Post #500 -- The Finale?

It started with a post called The Idea.  15 years and 499 blog posts later, I'm at #500.

Normally I'd be composing my annual entry on things I'd like to see happen next year.  (A couple of them actually happened, but the majority didn't, as is the norm.)  But I'm not going to do that this year.  In fact I may never do it again, because the time has come for me to take a (permanent?) sabbatical from this blog.

I never started a blog with the expectation that it would influence anyone or create a following.  I did it because at the time 1) it was a popular thing to do, and 2) I thought it would help organize my thoughts and possibly help my writing skills.  The former has been taken over by new technology (substacks and podcasting), while the latter....that probably did work out.  At the least, I have some good background material for the age 45-60 part of my future memoir.

Looking back at those previous entries, so much has happened and changed over 15 years, to me and to the world and how I view it.  If this is going to be my last post, I'm going to spend it by pulling the camera back to that long ago, and draw some big picture conclusions:

The world is sorely lacking critical thinkers.

I've always subtitled this blog "The random rants of a critical thinker."  I never meant it in a braggadocios way, but rather to spotlight a competency I have that, frankly, most people don't.  Most people believe, in full or part, whatever they hear or read.  They're either unable or unwilling to do their own objective research to determine what's true from false, or right from wrong.  Lots of my rants over the years made this clear, and it's a major, worsening problem in America.  If the 2024 national election proved anything, it's that propaganda rules when we don't have enough critical thinking.

Advances in personal technology are both the best and worst thing for America.

First the good:  We are so much more productive now than 15 years ago.  We're able to do more with less, and do it more efficiently.  I've had my sole proprietorship business for the past six years, and there is no way I could do it without the technology I have at my disposal -- some of which wasn't available 15 years ago.

That said, social media is softly killing this country.  It was great at first, and then rogue players moved in to monetize it and/or politicize it, because they know people are easily manipulated.  (This goes hand-in-hand with the prior paragraph.)  It makes people do bad things to themselves and to others.  In the worst case, it leads to autocracy and anarchy.

Music must have good lyrics to be good music.

'Nuff said.

Travel to other places is a very good thing.

I wouldn't say I've traveled extensively, and definitely not internationally, but I've traveled all over the country enough to know everyone should do it.  Every time I've been to a different region of the country, I've come back with my thinking reset as to how people and places aren't alike in how they go about things.  There are all kinds of people doing all kinds of things all kinds of ways, and it's great to see that.  People who don't travel don't see this, and tend to think their way, their beliefs, are the only ones.  That isn't good for them or anyone else. 

Cannabis deserves the same legal treatment as alcohol and prescription drugs.

The federal government insists on acting like marijuana / cannabis leads to worse outcomes than alcohol or prescription meds.  Really?  Worse than the tens of thousands of alcohol-related illnesses and drunk driving deaths?  Worse than the opioid or fentanyl crisis?  It's willful ignorance.  Most cannabis users are just going for at-home pain relief or a cartoon-watching buzz.  It calms them down, it doesn't make them hurt themselves or go out and hurt others.  It's beyond time for regulated, federal legalization, but it won't happen until the feds decide they want the tax revenue now going to the states.

Investing isn't costly, but it can be.

I'm not saying it's easy, but I am saying you don't have to pay so much to have others manage money for you.  You have to dig deep, find out where the hidden costs are, and not let the financial and insurance industrial complex work for them instead of for you.  For most, this simply means finding an advisor they trust.  Unfortunately, that usually means they end up going with some non-credentialed stranger they know from somebody who knows somebody who knows a person who they sometimes sit next to occasionally at church.  Like anything else you buy, caveat emptor.

So.....I guess that's all for now.  Don't forget to buy my memoir, but until then, peace out.

Is Thanksgiving Real

It's Thanksgiving week, which means I'm going to the well again for a list of things for which I am not thankful.  It's going to be a politically heavy list this year, because it's an easy fit....

The most corrupt, amoral, unethical person to be elected U.S. president, Trump.

