Wednesday, December 29, 2021

2022

Last year I implied that 2020 was the worst year of everyone's lifetime, you know, pandemic and all.  This year started with the promise that COVID-19 vaccines would make 2021 relatively normal.  I should have known better.

With that in mind, I’ll try to be less optimistic on my annual list of things I’d like to see happen next year.  But first, here’s this year’s annual review with comments in ALL CAPS:

A non-pandemic world where people live without fear of contracting COVID-19.
A HARD-ROCK SOLID NO.

A less-friendly social and legal environment for those who help spread malicious propaganda and conspiracy theories.
A SOFT-ROCK SOLID NO.

A Summer Olympics that actually happens.
YES, BUT IT WASN’T THE SAME WITHOUT CROWDS.

Revelations and prosecutions of Trump administration / organization officials who broke laws.
YES ON THE REVELATIONS, NOT SO MUCH ON THE PROSECUTIONS (YET).

More time to read, more time to listen to podcasts.
THANKS TO AN ONGOING PANDEMIC, THIS WAS PROBABLY MORE TRUE THAN NOT.

An easy integration of administration and technology between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.  (A rare professional ask in this annual list.)
THEY DIDN’T EVEN BEGIN THIS YEAR.

A full return of college and professional sports.
THIS IS A QUALIFIED NO, GAMES WERE STILL POSTPONED AND CANCELED.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 18 consecutive playoff game losses.
NO, BECAUSE THEY'D HAVE TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS FIRST.

Less interaction with people who make every conversation about them.
YES, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS.

An awesome vacation.
DID MAKE A FUN TRIP TO SOCAL AND VEGAS IN SEPTEMBER.

For 2022, I want to experience this:

More mandates and life complications for the unvaxxed, making more of them get vaxxed.

Cryptocurrency regulations.

Prosecutions and convictions of Trump administration / organization officials who had roles in the 1/6/2021 insurrection.

A Winter Olympics that actually happens.

An executive order, at the least, to loosen federal rules on cannabis.

A top-tier Minnesota Vikings football team.

A loss of market cap and credibility for Facebook/Meta.

Me playing golf at a famous course / resort.

A decline in residential home buying.

A repeat from 2020 – me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I’ve never set foot.

Saturday, December 11, 2021

Denying Math > Denying Science

Mostly due to a former wannabe fascist president, the U.S. is stuck in deep political divide, one that has morphed into a divide on practically every other socio-economic issue.

This politically-driven divide is at its dumbest over the COVID-19 vaccine.  While the pandemic has killed over 800,000 Americans, and the vaccine has killed none, the anti-vaxxer crowd cares more about going along with their like-minded group.  In short, they prefer to deny science in order to ‘own the libs’ by getting sick or dying. 

Every once in a while, though, the anti-vaxxer crowd wants to do more than deny science; they also want to deny math.  This is usually manifested by them pointing out that even vaccinated people are getting infected, then showing some kind of data where the infected vaccinated group percentage continues to increase.

It’s such a stupid, specious argument.

Let’s first establish that the vaccines are between 75%-90% efficacious.  None of the vaccine developers ever said they were curative (although the anti-vax crowd wants you to think that).  The vaccines are meant to reduce the number of infections, reduce their symptoms, and minimize deaths.

Then let's establish that while we don’t have nearly enough people vaxxed in this country or world, that number goes up every day.  As that number increases, and the number of unvaxxed people decreases, it is a mathematical certainty that there will be a higher percentage of vaxxed people who still contract COVID-19.  Taken to the limit, if everyone was vaccinated, then the percentage of vaxxed people who become infected will increase to 100%.

Meanwhile, this anti-vaxxer math-denial belies the fact that the percentage of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to increase for the unvaxxed population, regardless of what the vaxxed people do.

In the end, science and math facts aren’t going to matter to a cult-following group.  If you’re willing to believe someone who tells you the earth is flat, it’s likely you’ll also believe 2 + 2 doesn’t equal 4.