2021

The worst year of virtually everyone's lifetime is just ending.  This should make it very easy to complete my annual list of things I'd like to see happen next year.  It will also make it very difficult to review what I wanted to have happen in 2020, and see a near total failure due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  Let's start with that review, with comments in ALL CAPS:

Me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I've never set foot.
HAHA -- I RARELY TRAVELED OUTSIDE OF IOWA, OR EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DES MOINES METRO AREA, THE ENTIRE YEAR

A new president-elect and a corresponding surviving, independent, democratic republic.
ONE WINNER AND ONE PROBABLY WINNER -- IT WILL STILL BE A FEW WEEKS TO PRESIDENT-ELECT BIDEN'S INAUGUARTION DAY TO SEE IF THE REPUBLIC ACTUALLY SURVIVES.

More chances to make a hole-in-one (which means more time to play golf).
GOLF WAS ONE THING THE PANDEMIC DID NOT ALTER MUCH, BUT I DIDN'T PLAY OFTEN UNTIL AFTER MEMORIAL DAY.

Widespread acceptance of plant-based meats on restaurant menus.
PLANT-BASED PROTEINS DEFINITELY EXPANDED THEIR FOOTPRINT, BUT NOT IN RESTAURANTS WITH LIMITED-TO-NO CUSTOMERS.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 16 consecutive playoff game losses.
ACTUALLY WENT BACKWARDS ON THIS.  THEY MADE THE PANDEMIC-SHORTENED SEASON PLAYOFFS AND THEN PROCEDED TO LOSE ANOTHER TWO GAMES TO BRING THE STREAK TO 18!

Consolidation in the video streaming service industry.
THIS ALSO WENT BACKWARDS, THERE ARE MORE STREAMING INDUSTRY PARTICIPANTS THAN EVER, AND MORE TO COME THANKS TO THE PANDEMIC.

A Summer Olympics without scandal.
I GUESS YOU CAN SAY THIS HAPPENED, SINCE THE OLYMICS WERE CANCELED.

Greater federal regulation of Facebook, and less people using it to show me pictures of their food.
THERE WAS MORE EMPHSIS ON REGULATION, BUT FACEBOOK IS BASICALLY SELF-REGULATING, WHICH IS TO SAY THEY AREN'T DOING MUCH.

A new artist who brings back the sound of classic rock.
THIS WAS ALWAYS A PIPE DREAM.

That I never order from a bar that tells me it has no Crown Royal Apple.

I WAS NEVER AT A BAR TO ORDER ALL YEAR, SO AGAIN, TECHNICALLY THIS WISH CAME TRUE.

Now for 2021, let's see these things happen:

A non-pandemic world where people live without fear of contracting COVID-19.

A less-friendly social and legal environment for those who help spread malicious propaganda and conspiracy theories.

A Summer Olympics that actually happens.

Revelations and prosecutions of Trump administration / organization officials who broke laws.

More time to read, more time to listen to podcasts.

An easy integration of administration and technology between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade.  (A rare professional ask in this annual list.)

A full return of college and professional sports.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 18 consecutive playoff game losses.

Less interaction with people who make every conversation about them.

An awesome vacation.

The Sound Of Silence

Last week I mentioned 'curated fan noise for televised sports' was something for which I'm not thankful.  It's really more than that.  I hate it.

This curated fan noise has been around for a long time.  Fox Sports is the biggest purveyor of it, and they have the volume turned way up.  For years, if you watch their NFL broadcasts, you can barely hear the announcers over the fake fan noise.  And if you listen closely, you can make out the same noises in sort of a rotation.  It's embarrassing, and just another reason to hit the mute button.

This Fall, because there are few if any fans allowed at football games, TV networks decided to add this fake fan noise to a new level, adding it to (almost) all broadcasts.  The NFL went so far as to say the fan noise was recorded from actual fans of the teams playing.

