2020

Another year is ending, this one also concluding a decade.  It would be a good time for a retrospective piece on the past ten years, but lots of other entities are doing that.  I'll just stick to my usual review of the things I wanted to have happen this year, and consider some things I would like to see happen in 2020.  We'll again start with the prior year's list, with comments in ALL CAPS:

The resignation or impeachment of a mentally unstable and unqualified president -- again, no names.
IMPEACHMENT HAPPENED.  I CARRIED THIS OVER FORM THE PRIOR YEAR, WHICH TURNED OUR TO BE VERY PRESCIENT.

The electric vehicle becoming America's fastest growing (by percentage) seller.
THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE U.K. BUT NOT IN THE U.S.

Alabama and Clemson and New England to have poor football seasons.
THEY WEREN'T POOR, BUT ALABAMA AND NEW ENGLAND AT LEAST HAD DOWN YEARS.

Some major medical breakthrough, perhaps a vaccine to eliminate a dread disease.
NO.

Consistent, moderate summer rain in central Iowa.
YES.

A priest actually arrested and charged and jailed for past sexual abuse.
THIS DID HAPPEN IN PENNSYLVANIA.  IT WAS TOO PREDICTABLE, AND NOT NEARLY ENOUGH.

More cities allowing app-based scooter rentals.
WHILE MORE CITIES DID ADOPT THEM, OTHER CITIES STARTED TO RESTRICT THEM.

Another scandal that ruins another Fox (News) TV personality.
NOT REALLY, ALTHOUGH THE PRIOR SCANDALS AND CURRENT PROPAGANDA AT FOX DID CAUSE SHEP SMITH TO LEAVE.

U.S. restaurants that allow payment by app, OR that bring the credit card reader to your table.THIS STILL HASN'T RECEIVED WIDESPREAD U.S. ADOPTION, WHICH IS SORT OF INFURIATING.

Me traveling to one of the five continental states in which I've never set foot.I WAS ABLE TO CROSS OFF NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA FROM MY LIST.  DOWN TO IDAHO, MICHIGAN, MONTANA, AND NORTH DAKOTA.  (IT WAS ACTUALLY SIX.).

Now, for 2020 I'd like to see these things happen:

Me traveling to the final four U.S. states in which I've never set foot.

A new president-elect and a corresponding surviving, independent, democratic republic.

More chances to make a hole-in-one (which means more time to play golf).

Widespread acceptance of plant-based meats on restaurant menus.

The Minnesota Twins to break their streak of 16 consecutive playoff game losses.

Consolidation in the video streaming service industry.

A Summer Olympics without scandal.

Greater federal regulation of Facebook, and less people using it to show me pictures of their food.

A new artist who brings back the sound of classic rock.

That I never order from a bar that tells me it has no Crown Royal Apple.

Correlation Is Not Causation

A few years have passed since I’ve blogged about investing.  I used to post more about it when I worked at a firm where I put myself in charge of writing a quarterly investment newsletter of sorts; then I’d basically copy and paste what I’d already written.

One of the themes of that prior investment writing I did was how there was little, if any, correlation between how the markets perform over long periods and virtually any other specific individual thing.  Investing history and statistics prove that if X happens, it does not impact the future of Y.

The best current example of this investing correlation mistake is people who want to correlate the political parties with stock market performance.  The fact is, there has never been a correlation between those two things.  [Note to those Republicans who still believe those things are related, you actually want a Democrat in office, because the stock market went up more during three democratic presidential terms than for any republican presidency.]

Another very broad example of this investing correlation fallacy involves technical trading, which is buying or selling based on nothing more than the grid lines on a chart. For some, these simple securities price charts signal a breakout up or down, ergo an investing opportunity.  It's amazing how many otherwise smart people believe in this type of technical 'strategy' when it has nothing to do with the underlying company.  It's stupid.

This all makes me think, what other things do people want to positively or negatively correlate that have no real correlation?  There are so many, but here are a few that annoy me:

* Scholastic grades and intelligence.

* Hours spent at the office and work.

* Owning a Fitbit (or other electronic health tracking device) and weight loss.