All of the complicit, lying, sycophants of that person.

The right-wing Republican propaganda machine.

The stupidity of Americans, and by default, the American electorate.  I wrote about this 15 years ago!

Our lack of critical thinkers.  I wrote about this 13 years ago!

I'm sure I've said this in the past, maybe multiple times, but....reality television.

Tech bros.

Crypto bros.

Real estate commissions.

People who don't take care of their yards.

Door dings.

Spam texts and emails.

Drop The Anchor

I've written before about behavioral science, and my interest in the same, especially in the sub-area of economics.  In short, it's the study of why people persist doing certain things, even though the logical quantitative answer is to do something else.
 
There are a variety of terms that describe what causes these events.  One of them is referred to as 'anchoring', which is when people use initial information as a reference point for decisions.

For example, a car dealer might show someone a very expensive vehicle with a high price before showing a more modestly priced version.  That's more likely to make the buyer think they're getting a good deal for the latter car.

I'm having issues with anchoring right now, thanks to the process of buying and selling a house.  It's a great test of allowing (or not allowing) anchoring to influence behavior. 

The seller has to set a price, and although everyone assumes they'll take less, it still establishes a point from which negotiations start.  It's the same for a prospective buyer, who offers a purchase price that becomes an anchor for a seller counter-offer.

The anchoring effect is very powerful, even in non-financial situations.  Consider a contest to guess how many items are in a basket.  The first person to make a guess is going to influence the others making a guess, even though the first person has no additional knowledge beyond the others.

Probably the best way to avoid being influenced by anchoring is to get more reference points, if not ignoring the first choice/offer altogether.

On the other hand, if you want others to be influenced by your  anchoring, get your information/number out there ASAP!

Home Sweet Home

Last month, after a few years of looking for the 'right' place, my spouse and I purchased a new (actually 5-year old) house in suburban Des Moines.  We loved our residence of the past 22 years, which we located and built, but it was time to move on.

In those two decades, we've gone from a family of five with three teens or pre-teens, to a family of two.  We neither need nor want a large 2-story house on a big corner lot.  We want something newer and easier to maintain.

It's been a while since I've been engaged in all that comes with selling and buying a house.  Of course. I have a bulleted list of the my thoughts:

• After living in the same home with three children for 22 years, you accumulate A LOT of stuff.  Some of of it qualifies as valuable, some as keepsake, but way too much are long forgotten items with no reason to be kept, much less packed up and moved.  Get started early with packing.

• Even the keepsake items don't all deserve to be kept.  Some things I thought I'd keep until I was old to look back on as a fond memory.  And then I realized, that's what I'm doing right now!  So it was time for some of it to go.  It's hard, but take a picture and digitize it forever, and it'll be fine.

• Take it from me -- don't have a garage sale.  We did, but let's do some math.  If it takes two days to get it ready, two days for the sale, and one day to clean up what's left, that's five days times let's say eight hours equals 40 hours.  (A low guess.)  Then if you have very above-average sale of mostly $10 or $5 or $1 or less items, let's say you end up with $600.  That's $15 an hour -- not bad, but I value my time at 5x or 10x that.  It isn't worth it.  Sell the higher priced things, and donate or toss everything else. 

• As for the move in part, if at all possible, spend a few days cleaning and making any repairs to the new house when it's empty.  So much easier than maneuvering around boxes.  There's so much ancillary stuff to do anyway, like re-key the doors and connect the Wi-Fi.

• Last but not least and probably most, we need reform in the residential realtor industry.  Just a month ago the industry agreed to more transparency in the commissions they charge, but transparent doesn't mean less expensive.  Realtors have coalesced around the idea they are entitled to a 6% commission on the sale price, regardless of their time or effort.  There is no substantive negotiation about whether that commission percentage should apply based on the actual sale price or the length of time it might take to sell.  They think they deserve it, even before doing anything.  I think they should be embarrassed. 

It's tough to say goodbye to a place where so many milestones occurred.  That's what the memories are for.