For me, this is insulting to watch / listen to.  I don't need fake fan noise to help me watch a game.  Who does?  I'd rather watch the game with the actual noise, even it there isn't any.  Actually, I'd rather watch a bunch of games at once with no audio at all, like it is at gambling sports books.

I get the idea of trying to give the at-home viewer the experience of being at the game.  But if the games are silent during the COVID-19 pandemic, then give me the real deal quiet.  

The Most Thankless Year Ever

In the year of a once-in-a-century pandemic, it's never been easier to come up with my annual list of things for which I am not thankful.  The only reason this list isn't longer than usual is my own editing, not because I ran out of items.  In random order:

COVID-19.

Chinese wet markets and bat-eaters.

Candidates who lose elections and refuse to concede.

Large wedding parties and receptions.

Adhering to 'no shirt, no shoes, no service' as a health issue, but then refusing to wear a mask.

Tik-Tok

The Tiger King documentary.

Conspiracy movements.

Cults.

People who don't accept nor understand math and science.

Spectator-less sporting events.

Curated fan noise for televised sports.

Having more than one state named Dakota.

Social distancing.

Best Song Lyrics (Part XXII)

A few years ago, I saw the touring production of the Broadway show Beautiful: The Carole King Musical.  Until then, I had no idea how many great songs Carole King had written for herself and for others.

I probably should have known better.  I was a pre-teen in the 1960s and 1970s, so it wasn't as if I cared that much about music during the peak Carole King years.  But I had older brothers and sisters who were listening to her music on the radio.  I just didn't make the connection back then.

Along with her writing partner and future spouse (and later ex-spouse), Gerry Goffin, King turned out several hits that others recorded, like Up On The Roof, The Loco-Motion, and Will You Love Me Tomorrow.  The list of songs credited to King the solo artist is equally impressive, including I Feel The Earth Move, and You've Got A Friend.  (The latter was recorded first by James Taylor, but yes, written by King.)

King's famous album Tapestry alone has several hits on it, but to illustrate her songwriting skills I'll single out her pre-1980s technology break-up song So Far Away:

So far away
Doesn't anybody stay in one place anymore?
It would be so fine to see your face at my door
And it doesn't help to know that you're just time away

Long ago, I reached for you and there you stood
Holding you again could only do me good
Oh, how I wish I could
But you're so far away, yeah

One more song about movin' along the highway
I can't say much of anything that's new
But if I could only work this life out my way
I'd rather spend it bein' close to you

But you're so far away
Doesn't anybody stay in one place anymore?
It would be so fine to see your face at my door
And it doesn't help to know, you're so far away

In Defense Of Mechanisms

 A few months ago I made a blog entry about an Intro to Psychology class I took as a freshman in college, and how much of it I still remembered.  A good deal of what was taught in that class came from the research and writings of the most well-known psychological thinker of all-time, Sigmund Freud.

One of those Freudian items was his seven psychological defense mechanisms.  These are essentially ways the mind copes with itself, none of which are particularly appealing:

• Denial: Refusing to accept that something exists or happened, or perhaps simply altering the meaningfulness of an outcome to convince oneself it wasn't important.

• Intellectualization: Thinking about something logically or coldly and without emotion.  

• Projection: Attributing a threatening aspect of oneself to someone else, like accusing another of being angry with you when you in fact are angry with them.

• Rationalization: Creating an acceptable but incorrect explanation of a situation.

• Reaction formation: Doing the opposite of what you would really like to do, such as going out of the way to be nice to someone you really disliked.

• Regression: Returning to an earlier or more childlike form of behavior.

• Repression: Keeping a thought, feeling, or memory of an experience out of consciousness, often with an emotionally difficult situation.

(It's noteworthy that Denial also happens to be the first stage of grief, as I mentioned in that prior post.  It's the quickest and easiest defense mechanism to use, and also the worst one for our society.)  

