What You Said / What I Heard On The Bike

For over ten years now, my primary mode of exercise has been cycling.  My slowly-breaking down body won't let me run, and anyway, the time goes by fast when traveling the roads and trails to see things from a different perspective.

Not everyone likes to bike, however, and even fewer seem to like the idea of sharing the road when they're driving past bikers.  Most of the time, this manifests itself by a car passenger either gesturing or yelling or both at me in an unkind manner.  This frankly doesn't happen that often, maybe once in every 15 road rides.

Which brings me to the MLK holiday, when a near 50 degree dry winter day allowed me to bike outdoors rather than on an indoor trainer.  Near the end of that ride, I'm cruising along a suburban street - mind you this is a 4-lane street, one with plenty of room for bikes and vehicles to peacefully coexist.  Next thing I know, a beat-up mid-sized car drives by, both windows down, and the lone passenger in the front seat yells something to the effect of, "Effing bikers, use the effing sidewalk!"

Let's deconstruct this message using a technique I refer to as 'What you said / What I heard."  Based on all of the elements of the story I've mentioned, and adding a few basic societal assumptions, here's what I heard:

"Me and my twenty-something year old buddy don't have anything to do today.  Not because it's a federal holiday, but because we're too lazy and/or stupid to have or even look for a job.  So after waking up at our respective moms' houses just before noon and playing Xbox for a couple of hours, we decided to go cruise the streets of Des Moines looking for trouble.  Can't really do anything else since neither of us has any money, and because we already used the collective $10 our moms gave us to buy cigarettes.  That's why we have the windows open in the car you know, even though it's less than 50 degrees out and we're freezing our asses off.  I mean, we don't want our cigarette smoke to ruin the resale value of my mom's borrowed 1987 Chevy sedan.  Anyway, I'm going to yell at this biker up here, because I'm dumb, lazy, out of shape, and my life is so miserable that it will somehow make me feel better."

And that's just what I thought I heard in the few seconds after this happened!  You can only imagine how much more there is to the truth.

In conclusion, I'd just like to generally say that when I'm on my bike on the road, I do my best to let vehicles get by easily.  After all, I know who wins in the car versus biker accident.  In the meantime, you don't need to yell at me, you'll be able to get where you're going just fine.

I'd also like to specifically say to the two losers in that car from my story, don't worry, things will get better.  Just remember the sage words of Judge Smails from the movie Caddyshack: "Well, the world needs ditch diggers, too!"

Grindin' - The Sequel

A little over a year ago, I wrote about the "grinding" controversy at our local public high school.  By now, you'd think Iowa's school administrators would have moved on from policing how kids dance to other things, like how to raise their academic standards or maybe how to keep kids from skipping class.

This has not happened.  In fact, this week administrators from the largest high school in the state, West Des Moines Valley, announced a strict new 'no-grinding' policy for their school dances.  The principal is quoted as saying, "Students should face their dancing partners, and any dancing that involves groping, grinding, or public displays of affection will result in those students geing asked to leave the dance."  (Groping?)  Here again, dance attendees must sign a pledge that they will adhere to the policy.

One year later, and this dirty dancing debate is funnier/dumber than ever!  Like I said the last time this came up, it's really just one level removed from the movie Footloose, which ironically was made into a sequel just last year.  The only difference is, this is about the kind of dancing, rather than dancing altogether.

Strip this thing down and what do you got?  You've got school administrators wasting valuable taxpayer time and money trying to be surrogate parents for a bunch of hormonal teenagers, most of whom already spend hours away from school watching TV or playing video games that are far more sexually suggestive or violent than 'grinding' ever will be.

I get that schools expect appropriate behavior at school functions.  What I don't get, and never will, is how school officials think they are qualified to act as a moral compass, as if they were the students' parents.

My solution?  Screen the famous 'Evolution of Dance' web video for the student body and splice in some 'grinding' footage.  If it looks silly on the internet, maybe kids won't want to do it anymore!

Piss On The Taliban

This one is for all the bleeding hearts out there who are outraged (outraged, I tell you!) over the just-released video showing a U.S. Marine sniper team urinating on dead bodies in Afghanistan.

Are you kidding me!?  The only outrage in this whole thing should be directed at the namby-pamby civilian and military personnel who are making the dead people the victims, and the U.S. troops the enemy.

This is not torture.  This is not Abu Ghraib.  This is a group of Marines who are probably damn tired of being away from their families in godforsaken country full of people trying to kill them (possibly including the pissees), and who want to exact a little bit of mental revenge.