On Turning 60

I turned 60 years old last week.  Much like my 40th and 50th birthdays, I've been very contemplative about it.  I'm mainly trying to determine how my life is different, for better or worse, than I thought it might be when I was younger.

It's easy to come up with the 'worse' part.  In your 20s and 30s, if you're thinking about the future at all, you're thinking of a lot of nice material things, like big houses and luxury cars and destination vacations.  You might be thinking of having a family, but you aren't worried about that deterring you from the material things.

Of course, the reality for most of us is we don't get all of that.  With hard work and good luck, you achieve some of those goals, but ultimately you realize there's a big difference between goals and dreams.

Meanwhile, I always conclude the 'better' of it is the non-material things.  Family.  Friends.  Health.  I'm old enough now that I don't care about having the biggest house or the nicest toys.

In fact, thanks to the lessons of time, it's a good feeling to not care so much about things that now seem trivial.  I still have goals (and dreams), but now the list is shorter.  Much shorter.

I said the same thing at 60 that I did and 40 and 50.  Achieving a new decade -- age itself -- is a gift.  I'm very satisfied with that.

Midway

I recently returned from a trip to the La Jolla / San Diego area.  I'd been there once previously, which I wrote about in 2021.  I want to add something to that summary -- this time, I toured the decommissioned aircraft carrier, the USS Midway.

The Midway was the main naval vessel involved in Operation Desert Storm, circa 1991.  It's now a museum, permanently docked in the San Diego harbor across from the Navy base on Coronado Island (where it just so happened two active aircraft carriers were docked).

Along with an audio tour, there were dozens of volunteer docents to help guide you around.  These were almost all retired Navy vets, so they could add great context to what you saw and heard.

About what you saw and heard about.....this is a short list:

The flight deck, full of past Naval aircraft.

The bridge.

The navigation room.

The communications room.

The lower decks, which included the barracks, the officers quarters, the galley and kitchen, the sick bay, the machine room, the boiler room, and much more.

It was mind-boggling to think of what it took to build the ship, and what it took to operate it a city of 4500 people on the sea.  Not to mention how something that weighs 100,000 tons can even float!

I highly recommend going to the USS Midway Museum.

Escape Pods

For something that is now so ingrained into our culture, only once before have I blogged about podcasts.  That was back in 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, when we all craved for new entertainment content.

There are so many more podcasts out there now.  Some are good, some are bad, and some only exist to make money for a producer without any social value.

I don't have time to listen to all of the podcasts I'd like -- there are too many of them, and/or their running time is too long.  (In the same way no movie needs to be longer than two hours, no podcast needs to be longer than 45 minutes.  And this is coming from someone who never listens to the commercials, nor listens at less than 1.5x speed.  To me, an hour-long podcast equals a three hour-long movie, and no one has the time or content to remain interested in that.)

As mentioned in 2020, my main go-to podcasts are those from the Freakonomics Network.  They have several now in addition to the main weekly podcast, including a newer one called The Economics Of Everyday Things.  It's about how some industries work, anything from Girl Scout cookies to car washes to body part sales(?).  Plus, it's always less than 30 minutes long -- see last paragraph.

A longer, similar podcast is called Search Engine, which is a deep-dive on a hodgepodge of topics that we might never think about.

For politics, you can't beat Pod Save America, hosted by the former Obama speechwriting crew.  If you don't lean progressive, a more middle-of-the-road podcast is Hacks On Tap, hosted by former democratic and republican political operatives.  (Mike Murphy, the republican, is as witty as they get.)

On the lighter side, I prefer Conan O'Brien Needs A Friend, in which he interviews mostly other comics.  His shorter fan-interview offshoot, Conan O'Brien Needs A Fan, is also great.  No one is funnier and more likable than Conan.

I know, I know, there are so many more that I'm sure would be great to hear, including some I've never even heard of yet.  (That doesn't include true crime or cold case stories, which I don't care about.)

This is as far as I can go in my current pre-retirement world.