I've been thinking about these defense mechanisms a lot lately, probably because their usage is way up.  Some of them have come to mind when observing the way people are dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic.  Others have been particularly applicable to politicians and political parties in this election year.  I'm not kidding when I say the current president will occasionally use all of these defense mechanisms in a single reply to a basic question.  (The possible exception is Intellectualization, because that implies logic is involved.)

The point of this all is, 1) I remember obscure things from this college class, and 2) recognizing these defense mechanisms -- not just unknowingly using them -- would enhance everyone's ability to cope with life.

Blocked

You only have to look up the label 'Facebook' on this blog to know I've never been a huge fan.  It was a cool new way for youngsters to communicate at first, but then it was co-opted by adults, and its owners' choices in monetizing the content and data.

If I'm so down on Facebook, you might wonder why I have a Facebook account.  For years now, the answer has been because I use it as an information and entertainment source.

I follow a few comedy shows, see some amusing memes, and get some free info about where other people are and what they're doing.  (BTW, such a dumb thing to do when you're clearly going to be away from home for a while.)  I rarely post anything myself.

More recently, however, I can't take it all.  Too many people posting too many personal, religious / political views, plus other content that I don't agree with.  In the past I might have just un-followed those folks, but I've decided those people deserve less.  So.....

I've started to block those who frequently and consistently post that stuff.  I'm not interested in their boring status updates, and I'm sure they don't care about my infrequent ones -- but just in case, they won't see them.  It was a small act on my part, but it actually felt pretty good to do it.

I didn't expect that feeling, but I felt that way nonetheless.  It was nice to take control of the content, and in a way, set a price of admission for other people to see mine.

The Drive West

 A few years ago, I documented a solo drive on Interstate 80 from Des Moines to eastern Pennsylvania, on a road trip to Philadelphia.  This week, I did the opposite, a solo drive from Philadelphia to Des Moines.  I intentionally took a different route back via a few different interstate roads -- here's my summary:

* In Pennsylvania, Interstate 76 doubles as the Pennsylvania Turnpike.  The eastern half is mundane until your reach Harrisburg, where the terrain takes on the Allegheny Mountain range to the border.  You actually go through three fairly long tunnels carved out of those mountains.

* Who knew that as I-76 morphs into Interstate 70, you drive through just a few miles of West Virginia before entering Ohio?  I didn't.

* I-70 through Ohio isn't memorable, not even going through Columbus -- it's not like you see their famous zoo, or any of Ohio State University.  The closest thing to interesting is near Dayton, where you come quite close to Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, which you can't see, either.

* The interstate through Indiana is equally boring, except for Indianapolis.  It turns out the quickest way to get from I-70 to Interstate 74 is by taking the road that goes through Speedway, Indiana, right by the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  As you might expect, seemingly every business around it uses the word 'Speedway' in it.

* Once in Illinois and back on Central Time, the super-flat drive quickly goes through a bunch of college towns: Champaign (University of Illinois), Normal (Illinois State), and Peoria (Bradley).  Seems like a bunch of places not to stop right now, as college kids become potential COVID-19 super-spreaders.

* Just west of the Quad Cities, it's time to make a final stop at the I-80 Truck Stop near Walcott, the largest truck stop in the country.  It's a tourist attraction.  It even has a trucking museum....I'm just saying.

A Pod Would Be Good For You

Now that it's August 2020, it's time to take a vacation from writing about topics related to pandemics and politics.  I'm going to write about another 'p' word instead -- podcasts.

With a lack of original content currently being made by TV and movie studios, podcasts have become a go-to for original digital content.  There are so many podcasts available now, most of them free to hear as long as you don't mind skipping over some advertising.

Podcasts might be about sports, music, comedy, politics, economics, and so forth.  I've listened to podcasts in all of those genres, but I've currently settled on a couple that I try to listen to weekly, each about 50 minutes long.

It isn't always easy to keep up with the content, especially since I don't have a commute to work. I try to listen on bike rides or at the edges of the day.  The thing is, it doesn't take 50 minutes to listen to them, since you can make the audio run at 1.5x or 2x speed.