Is this really so hard for us to accept?  I can imagine it now, one of these Marines says, "Screw this place.  These people are trying to kill us, and nobody at home gives a damn because they're too busy trying to decide whether to buy the 'grande' or the 'venti' today.  We got them before they got us, and since there won't be any parades, let's celebrate our victory by pissing on them!"  And the other Marines say, "Hell yes!  Great idea!"  And finally one of the dumber Marines says, "Yeah, and let's put it on video so we can show everybody back home some day!"

I get that the U.S. / Obama administration has to officially condemn this conduct.  We don't want to come off looking like barbarians.  The thing of it is, the Taliban and other radical Islamic terrorist group are going to think that about Americans regardless of what we do.  They would kill us in a second if given the chance, no questions asked.

What I don't need to hear are any religious scholars out there suggesting that somehow the U.S. is desecrating Islam.  Does anyone really believe these Marines were urinating on these people as a symbol of their hatred for Muslims?  Of course not, they couldn't care less about their religious beliefs.  The Marines are simply showing their disrespect for some people who probably just tried to kill them.

This is war.  There are no rules in war, at least not in combat.  Did we follow any rules when we captured/killed Bin Laden?  If there were rules, the U.S. would surely lose the so-called war on terror, because the enemy sure as hell isn't following them.

I hope the way this plays out is, soon there will be a groundswell of support for these Marines.  Most Americans are going to see through the pious rhetoric and realize that no one was actually harmed in the shooting of this video - although someone was clearly harmed beforehand.  And piss on them!

It's Tough To Make Predictions

This is the time of the year when the so-called investment ‘experts’ make their predictions for the coming year.  While this information may be interesting, the predictions are actually much more entertaining when reviewed a year later.

Take the late 2010 Barclays Capital Global Macro Survey of more than 2,000 institutional investors.  The consensus pick for the best performing asset class in 2011 was equities, with a predicted 15% annual gain for the S&P 500 stock index.  Less than 10% of those surveyed said fixed income would be the best performing asset class.

And...wait for it...Surprise!  Fixed income was easily the best performing asset class of the year, with the Barclays aggregate bond index gaining almost 8% in 2011.  Conversely, the year-to-date return for the S&P 500 stock index (including dividends) was 2%.  On a risk-adjusted basis, the disparity is even greater.

Remember, these were the forecasts of big institutional investors – major financial institutions with armies of analysts, mountains of data, and sophisticated forecasting tools.  If the ‘experts’ can't get the broad asset class movements right, what chance do they (or anyone) have of correctly and consistently predicting the performance of individual securities?

In short, they have no chance, but year after year, that doesn't stop them from trying.

What are the lessons to take from this information?

1)  Don’t invest based on economic forecasts.  They are simply media-hyped guesswork.  Over time, unforeseen events are sure to invalidate certain assumptions used in those same forecasts.

2)  There is no substitute for low-cost diversification.  While equity markets were rocky this past year, fixed income markets provided excellent returns.  By staying diversified both across and within asset classes, and keeping investment costs to a minimum, smart investors can enjoy gains now and still be positioned to reap returns when riskier assets come back into favor.

3)  The past is NOT prologue.  As an investment strategy, chasing past returns is no better than chasing predicted returns.  Just because fixed income outperformed the equity market in 2011 is no reason to believe it will do the same in 2012.  Investors should determine their risk tolerance, and not change investment direction unless that tolerance changes.

In the end, when it comes to ‘expert’ forecasts on the direction of investment markets, it’s probably best to remember the words of Yogi Berra:  “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

2012

The beginning/end of every year gives everyone a chance to make resolutions or predictions for the next 12 months.  Instead of doing either of those things, which will inevitably come back to haunt, I'll just set out a few things I'd like to see in 2012.

I'd like to see:

-Me take more time off.

-The insurance industry get into trouble for the individual products they sell to people as 'investments.'

-A warmer and earlier Spring.

-The Minnesota Twins and Vikings not being among the worst teams in their respective sports.  Talk about low expectations!

-The rejection of social conservatism.

-The rejection of any further extensions to to unemployment benefits.  In other words, that my tax money stops being used to pay people to not work.

-Jersey Shore get canceled when one or more of the cast is arrested and/or goes to rehab.  (OK, that is actually a prediction, not exactly something I want to see happen.)

-The Mayans exposed as just goofing around with their calendar.