spend up that savings on winter resort golf.

Meanwhile, other golfers I know who travel or winter there -- people with a materially similar or greater net worth -- won't spend that for golf.  They don't want to pay more than would at other times and places during the year, so they either don't play, or they only play on the lowest-priced (worst conditioned) courses.

In summary, my mindset is, it's more than I want to spend on golf, but I'm willing to do it.  The others' mindset is, it's more than they want to spend, and they aren't willing to do it.

These opposing views are another manifestation of the psychology of money.  Being able to afford / not afford things is one subset.  Being willing to buy / not buy them is another.

The Psychology Of Money

I recently purchased a book called The Psychology of Money.  Not just one book, but dozens of them, which I gave to clients.

It isn't the best finance book I've read, nor is it close to being the best behavioral book I've read.  But it is one of the better behavioral finance books I've read.

I'd summarize it this way -- The Psychology of Money explores the different ways people think about money, and how personal experiences with family, friends, and neighbors will often influence their financial behavior – for better or worse.

Put differently, if a person is around others who are (un)disciplined with money, they're more likely to be the same way.  That may not be a revelation, but it should also make one think about how the same philosophy can be applied to other things.

If you're consistently around people of a certain political view, you're more likely to share it.  Same for religion.  Same for social issues.

This makes it pretty simple to understand the formations of group-thinking a/k/a cultish behavior.  The lack of exposure to other views leave one to believe there are no alternatives.

I'm old enough to remember when the internet was supposed to solve all of this.  It made the world smaller and accessible, so presumably humans (with internet access) would be able to see humanity in a broader context.

Unfortunately, that idea has come crashing down under the weight of unregulated social media apps.  Now people just follow other people online who think the same way.  And let's face it, some of this people are ignorant and malevolent, increasing the likelihood their followers will be that or worse.

Which brings me back to the broader lesson of The Psychology of Money.  You learn what you live, which may or may not be a good thing.

A Candidate Guide, Circa 2024

Tonight the spotlight of American politics once again shines on Iowa, as it holds its quadrennial caucuses.  Beginning this year, it'll only be first-in-the-nation for the Republican party (such as it is), as the Democratic party voted to move their version to the more diverse electorate of South Carolina.

As I did in 2012, 2016, and 2020, here's my candidate guide for this cycle:

Nikki Haley --

The only one exceeding expectations in Iowa, she's not-coincidentally the least extreme on social issues, with some foreign policy experience as former U.N. Ambassador.  Very likely would be the next U.S. president if she won the nomination, and eventually agreed to discard the Trump stench.  In an attempt to save democracy, I should probably go caucus for her, but these days I don't want to register as a Republican for even one day to do it.

Ron DeSantis --

The most underperforming given the expectations of 6-9 months ago.  In addition to his aloofness and lack of charisma, he has no views setting him apart from his main competition.  Religious conservatives have boosted him, but everyone knows after Iowa, that gets him absolutely nowhere.  He's basically a dumber, meaner version of Jeb Bush, another Florida governor whose national profile went down after running for president. 

Vivek Ramaswamy --

Another guy who made a fortune running a tech company who thinks that made him an expert on everything.  Achieved his 15 minute of fame after one summertime debate, but once people looked at him more closely, they didn't like what they saw.  Basically, at this point everybody thinks he's kind of an a-hole with no political credibility.  Probably running for VP at this point.

Donald Trump --

More criminal than candidate, the MAGA cult leader is almost sure to win in a state full of caring but intellectually-challenged older rural white people.

Others Formerly Known As Candidates including Asa Hutchinson (technically still in the caucus), Chris Christie, Doug Bergum, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Will Hurd, Ryan Binkley (who?) -- 

You weren't self-aware enough, and/or were only in it for the attention.  Thanks for visiting.