My #1 podcast, one that I've listened to for years, is still Freakonomics Radio.  Like the best selling books that preceded it, the author / host uses economic theory to explore the hidden side of topics.  It surely won't appeal to everyone, but for me it's very informative, not to mention intellectually stimulating.

It remains to be seen if the podcasting boom is temporary or permanent.  It's become a very crowded space.  There's only so much advertising to go around in a bad economy, and eventually the original TV and motion picture apparatus will return.

BLM v COVID

Amidst the chaos created by the COVID-19 pandemic and America’s failed federal response to it, we’ve had another major, culture-shifting series of events that has changed how the nation deals with issues of race.  I’ll reference to it as the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement.

BLM has been around for years, in response to over-aggressive and often fatal police interactions with black men and women.  More recently, a series of these avoidable, deadly interactions has been captured on video by either security cameras or individuals, the most notable being the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis.

The BLM movement is now everywhere, manifested in large protests across the country.  White people are now beginning to understand the systemic, often unseen and unrecognized racism that pervades in the U.S.  There’s been a renewed effort to eliminate not only the racism, but the symbols of it, including things like the confederate flag and confederate statues.

Of course, ‘fixing’ 300 years of systemic racism isn’t going to happen overnight.  There’s still BLM resistance from the overt and covert white supremacy folks, and from the president, although saying that is redundant.  The current federal government, along with some states, would still much prefer to maintain the status quo privileges of the white Christian male.

What's equally infuriating about it is the simpleton argument from the opposition that 'all lives matter' as if that negates the BLM cause.  Here's the best analogy I've seen to counter this:  If your house is on fire, should the fire department come and pour water on all the houses on your street?  Because all houses matter, right?  Of course all houses matter, but the one to focus on is the one that's on fire.  How hard is this for people to understand? 

Private businesses will have to lead on this for now, as individuals are drawn to those showing more action, especially with their dollars.  Following the money – it’s the American Way.

When we look back on 2020, we’ll primarily consider the pandemic and how it changed society.  However, the longer lasting impact of 2020 will be how the BLM changed the way people view racism.

The Stages Of Grief For Celebrations

One of the first college classes I took was Intro to Psychology.  It's the kind of basic class you want to take if you have an undeclared major or an elective to fill, which is probably why it was mainly filled with freshmen and seniors.

It was an easy class, generally only requiring memorization for success, but it's surprising how much of it I still remember.  One of those things is the psychological stages of grief:  Denial, Anger, Bargaining, Depression, and Acceptance.

[Technically, these were identified by psychiatrist Elisabeth Kubler-Ross as the stages of grief for the terminally ill in her book On Death and Dying (yes, I even remember that!) but over time they've been attributed to more than just terminal illness.]

I've often applied these stages of grief to other things.  I once did an entire presentation to a large group about the years-long need for additional financing for a project, and I used the stages of grief as a simile of sorts.  I suggested that in the past year, some in the room had moved from denial to anger to bargaining, but most hadn't yet made it to depression much less acceptance.  So I told them I was taking it upon myself to depress them that day as much as possible so they'd get to acceptance faster.

Recently, I've been applying the stages of grief to how people are treating aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.  For example, we've got an executive branch of federal government that denied it, then got angry as it happened, and is so corrupt that it will never get beyond bargaining over it while people die.

However, it's particularly applicable to those who have/had planned gatherings of many people, whether it be graduation parties, baby showers, or weddings.  First, there's a denial that the event can't happen.  Then anger about how a rare pandemic could get in the way.  Then there's the stage most are in, which is bargaining for a way to still make the event happen against needlessly exposing guests to the virus.  Of course, this also includes bargaining with vendors over monetary deposits that may have been made.

Not everyone has managed to get through to the depression stage, and then ultimate acceptance that the event either isn't going to happen, or won't be happening anywhere close to the original plan.  And not all of those who've managed to make it to acceptance are done; those proceeding with alternate plans are finding themselves right back at denial when those revised arrangements are also partly stymied.

