If I made a list of the most difficult things to do in the world, it might include being the U.S. president, or climbing Mt. Everest. But near the very top of that list might be something you wouldn't expect: Being a die-hard Minnesota Vikings football fan.
After another year of emotional investment, the Vikings pulled the rug out from under their fans again by losing the 2010 NFC Championship game to the New Orleans Saints in a game the Vikes absolutely dominated. Turnovers begat another brutal loss in a lifetime of brutal losses.
So in a therapuetic attempt to feel better by talking/writing it out, I now give you my list of Top 5 most crushing losses in Vikings history:
1. 1999 NFC Championship game in OT at home versus the Altanta Falcons. This was the Gary Andersen only-missed-field-goal-of-the-year game. Vikes were the best team in the NFL that year hands down, and didn't even make the Super Bowl.
2. 1975 NFC playoff game at home versus the Dallas Cowboys. This was the original Hail Mary pass game. I was 11 years old, still optimistic about life, until this happened and I became forever scarred and cynical.
3. 2010 NFC Championship game in OT at New Orleans Saints. A lot like the 1999 game, but perhaps not quite as hideous since they were not favored to win. Still, the clearly better team lost, and it's brutal enough to make the top 3.
4. 2003 regular season finale game at Arizona Cardinals. Lost on 28-yard TD pass as time expired, after being up by 11 with less than two minutes to go. Knocked them out of division title and playoffs after being in first place the entire year. (And allowed the then-Brett Favre-led Green Bay Packers to go the the playoffs.)
5. 1988 NFC Championship game at Washington Redskins. This was the strike-shortened year, and the Vikes had the best 'regular' player record in the NFL going in (but had to play on the road because they were 0-3 using replacement players). Darrin Nelson flat-out dropped a short pass from Wade Wilson at the goal line late in the game to seal the loss.
These games, and many more, make being a Vikings fan one of the most difficult things to do in the world. So why continue?
It's a mystery of faith.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
A Good Day For Marijuana
Dateline: Harrisburg, Pa. - New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine on Monday (1/18/2010) signed a law legalizing medical marijuana for the chronically ill.
You can now officially add New Jersey to the list of far-too-few states that have removed their head from their butt and allowed medicinal marijuana.
I've previously blogged about legalizing pot altogether (http://streffblog.blogspot.com/2009/08/medicine-and-marijuana.html) so I won't go into that more universal argument here. Suffice it to say that it takes an incredible amount of backassward thinking for governments to allow other controlled substances (e.g. oxycontin) to be prescribed (and often abused) to treat illness and disease, but not a less potent one like marijuana that has proven to be effective in treating neuropathic pain.
Makes me want to have a stiff alcoholic drink, which of course is a mind-altering substance readily available to me even without a prescription!
You can now officially add New Jersey to the list of far-too-few states that have removed their head from their butt and allowed medicinal marijuana.
I've previously blogged about legalizing pot altogether (http://streffblog.blogspot.com/2009/08/medicine-and-marijuana.html) so I won't go into that more universal argument here. Suffice it to say that it takes an incredible amount of backassward thinking for governments to allow other controlled substances (e.g. oxycontin) to be prescribed (and often abused) to treat illness and disease, but not a less potent one like marijuana that has proven to be effective in treating neuropathic pain.
Makes me want to have a stiff alcoholic drink, which of course is a mind-altering substance readily available to me even without a prescription!
Thursday, January 14, 2010
The Conan Solution
For the record, I have always been a fan of Conan O'Brien, going back many years during his time on Late Night. Dude is funny, and "If They Mated" was one of the great comedy bits of all time. (Why did he not bring that to the Tonight Show? Was it someone else's intellectual property?)
I thought it was awesome when he took over the Tonight Show. Jay Leno was fine, but not edgy enough, and often boring. Oh, he had some funny stuff, including "Headlines" and "Jaywalking" but Conan is funnier, and superior at sketches, improvisation, and interviews. People will get used to him, right.
So I think this whole NBC deal about giving Leno back the Tonight Show slot is crap. Leno agreed to leave years ago, then decided against it, so NBC created an earlier show for him, and that hasn't worked. Now NBC is basically canceling his show - so how is it they have to find him another place?
Look Jay, thanks for your years of service, but when a show gets canceled you don't automatically get another show, much less your old show back. It's time for you and NBC to bite the bullet and let Conan keep the Tonight Show at its regular time, if for no other reason than common decency. Conan's staff uprooted their lives and moved from New York to California to do this......for god's sake Leno, find another show yourself! Be stand up about it and fall on your sword!
As I write this, it doesn't look like that's going to happen, so here's the best alternative for Conan: Forget the Fox Network (too conservative, and not really a network per se) and go to Comedy Central to take the slot immediately following Daily Show and Colbert Report. I might never watch anything else for those two hours. Yeah, it'll be a much smaller audience, but a devoted one, and Conan go back to doing some things he did on Late Night that he's reluctant to do now.
It's a win/win. For me at least.
I thought it was awesome when he took over the Tonight Show. Jay Leno was fine, but not edgy enough, and often boring. Oh, he had some funny stuff, including "Headlines" and "Jaywalking" but Conan is funnier, and superior at sketches, improvisation, and interviews. People will get used to him, right.
So I think this whole NBC deal about giving Leno back the Tonight Show slot is crap. Leno agreed to leave years ago, then decided against it, so NBC created an earlier show for him, and that hasn't worked. Now NBC is basically canceling his show - so how is it they have to find him another place?