It's a terrible year to have planned for any type of celebration, much less to try to execute said celebration.  I'm glad I'm not in that group, but if I was, I'd try to get through the stages of grief as soon as possible.

Two Things At Once

If I had to wager on it, I would have bet a lot on something related to the COVID-19 pandemic as the top story on non-conspiracy news outlets for many more weeks / months.  Only some huge natural disaster or mass killing event could possibly keep that from happening.

It's a bet I would have quickly lost.

All it took was a video of a bad Minneapolis cop slowly killing an already-detained black man by choking off his airway.  Now we have protests and quasi-riots across America, bringing attention to both overt and covert criminal racial discrimination that still exists after 250 years.  (This is made even worse by having a mentally-ill U.S. president stirring the pot with his own versions of racism and divisive rhetoric.  Apparently, calling a pandemic a hoax for weeks hasn't killed enough people already.)

As has been the norm over the past few years, people are turning this into a combative, binary decision.  That is, you either support the Black Lives Matter movement, or you support the police.  This is incredibly stupid, because both things are possible!

Human beings can support two things (even more!) at the same time, even when those things seem to be opposites.  Here, we have to support persons or color in their quest to be treated equally under the law, while at the same time supporting appropriate enforcement of those laws.

We're doing it now in an even larger way, as we battle a once in a lifetime pandemic with differing views on how that should be done.  For example, it's OK to support wearing a mask and still support opening the economy.

But again, some want to frame all national decisions as a binary, political win/lose.  It's dumb and counterproductive to look at everything through such a political lens.  Unfortunately, that's what our current, leadership-less executive branch has been perpetuating,

Since we have a leadership void at the federal level, the only way to peacefully accomplish any of our collective goals is from the bottom-up.  People must ignore the extremists, be responsible for taking care of others, and remember to vote out the unqualified, arrogant, complicit, idiots who've been in charge for the past few years.

Dear Graduating Class of 2020

Although it may be the most difficult time to be a high school or college graduate EVER, those kids still expect some words of wisdom, as in past years.  Let's get to it.....

To the hard-luck graduates of 2020:

This must really suck.

It’s hard to imagine how it could be worse than ‘right now’ for a high school or college graduate, during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Not being able to make memories from that last month or so in school?  Not being able to enjoy all of the traditions and hijinks of those final days of classes?  Not being involved in all of the pomp and circumstance of graduation week?   Not being able to have all that attention from friends and relatives at graduation ceremonies and parties, nor collecting the graduation presents?

This must really suck bad.

And there’s no getting it back, either.  Oh sure, you might eventually have a ceremony of some sort.  And you’ll probably get those graduation gifts down the road.  But all of the fun – that’s just gone, and there’s nothing you can do about it.

This must really, really suck bad.

To make matters worse (especially if you’re a college graduate), you’re entering in to the worst job market of the past 90 years.  Frankly, unless you have mad skills at developing pharmaceuticals for treating or curing viruses, there isn’t much out there for you right now – unless your life’s goal is to work in an on-line shopping fulfillment warehouse, a fast food restaurant, or a slaughterhouse.

This s-u-u-u-u-u-u-u-u-u-u-c-k-s.

Can anything be salvaged from this incredible misfortune to make you feel better?  Sure, there are lots of things that might perk you up.  For example, since you’ll either be unemployed or taking online college classes or both, your parents are a lot more likely to let you save money by living with them rent free.  (Actually, I could only think of that one thing, and it has as many downsides as upsides.)

Let’s face it, Class of 2020 – you’ve drawn the short straw.  Civilization, with an assist from national governments, has failed you.  You only have one option:  Determination.

Put your mind to it, and you’re going to get through this, along with the knowledge that you can succeed even when starting from one of the lowest points in United States history.  That’s a great rallying point, assuming you don’t use it to start a second Civil War, and further assuming we still have a functioning society.

Years from now, you aren’t going to be that upset about the events that didn’t occur, but you might be upset that you didn’t use the events that did occur as a springboard for what might have been.

Berky Meeting Nuggets 2020 -- Pandemic Edition

For the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic got real in the U.S., an event I really wanted to attend was ruined.  It was the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting in Omaha, which only offered online streaming of this year's meeting.

You can count on the fingers of one hand the number of times in the past 20+ years I haven't personally attended 'Woodstock for Capitalists.'  It's more festival than meeting, taking up an entire arena and adjoining convention center, although the centerpiece is always Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger sitting on a stark stage answering questions and making comments for about six hours.

I watched the entire stream, which this year consisted of Buffett and heir-apparent Greg Able talking on that same stage for almost five hours.  (How does the 89-year-old Buffett do this, or anyone for that matter, without taking a break?)  It wasn't the same, of course, but they tried.

The main thing missing was Vice-Chair Charlie Munger, who didn't participate at all this year.  The highlight of most Berky meetings is listening to Munger's acerbic wit as he answers questions, usually ones for which Buffett probably said the same thing in a more extended, eloquent way.

I don't really have any specific nuggets this year.  Every question, answer, and comment was pandemic-related in one way or another.  Buffett was optimistic on America's long-term future, having already survived a civil war and a years-long economic depression.  However, he didn't sound very optimistic about the next year.

He was probably just bummed that he couldn't have the usual fun annual shareholders meeting this year, and given his age, their aren't many left for him to lead.

And clearly, we both missed Charlie.

All Fo(u)r Twenty

Today is 4/20, making it a perfect time to again comment on the movement to decriminalize and expand the availability of cannabis in America.  You know, marijuana, the drug that is safer than alcohol but treated like cocaine.

We're up to ten states now that have legalized marijuana in some non-medical way.  Ten now, but what will it take to get to twenty and beyond?

Unfortunately, while the polls continue to show an increasing majority of Americans support marijuana legalization, the federal government and most states still don't allow it.  They don't even allow medical marijuana usage, which has an even larger majority of American support.

So, what gives?  Let's just use my home (red) state of Iowa as an example.  It has a Republican governor and legislature, so even though legalization is popular overall, it isn't so popular inside their conservative constituencies.  The Rs basically have a bend-but-don't-break attitude, where they act like they're doing something without actually doing anything.

For example, Iowa does some medical cannabis usage through a few approved dispensaries, but prescriptions can only be filled with minimal amounts of THC.  It's so little, in fact, Iowa isn't even considered a medical marijuana state.  This in spite of calls by doctors and pharmacists to increase the maximum THC dosage.

This is the worst, dumbest way to do things, because lots of effort produces zero positive results.  People / patients aren't getting better, and the state gets no tax revenue.  The fact that a neighboring state (Illinois) this year legalized cannabis just makes it even worse / dumber, since motivated Iowans simply drive across the border.  The result is, the people get what they want, but another state benefits from the commerce.

In the end, Iowa and other non-cannabis states would be better off financially just not allowing any marijuana usage, rather than limiting it the way they are.  Of course, if they legalized it, those states would see a multi-million dollar tax revenue bonanza -- but since the Rs don't want to look so bad politically, they do things one drip at a time, showcasing the insanity of their ways

One small irony in all of this is that Iowa does consider its dispensaries to be essential businesses, so they remain open during the COVID-19 pandemic.  Wouldn't it be nice if there was an effective, natural drug that could help everyone through the pandemic, not only physically but mentally?  And regulated selling of that same drug could create millions in tax revenue being lost by the state due to the same pandemic?

Maybe by next 4/20.

Compliance Versus Defiance

In the midst of the enormous health crisis that is the coronavirus pandemic, it’s sad there is so much political fire being exchanged.  It’s actually necessary due to the disgraceful way the executive branch has denied the pandemic and mismanaged the response, but it’s still sad.