Look Jay, thanks for your years of service, but when a show gets canceled you don't automatically get another show, much less your old show back. It's time for you and NBC to bite the bullet and let Conan keep the Tonight Show at its regular time, if for no other reason than common decency. Conan's staff uprooted their lives and moved from New York to California to do this......for god's sake Leno, find another show yourself! Be stand up about it and fall on your sword!
As I write this, it doesn't look like that's going to happen, so here's the best alternative for Conan: Forget the Fox Network (too conservative, and not really a network per se) and go to Comedy Central to take the slot immediately following Daily Show and Colbert Report. I might never watch anything else for those two hours. Yeah, it'll be a much smaller audience, but a devoted one, and Conan go back to doing some things he did on Late Night that he's reluctant to do now.
It's a win/win. For me at least.
Thursday, January 7, 2010
Ignore The Investment/Media Conspiracy
The New Year always brings predictions of what is to come. In the financial industry, regardless of the time of year, there are plenty of ‘experts’ willing to provide the media with opinions on the future direction of markets.
It is not often appreciated by investors, but there is a cozy relationship between the media and the traditional investing industry. In short, they both want you to believe that certain individuals have uncanny powers of foresight.
For stock and bond analysts, promoting this illusion of insight is helpful, because it justifies their fees and keeps people trading. For the media, the myth that certain remarkable individuals can reliably forecast market prices is helpful, because it provides endless "gee whiz" stories for the readers/viewers who keep the advertising revenue flowing.
The fact is, no matter how smart individual analysts may be, and no matter how much they know about the companies and sectors they follow, in the end they are hostage to unforeseen events. These might include changes in federal laws and regulations, or the discovery of a new technology that renders a previously innovative solution obsolete, or even a breakdown in an obscure area of the mortgage market that unleashes a global meltdown in the banking industry. (Sound familiar?)
The bad news is no one knows what the investment future will hold. The good news is you don't need to know in order to have a successful investment experience. You simply have to rely on a few fundamental principles:
It is impossible to identify superior investment managers in advance.
Capitalism breeds competition, and that makes markets difficult to beat. With millions of participants competing in capital markets, it is hard to identify in advance anyone who can systematically beat the market. Eliminate the risk of choosing the wrong manager by following a low cost, broadly diversified approach that does not rely on stock/bond picking or market timing.
Diversification is the only antidote for uncertainty.
Although diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss, a properly constructed and well-diversified portfolio is a key component of a successful investment experience. Portfolios should be designed to capture certain risks and eliminate others, depending on your preference and capacity for various types of risk.
There is no free lunch. Risk and return are related.
Much like a football player who chooses to play without a helmet, you should not expect to be paid more for taking risks that can easily be avoided. Higher expected returns only come from bearing more risk that cannot be diversified away. Focus on eliminating risks that you should not expect a reward for taking, such as concentrating your portfolio in just a few stocks.
Don't guess. Invest.
Rather than relying on speculation, blind faith, or anecdotal evidence, concentrate on what can be controlled: Managing the transactional costs of investing, reducing the impact of taxes, and taking a long-term view. Design portfolios that are cost effective, tax efficient, and disciplined.
Good investment management is not about media hype or making forecasts. Good investment management is about understanding and managing risk around an overall financial plan.
It is not often appreciated by investors, but there is a cozy relationship between the media and the traditional investing industry. In short, they both want you to believe that certain individuals have uncanny powers of foresight.
For stock and bond analysts, promoting this illusion of insight is helpful, because it justifies their fees and keeps people trading. For the media, the myth that certain remarkable individuals can reliably forecast market prices is helpful, because it provides endless "gee whiz" stories for the readers/viewers who keep the advertising revenue flowing.
The fact is, no matter how smart individual analysts may be, and no matter how much they know about the companies and sectors they follow, in the end they are hostage to unforeseen events. These might include changes in federal laws and regulations, or the discovery of a new technology that renders a previously innovative solution obsolete, or even a breakdown in an obscure area of the mortgage market that unleashes a global meltdown in the banking industry. (Sound familiar?)
The bad news is no one knows what the investment future will hold. The good news is you don't need to know in order to have a successful investment experience. You simply have to rely on a few fundamental principles:
It is impossible to identify superior investment managers in advance.
Capitalism breeds competition, and that makes markets difficult to beat. With millions of participants competing in capital markets, it is hard to identify in advance anyone who can systematically beat the market. Eliminate the risk of choosing the wrong manager by following a low cost, broadly diversified approach that does not rely on stock/bond picking or market timing.
Diversification is the only antidote for uncertainty.
Although diversification neither assures a profit nor guarantees against loss, a properly constructed and well-diversified portfolio is a key component of a successful investment experience. Portfolios should be designed to capture certain risks and eliminate others, depending on your preference and capacity for various types of risk.
There is no free lunch. Risk and return are related.
Much like a football player who chooses to play without a helmet, you should not expect to be paid more for taking risks that can easily be avoided. Higher expected returns only come from bearing more risk that cannot be diversified away. Focus on eliminating risks that you should not expect a reward for taking, such as concentrating your portfolio in just a few stocks.
Don't guess. Invest.
Rather than relying on speculation, blind faith, or anecdotal evidence, concentrate on what can be controlled: Managing the transactional costs of investing, reducing the impact of taxes, and taking a long-term view. Design portfolios that are cost effective, tax efficient, and disciplined.
Good investment management is not about media hype or making forecasts. Good investment management is about understanding and managing risk around an overall financial plan.
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