Not to pile on the sadness, but at the 30,000 foot level, there is a least one new political truth that has been brought into sharp focus.  That is, that Democrats have become the party of compliance, while Republicans have become the party of defiance.

It hasn’t been like this since, well, ever.  Democrats are supposed to be the liberal ones, fighting against the status quo.  Does anybody around here remember the battles (both real and figurative) of the 1960s and 1970s, not to mention the progressive, Medicare-for-all movements of the now?  And Republicans have always been the party of don’t-change conservatism, supposedly more obedient to the law.

The pandemic changed that.  When it came time to follow the advice of the medical experts, to take precautions, to stay home, to avoid people…..it was Democrats who were quick to comply.  Meanwhile, led by the misinformation of their chief executive and conservative media, the Republicans were slow to act.  They thought they were smarter than the experts, who weren’t going to tell them what to do.

Only three or so weeks into this thing, we know compliance saves lives, while defiance costs lives.  While it’s been awful to have watched this happening in real time, there may be one very small consolation – defiance is more likely to thin the herd of the defiant ones, at least for the future.

A Tale Of Two Viruses

As I write this, we are in the midst of a global pandemic, brought about by a novel virus with no existing vaccine or treatment.  This virus sickens virtually everyone who comes into contact with it.  It does not care about race, religion, gender, sexual orientation, financial class, political affiliation, or nationality.  It is not a hoax.  All of this has led to an economic meltdown of historic proportions, as worldwide people are asked to abide the directives of governments that cannot be trusted to provide proper information or materials.

Also as I write this, we are in the midst of a domestic crisis, brought about by a narcissistic virus with no existing vaccine or treatment.  This virus sickens virtually everyone who comes into contact with it.  It only cares if you are white, Christian, male, straight, upper class, Republican, and American.  It is a total hoax.  All of this has led to a political meltdown of historic proportions, as American citizens are asked to abide the directives of a government that cannot be trusted to provide proper information or materials.

The virus I refer to in the first paragraph is COVID-19.  The virus I refer to in the second paragraph is Donald Trump.

Let's hope one of these viruses overcomes the other as soon as possible.

Opposite Day(s)

The coronavirus is spreading across the continents.  The stock market and interest rates are tanking.  This is a good time for some perspective (on the markets, not on the virus).....

When stocks decline sharply, the steady flow of negative news reports drives many people to flee the markets out of fear -- and miss out on potential gains as financial markets inevitably regain their strength over the next few months and years.

Right now, we're actually going through the third(!) stock market drop of 10% or more in the past 13 months.  The other times, as well as all of the other times before that, the markets recovered and went on to new highs.  Yet people are still fearful.

So how do you keep the fear from prevailing?

Simple.  Long-term investors should do the opposite of what they want to do.  That is, instead of watching the markets and reacting, they should ignore the markets and do nothing.

It's OK to not check your investment / 401k / 403b account balance when the market is falling.  It’s also OK to not watch or listen to financial news.  In fact, turning off the financial news is the smartest anyone can do if it keeps them from making mistakes based on emotional decisions.

The real contrarians will actually do something -- they'll buy into the falling markets, and of course, sell into the gaining ones.  They're the smart ones.

Be smart.  Be brave.  Be opposite.

Caucus Of Death

Disaster.  Debacle.  Embarrassment.  Fiasco.

You may think I'm talking about the current presidential administration.  While those words definitely all fit that, I'm actually referring to another political item:  The 2020 Iowa Caucuses.

This isn't going to be a review of what went wrong. [Technology.]  Nor will it be a prediction about the future of Iowa's first-in-the-nation presidential election year event.  [Terminal.]  It's to clarify something the national media doesn't cover:

Most Iowans do not give a damn about preserving their first-in-the-nation caucus status.

The only folks who really ever cared were / are mainly political activists and wonks, who constitute a very small percentage of the population.  I'll also throw in the hotel and restaurant industry and a few other small main street businesses, which enjoyed higher sales from all of the extra people roaming the state off and on for months.

Yay for the economic growth of a few, on a quadrennial basis.

So for anyone who thinks Iowans will be universally sad to see the caucuses abandoned, no worries!  We're actually looking forward to having fewer political commercials bombard us on both traditional and digital media platforms.  We're looking forward to having more elbow room at the Iowa State Fair.  We're looking forward to the calm.

The Iowa caucuses have always been a slightly goofy anachronism in the privacy-challenged digital age.  It may well be time for them to die.

In which case, not that many Iowans will be crying at the funeral.

A Candidate Guide, Circa 2020

Next week, Iowa hosts its semi-famous political caucuses.  The attention this year is even more overwhelming than usual, thanks to a toxic political climate and social media.

It's time for my quadrennial assessment of the remaining candidates who are spending time in Iowa, this year limited to the Democratic Party since the Republican party is set on nominating the current ignorant, corrupt, and impeachable president.  In alphabetical order:

Joe Biden -- The safest, most moderate pick for the Dems.  A known commodity with the best chance of winning the electoral votes in the states that matter most.  He would be an more formidable candidate if he was several years younger.

Pete Buttigieg -- His moderate temperament and views, along with his military service, make him interesting.  A lack of political baggage is also a plus, but a lack of experience is a negative.  It's very surprising that he's made it this far.

Amy Klobuchar -- Another moderate whose views are reasonable and nationally appealing, and she has a neighboring state, midwestern likability to her.  However, that likability doesn't translate into passionate support for her candidacy.

Bernie Sanders -- He's been in this race before, so he knows the issues, has refined his message, and has the name recognition.  Has popularity with younger voters given his populist message, but that probably hurts more than helps in a national election.

Tom Steyer -- The 'attack Trump' strategy has appeal with some, but everyone knows he's just in it for issue advocacy and name recognition, right?

Elizabeth Warren -- The most intellectually appealing candidate, with a detailed plan for almost  everything.  Her energy and experience also help, but she limits her chances by being too far left on a few issues, namely college debt and health care.

Andrew Yang -- Doesn't seem there's any chance he'd win with no experience, but everyone should listen to what he's saying about the future of the U.S. workforce and economy.

Not mentioned is Mike Bloomberg, who isn't campaigning in Iowa but who could have an impact on the actual nominee, assuming it isn't him.

Less Brutal Vikings, A Short List

Two years ago I wrote about a rare thrilling playoff victory by the Minnesota Vikings.  This is a favorite professional team of mine for which I’ve documented many brutal losses over the years, but as I said then, I’d never bothered to come up with a list of big wins.

The Vikings just had another exciting playoff victory a week ago, so I decided it was time to come up with my list of the five greatest Vikings wins in history.  Let’s just say it wasn’t easy, because in the last 40 years, there aren’t that many.

1)  2018 NFC Divisional playoff game at home versus the New Orleans Saints.  This game is now known as the Minneapolis Miracle.

2) 2020 NFC Wild Card playoff game in OT at New Orleans Saints.  I know, the Saints again two years later.  An exciting, unexpected win, but it’s still small consolation for losing the 2010 NFC Championship game there in OT.

3) 1980 regular season game at home versus the Cleveland Browns.  The Vikings won on a two-play, 80-yard drive with a hitch-and-pitch, then a long Hail Mary TD pass to Ahmad Rashad on the last play of the game, clinching the division and a playoff spot.

4) 2004 Wild Card playoff game at the Green Bay Packers.  Memorable for beating their arch-rival in a road playoff game, but even more memorable when receiver Randy Moss caught a game-clinching TD pass, and then faked mooned the fans.

5) 1976 NFC Championship game at home versus the Los Angeles Rams.  As of now, it's the the last time the Vikings won a game to advance to the Super Bowl.  It was a great team, with great kick-blocking special teams, but one that would lose the Super Bowl to the Oakland Raiders 32-14.  And they haven’t been back since.